Forexpros Daily Analysis Dec 31, 2009


Euro Dollar

The Euro fluctuated, breaking 1.4308 first, then breaking 1.4380 and flying above 1.44. And as we can see, the price is currently trading inside a falling channel on the hourly chart, with the top of the channel at 1.4449. Thus, we will consider this level as resistance of the day. If broken, we will see 1.45 since the targets for such a break are 1.4502 first, and then the first Fibonacci retracement level for medium-term (38.2%) at 1.4596. To keep a positive outlook for the short-term, it is preferred that we don’t break the support 1.4391, holding above it would improve the chances for more upside movement. But if it is broken, we expect the price to drop to 1.4330 first, and then test the support area that was obvious during the second half of this month 1.4264.

Support:
• 1.4391: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short-term.
• 1.4330: important intraday support from Tuesday.
• 1.4264: Dec 21st low.

Resistance:
• 1.4449: the top of the falling channel on the hourly chart.
• 1.4502: Oct 2nd low.
• 1.4596: Fibonacci 38.2% for the medium-term.

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USD/JPY

The Dollar-Yen broke the resistance area that caught our attention 92.31-92.52. Short-term resistance is provided by the falling trend line from yesterday’s high, currently at 92.50. And if this area is broken, the Dollar will take off, towards March 19th low 93.53, with a possibility to stop at 93.08, where there is a resistance that cannot be ignored. On the other hand, if the price fails to capitalize on the break of 92.31-92.52, a drop towards 91.30 where the rising trend line from 84.81, will follow. And if this level is broken, the price will drop towards the important 90.30, the most important support for the time being.

Support:
• 91.85: the moving average SMA100 on the hourly chart.
• 91.30: the rising trend line from 84.81.
• 90.38: Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole move from 88.91 to 92.24.

Resistance:
• 92.50: the falling trend line from yesterday’s high.
• 93.08: Jul 22nd low.
• 93.53: Mar 19h low.

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Forex trading by Munther Marji for Forexpros. See Forexpros for World Indices charts and other trading tools.

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