The Holidays Bring Cheerful Spirits

The Christmas rally started a little earlier, with the markets finishing the holiday shortened week on a strong note. The S&P 500 finished the week above resistance closing with a weekly gain of 2.18%. Global equity markets made new highs for 2009 with the Nasdaq composite leading the charge finishing the week up 3.4%. The dollar index started the week off on a positive note, but retraced much of its gains on Wednesday and Thursday.

Movement started on Tuesday as the National Association of Realtors said that sales of existing homes rose 7.4% in November from October to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.54 million units, which is the highest rate since February 2007. Buoyed by a tax credit for buyers and low interest rates, sales were 44% above November 2008’s figure, when fears over bank failures were near their peak. The median sales price last month was on existing homes was $172,600, up from $172,200 in October, the first monthly increase since June. Also of note was the release of final 3rd quarter GDP in the US. The government revised downward its earlier estimate of the economy's third-quarter growth rate to a lackluster annualized rate of 2.2% from the earlier estimate of 2.8%. Inventories were drawn down faster than previously believed, could mean more robust growth in the current 4th quarter.

Despite the better than expected housing data, one must note that the sector is still showing mixed signals. On one hand, prices have firmed up mainly for middle class homes in areas with short commutes, where investors and first time buyers are scrapping for bargains on foreclosed houses. On the other hand, prices of higher end homes are likely to keep falling, because of a glut in supply and greater difficulty of getting loans for such properties.

Another closely watched measure of home prices, the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index, also is improving. Its national index rose in the third quarter of 2009 from the prior quarter, its second consecutive quarterly increase. That index is down about 28% from its peak in the second quarter of 2006.

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