Forexpros Daily Analysis - 17/12/2009

Forexpros Daily Analysis Dec 17, 2009


Fundamental Analysis: German Ifo Business Climate Index

The German Information and Foschung (Ifo) Business Climate Index determines the business sentiment and conditions in the Euro-zone.
The reading is concluded from survey of about 7,000 businesses.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR.
Analysts forecast a reading of 93.90, down from 94.50.

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Euro Dollar

The Euro broke both the support & resistance of yeserday’s report, before choosing the downward road reaching both suggested targets 1.4445 & 1.4405. With that, the long-term Fibonacci 50% support (1.4445) was broken, and we expect to see Fibonacci 61.8% at 1.4280, and we might see it before the weekend. Short-term resistance is at 1.4452, and breaking it is the key to reach and test the most important resistance for short-term 1.4504. The importance of this resistance comes from being Fibonacci 61.8% for the short-term, and staying below it, would indicate that the rising move from yesterday’s low is just a short-term correction, while breaking it would means it is bigger than that, and would target 1.4574 as a first stop on the road to higher targets. Short-term support is at 1.4405 and breaking it would indicate a continuation of the drop to 1.4354 first, and then the important 1.4280.

Support:
• 1.4405: the rising trend line from yesterday’s low on intraday charts.
• 1.4354: Aug 27th low.
• 1.4445: Fibonacci 61.8% for the long-term (the rise from 1.3737 to 1.5143).

Resistance:
• 1.4452: Fibonacci 38.2% for the short-term.
• 1.4504: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short-term, and the most important resistance.
• 1.4574: intraday resistance from yesterday.

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USD/JPY

Dollar-Yen broke the resistance 89.72 and reached the first target 90.08 successfully. This continuation in rising was a result of breaking the falling trend line from 90.75. With this break, the Dollar has gained a technical advantage that should give it the strength to go on. But to keep this advantage, the price should hold above the broken trend line which is currently at 89.13. And before that, we have the short-term support at 89.87, breaking it is the key to a retest of the broken line, targeting 89.13, and if this one is broken we could see a sharp drop to the important Fibonacci support 87.87. On theother hand, the resistance 90.40 is resistance of the day, and breaking it will indicate ability to continue going up, targeting the well known 90.90 first, and then November 4th top 91.31.

Support:
• 89.87: short-term support.
• 89.13: the retest level of the broken trend line.
• 87.78: Fibonacci 50% for the whole move from 84.81 to 90.75.
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Resistance:
• 90.40: previous well known support/resistance area.
• 90.90: previous well known support/resistance area.
• 91.31: Nov 4th top.

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Forex trading analysis by Munther Marji for Forexpros. See our new commodities section on Forexpros.

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The number of Americans filing for initial unemployment insurance rose last week, the government said Thursday. Analysts had expected a decline.

There were 480,000 initial job claims filed in the week ended Dec. 12, up 7,000 from the previous week's revised 473,000, the Labor Department said.
A consensus estimate of economists surveyed by Briefing.com expected claims to decline to 465,000.

The 4-week moving average of initial claims totaled 467,000, down 5,250 from the previous week's revised average of 472,750.

This marks the second consecutive week that claims have climbed. But weekly claims have proven to be volatile with some pops but overall maintaining a downward trajectory. Analysts say that's normal for this time of year.

"With all the seasonal factors in play at this time of year, I'm not going to get too concerned over a couple of weeks of increases," said Robert Dye, senior economist at PNC Financial Services Group. "I expect the downward trend to steadily continue, but it wouldn't surprise me if we get another erratic week or two."