Thread: Fundamental Weekly Outlook, Dec 14-18

Fundamental Weekly Outlook, Dec 14-18


EU:
• Monday: France Current Account (Previous -3.7B, Forecast N/A). Euro-Zone Employment QoQ (Previous -0.5%, Forecast N/A) & YoY (Previous -1.8%, Forecast N/A). Euro-Zone Industrial Production MoM (Previous 0.3%, Forecast -0.7%) & YoY (Previous -12.9%, Forecast -10.8%).
• Tuesday: France Consumer Price Index (CPI) MoM (Previous 0.1%, Forecast 0.2%) & YoY (Previous -0.2%, Forecast 0.4%). Germany ZEW Survey Economic Sentiment (Previous 51.1, Forecast 50.0), ZEW Survey Current Situation (Previous -65.6, Forecast -60.1).
• Wednesday: France PMI Manufacturing (Previous 54.4, Forecast 54.8) & PMI Services (Previous 60.9, Forecast 60.0). Germany PMI Manufacturing (Previous 52.4, Forecast 52.6) & PMI Services (Previous 51.4, Forecast 51.9). Euro-Zone PMI Manufacturing (Previous 51.2, Forecast 51.5) & PMI Services (Previous 53.0, Forecast 53.2). Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index (CPI) MoM (Previous 0.2%, Forecast 0.2%) & YoY (Previous 0.6%, Forecast 0.6%).
• Friday: Germany Producer Price Index (PPI) MoM (Previous 0.0%, Forecast 0.2%) & YoY (Previous -7.6%, Forecast -5.9%). France Business Confidence Indicator (Previous 89, Forecast 91). Germany IFO - Business Climate (Previous 93.9, Forecast 94.5), IFO - Current Assessment (Previous 89.1, Forecast 90.0), IFO – Expectations (Previous 98.9, Forecast 99.0). Euro-Zone Current Account (Previous 3.7B, Forecast 5.8B).

US:
• Tuesday: Producer Price Index (PPI) MoM (Previous 0.3%, Forecast 0.8%) & YoY (Previous -1.9%, Forecast 1.7%). Core Producer Price Index (PPI) MoM (Previous -0.6%, Forecast 0.2%) & YoY (Previous 0.7%, Forecast 0.9%). Industrial Production (Previous 0.1%, Forecast 0.5%), Capacity Utilization (Previous 70.7%, Forecast 71.1%).
• Wednesday: Consumer Price Index (CPI) MoM (Previous 0.3%, Forecast 0.4%) & YoY (Previous -0.2%, Forecast 1.8%). Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) MoM (Previous 0.2%, Forecast 0.1%) & YoY (Previous 1.7%, Forecast 1.8%). Current Account (Previous -98.8B, Forecast -106.0B), Housing Starts (Previous 529K, Forecast 575K), Building Permits (Previous 552K, Forecast 570K), Fed Rate Decision (Previous 0.25%, Forecast 0.25%).
• Thursday: Initial Jobless Claims (Previous 474K, Forecast 466K), Leading Indicators (Previous 0.3%%, Forecast 0.7%), Philadelphia Fed. (Previous 16.7, Forecast 15.8), Bernanke Confirmation Vote Held in Senate Banking Committee.

JP:
• Monday: Tankan Manufacturers Index (Previous -33, Forecast -27). Industrial Production MoM (Previous 0.5%, Forecast N/A) & YoY (Previous -15.1%, Forecast N/A).
• Wednesday: Tertiary Industry Index MoM (Previous -0.5%, Forecast 0.5%). Machine Tool Orders YoY (Previous -8.6%, Forecast N/A).
• Thursday: Leading Index CI (Previous 89.7, Forecast N/A).
• Friday: BOJ Target Rate (Previous 0.1%, Forecast N/A).

UK:
• Tuesday: Consumer Price Index (CPI) MoM (Previous 0.2%, Forecast 0.2%) & YoY (Previous 1.5%, Forecast 1.8%).
• Wednesday: Jobless Claims Change (Previous 12.9K, Forecast 12.5K), ILO Unemployment Rate (Previous 7.8%, Forecast 7.9%).
• Thursday: Retail Sales MoM (Previous 0.4%, Forecast 0.5%) & YoY (Previous 3.4%, Forecast 3.7%). Bank of England Quarterly Inflation Report (Text Report).

AU:
• Tuesday: Reserve Bank's Board December Minutes (Text Report).
• Wednesday: Westpac Leading Index MoM (Previous 0.9%, Forecast N/A). Gross Domestic Product QoQ (Previous 0.6%, Forecast 0.4%) & YoY (Previous 0.6%, Forecast 0.7%).
• Thursday: New Home Sales (Previous -6.0%, Forecast N/A).

CA:
• Tuesday: Leading Indicators MoM (Previous 0.7%, Forecast N/A).
• Thursday: Consumer Price Index (CPI) MoM (Previous -0.1%, Forecast 0.3%) & YoY (Previous 0.1%, Forecast 0.8%). Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) MoM (Previous 0.1%, Forecast 0.1%) & YoY (Previous 1.8%, Forecast 1.2%).
• Friday: Wholesale Sales (Previous 0.2%, Forecast 0.1%)

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Fundamental analysis written by Munther Marji for Forexpros

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The American Petroleum Institute, an industry group, was to report weekly U.S. inventory data later Tuesday, and the government's Energy Information Administration will issue its more authoritative weekly stocks report early Wednesday.

A 10-day National Weather Service forecast late Monday called for lower-than-normal temperatures in most of the eastern United States, the world's biggest regional consumer of heating oil.

Higher demand for heating oil could help further draw down crude stocks, which stand around 7% higher than five-year seasonal averages in the United States as a sluggish economic recovery continues to cut into demand.

Increased industrial activity also may help oil demand recover. U.S. industrial production rose in November by 0.8%, the Federal Reserve said Tuesday, more than the 0.5% rise that most economists were expecting.

"There's a feeling we may see a drop in crude oil and distillate stocks," said Peter Beutel, president of Cameron Hanover in Connecticut. "And higher industrial use could be bullish for oil."