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SINGAPORE INDUSTRIAL OUTPUT FALLS 2.1%, LESS THAN FORECAST
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Singapore's industrial production continued to decline in September, though the pace of decrease has eased considerably since August, data from the Economic Development Board revealed on Thursday.
Industrial production dropped 2.1 percent year-on-year in September, following an 11.6 percent plunge in the prior month. That was also below the 4.8 percent decrease expected by economists. Production has been falling since October last year.
Excluding bio-medical manufacturing, industrial production rebounded 0.1 percent annually in September after a 12.7 percent slump in the previous month.
On a monthly basis, industrial production surged 10.7 percent in September, reversing a sharp 10.8 percent fall in August.
Among major clusters, production in the biomedical manufacturing industries fell the most, by 18.9 percent in September, as the pharmaceutical segment contracted 41.4 percent from last year.
The second-most significant decrease was observed in the chemicals cluster, which declined 12.9 percent.
At the same time, electronics output registered a double-digit annual growth of 10.2 percent, and that of the transport engineering segment posted an increase of 13.2 percent.
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EUROPEAN ECONOMIC NEWS PREVIEW: FRANCE CONSUMER CONFIDENCE DATA DUE
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Consumer sentiment survey data from France and business confidence from Italy are the major economic data due on Friday.
At 2.00 am ET, retail sales figures are due from Norway and Sweden.
At 2.45 am ET, France's statistical office INSEE publishes consumer confidence survey results for October. The consumer sentiment index is seen unchanged at 83.0.
At 3.00 am ET, Spain's INE is set to issue advance GDP estimates for the third quarter and retail sales for September. The economy is forecast to grow at a slower pace of 0.2 percent sequentially in the third quarter after rising 0.5 percent in the second quarter.
At 4.00 am ET, Italy's statistical office ISTAT releases business and consumer sentiment survey results. The business confidence index is seen at 96.0 in October, down from 96.4 in the previous month.
In the meantime, manufacturing Purchasing Managers' survey results are due from Austria.
At 6.30 am ET, Russia's central bank announces its monetary policy decision. The bank is set to raise its benchmark rate by 100 basis points to 14.00 percent.
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AUSTRALIA RETAIL SALES JUMP 0.9% IN SEPTEMBER
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The value of retail sales in Australia was up a seasonally adjusted 0.9 percent on month in September, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said on Monday - coming in at A$35.874 billion.
That blew away forecasts for an increase of 0.3 percent and was up sharply from the upwardly revised 0.3 percent in August (originally 0.2 percent).
Individually, sales rose for food, household goods, clothing, department store items, and other retail; sales were flat for cafes and restaurants.
On a yearly basis, retail sales rose 2.0 percent.
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YEN FALLS AFTER BOJ RATE DECISION
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At 11:28 pm ET in the early Asian session on Tuesday, the Bank of Japan announced its decision on interest rates to remain unchanged at -0.10 percent.
After the BoJ rate decision, the yen fell against its major rivals.
As of 11:30 pm ET, the yen was trading at 159.05 against the euro, 182.23 against the pound, 166.26 against the Swiss franc and 150.09 against the U.S. dollar.
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NZ DOLLAR FALLS AGAINST MAJORS
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The New Zealand dollar weakened against other major currencies in the Asian session on Wednesday.
The NZ dollar fell to 6-day lows of 0.5789 against the U.S. dollar and 1.8256 against the euro, from yesterday's closing quotes of 0.5825 and 1.8153, respectively.
Against the Australian dollar, the kiwi dropped to a 2-day low of 1.0922 from Tuesday's closing value of 1.0875.
The kiwi edged down to 87.56 against the yen, from yesterday's closing value of 88.35.
If the kiwi extends its downtrend, it is likely to find support around 0.56 against the greenback, 1.83 against the euro, 1.10 against the aussie and 86.00 against the yen.
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AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR RISES AGAINST MAJORS
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The Australian dollar strengthened against other major currencies in the Asian session on Thursday.
The Australian dollar rose to nearly a 5-week high of 96.77 against the yen, from an early low of 96.61.
Against the U.S. dollar and the euro, the aussie advanced to more than 3-week highs of 0.6439 and 1.6456 from yesterday's closing quotes of 0.6422 and 1.6484, respectively.
The aussie appreciated to more than a 3-month high of 0.8906 against the Canadian dollar, from yesterday's closing value of 0.8884.
The aussie edged up to 1.0935 against the NZ dollar, from Wednesday's closing value of 1.0924.
If the aussie extends its uptrend, it is likely to find resistance around 98.00 against the yen, 0.65 against the greenback, 1.63 against the euro, 0.90 against the loonie and 1.10 against the kiwi.
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MALAYSIAN RINGGIT RISES TO MORE THAN 2-WEEK HIGH AGAINST U.S. DOLLAR
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The Malaysian ringgit strengthened against the U.S. dollar in the Asian session on Friday. Against the greenback, the ringgit rose to more than a 2-week high of 4.7360 from yesterday's closing value of 4.7500.
If the ringgit extends its uptrend, it is likely to find resistance around the 4.70 area.
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YEN FALLS AGAINST MAJORS
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The Japanese yen weakened against other major currencies in the Asian session on Monday.
The yen fell to a 2-month low of 185.21 against the pound, from Friday's closing value of 184.86.
Against the euro and the Swiss fran, the yen slipped to 6-day lows of 160.68 and 166.76 from last week's closing quotes of 160.26 and 166.11, respectively.
The yen edged down to 149.68 against the U.S. dollar, from Friday's closing value of 149.37.
Against the Australia, the New Zealand and the Canadian dollars, the yen slipped to nearly a 5-month low of 97.51, nearly a 4-week low of 89.70 and nearly a 3-week low of 109.66 from last week's closing quotes of 97.27, 89.58 and 109.35, respectively.
If the yen extends its downtrend, it is likely to find support around 186.00 against the pound, 162.00 against the euro, 169.00 against the franc, 152.00 against the greenback, 98.00 against the aussie, 91.00 against the kiwi and 111.00 against the loonie.
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AUSTRALIA RAISES KEY INTEREST RATE BY 25 BPS
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Australia's central bank raised its benchmark rate by a quarter-point on Tuesday after holding the rate for four straight meetings. The policy board of the Reserve Bank of Australia headed by Michele Bullock decided to lift the cash rate target by 25 basis points to 4.35 percent.
The bank also increased the interest rate paid on Exchange Settlement balances by 25 basis points to 4.25 percent.
The bank had held interest rates steady since June following an increase of 4 percentage points since May last year.
"The Board judged an increase in interest rates was warranted today to be more assured that inflation would return to target in a reasonable timeframe," Bullock said.
Although inflation has passed its peak, it is still too high and is proving more persistent than expected a few months ago, the bank noted. Inflation is forecast to be around 3.5 percent by the end of 2024 and at the top of the target range of 2-3 percent by the end of 2025.
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CHINESE YUAN RISES TO NEAR 2-MONTH HIGH AGAINST U.S. DOLLAR
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The Chinese yuan strengthened against the U.S. dollar in the Asian session on Wednesday.
Against the greenback, the yuan rose to nearly a 2-month high of 7.2658 from a recent low of 7.2783. At yesterday's close, the yuan was trading at 7.2733 against the greenback.
If the yuan extends its uptrend, it is likely to find resistance around the 7.24 area.
The Chinese central bank sets central parity rate every morning and allows the yuan to fluctuate up to 2 percent from that level.
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NZ DOLLAR RISES AGAINST MAJORS
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The New Zealand dollar strengthened against other major currencies in the Asian session on Thursday.
The NZ dollar rose to a 2-day high of 1.0814 against the Australian dollar, from yesterday's closing value of 1.0823.
Against the U.S. dollar and the euro, the kiwi advanced to 0.5930 and 1.8062 from Wednesday's closing quotes of 0.5910 and 1.8104, respectively.
Moving away from a recent 2-day low of 89.13 against the yen, the kiwi edged up to 89.49.
If the kiwi extends its uptrend, it is likely to find resistance around 1.06 against the aussie, 0.60 against the greenback, 1.77 against the euro and 89.13 against the yen.
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AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR FALLS AGAINST MAJORS
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The Australian dollar weakened against other major currencies in the Asian session on Friday.
The Australian dollar fell to 9-day lows of 0.6352 against the U.S. dollar and 96.12 against the yen, from yesterday's closing quotes of 0.6366 and 96.34, respectively.
Against the euro and the Canadian dollar, the aussie slid to more than a 2-week low of 1.6791 and nearly a 2-week low of 0.8771 from Thursday's closing quotes of 1.6754 and 0.8789, respectively.
The aussie edged down to 1.0784 against the NZ dollar, from yesterday's closing value of 1.0801.
If the aussie extends its downtrend, it is likely to find support around 0.62 against the greenback, 94.00 against the yen, 1.69 against the euro, 0.85 against the loonie and 1.06 against the kiwi.
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YEN SLIDES AGAINST MAJORS
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The Japanese yen weakened against other major currencies in the Asian session on Monday.
The yen slid to more than a 15-year low of 162.08 against the euro and nearly a 2-week low of 151.70 against the U.S. dollar, from Friday's closing quotes of 161.82 and 151.50, respectively.
Against the pound, the yen dropped to 4-day lows of 185.55 and 96.50 from last week's closing quotes of 185.16 and 96.41, respectively.
The yen edged down to 168.11 against the Swiss franc, from Friday's closing value of 167.76.
Against the New Zealand and the Canadian dollars, the yen dropped to 89.39 and 109.83 from last week's closing quotes of 89.28 and 109.76, respectively.
If the yen extends its downtrend, it is likely to find support around 163.00 against the euro, 152.00 against the greenback, 187.00 against the pound, 98.00 against the aussie, 169.00 against the franc, 90.00 against the kiwi and 111.00 against the loonie.
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EUROPEAN ECONOMIC NEWS PREVIEW: UK LABOR MARKET DATA DUE
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The labor market statistics from the UK and economic sentiment survey results from Germany are the top economic news due on Tuesday.
At 2.00 am ET, the Office for National Statistics releases UK unemployment data. The jobless rate is forecast to fall to 4.3 percent in three months to September from 4.2 percent in the preceding period.
Consumer price data from Sweden is due at 2.00 am. Inflation is forecast to rise to 6.7 percent in October from 6.5 percent in September.
At 2.30 am ET, the Federal Statistical Office is set to issue Swiss producer prices for October. Economists forecast producer prices to rise 0.1 percent on month, in contrast to the 0.1 percent fall in September.
At 3.00 am ET, Spain's INE issues final consumer and harmonized prices for October. The flash estimate showed that consumer price inflation held steady at 3.5 percent.
At 5.00 am ET, Eurostat is slated to issue euro area flash GDP and employment for the third quarter. The preliminary flash estimate showed that GDP registered a quarterly contraction of 0.1 percent, in contrast to the 0.2 percent expansion in the second quarter.
In the meantime, Germany ZEW economic confidence survey data is due. The sentiment index is seen at 5.0 in November versus -1.1 in October.
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NZ DOLLAR RISES AGAINST MAJORS
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The New Zealand dollar strengthened against other major currencies in the Asian session on Wednesday.
The NZ dollar rose to an 8-1/2-year high of 90.72 against the yen and nearly a 5-week high of 0.6023 against the U.S. dollar, from yesterday's closing quotes of 90.35 and 0.6004, respectively.
Against the euro and the Australian dollar, the kiwi advanced to a 6-day high of 1.8064 and a 2-day high of 1.0798 from yesterday's closing quotes of 1.8117 and 1.0823, respectively.
If the kiwi extends its uptrend, it is likely to find resistance around 92.00 against the yen, 0.61 against the greenback, 1.78 against the euro and 1.06 against the aussie.
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CANADIAN DOLLAR DROPS AGAINST MOST MAJORS
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The Canadian dollar weakened against most major currencies in the Asian session on Thursday.
The Canadian dollar fell to a 2-day low of 1.3713 against the U.S. dollar, from yesterday's closing value of 1.3684.
Against the yen and the euro, the loonie dropped to 110.31 and 1.4861 from Wednesday's closing quotes of 110.50 and 1.4852, respectively.
If the loonie extends its downtrend, it is likely to find support 1.38 around against the greenback, 108.00 against the yen and 1.49 against the euro.
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MALAYSIA GDP DATA DUE ON FRIDAY
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Malaysia will on Friday release Q3 figures for gross domestic product, highlighting a light day for Asia-Pacific economic activity.
GDP is expected to expand 3.3 percent on year, up from 2.9 percent in the three months prior.
Singapore will provide October numbers for non-oil domestic exports; in September, exports were up 11.1 percent on month and down 13.2 percent on year.
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The U.S. stock market is on hold: Dow Jones grows by 0.01%
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There is a slight increase in the main indices on the American stock market: the Dow Jones increased by 0.01%, S&P by 0.13%, and Nasdaq by 0.08%. This occurred against the backdrop of investors digesting the latest news and comments from representatives of the U.S. Federal Reserve System. Michael Barr, Vice Chairman of the Federal Reserve, expressed the view that the Fed is approaching the peak of interest rate hikes, while other representatives emphasized the need for additional data on reducing inflation.
Meanwhile, Applied Materials (AMAT.O) shares lost 4% after a third-quarter report and news of a U.S. Department of Justice investigation into allegations of violating export restrictions to China. On the other hand, Gap's shares rose after publishing improved third-quarter results.
The market was further supported by a decrease in the yield of 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds, reaching a two-month low. The S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow indices marked the third consecutive week of growth, which became the longest weekly winning streak for S&P and Dow since July, and for Nasdaq since June.
Among the components of the Dow Jones index, the leaders of growth were shares of Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc, American Express Company, and Caterpillar Inc, which showed a significant increase in price.
Robert Fipps, director of Per Stirling in Austin, Texas, noted that a key factor in today's stock growth was the achievement of a two-month low in U.S. Treasury bond yields. He emphasized that despite the modest indicators of the main indices, there was noticeable activity in more cyclical sectors of the economy.
Fipps pointed to the weakness of technology stocks that day, however, he emphasized that the S&P 500 index hides stronger indicators in other sectors, including energy, industry, and finance.
The Dow Jones industrial index grew slightly, adding 1.81 points or 0.01%, and closing at 34,947.28. The S&P 500 increased by 5.78 points or 0.13%, reaching 4,514.02, while the Nasdaq Composite index grew by 11.81 points or 0.08%, closing at 14,125.48.
For the week, the S&P 500 index grew by 2.2%, Nasdaq increased by 2.4%, and Dow Jones rose by 1.9%.
Among the leaders of growth on the S&P 500 that day were shares of Ross Stores Inc, which rose by 7.22% to 128.82, Expedia Inc, which increased by 5.05% to 136.38, and shares of Albemarle Corp, which went up by 3.91%, closing at 127.39.
Jack McIntyre, a portfolio manager at Brandywine Global in Philadelphia, expressed the need to analyze recent market events and identify the next growth catalyst.
The energy sector, which grew by 2.1%, was the leader among the 11 key sectors of the S&P 500 index, thanks to an increase in oil prices by more than 4%. At the same time, the communication services index lost the most, especially due to a drop in Alphabet (GOOGL.O) shares by more than 1%. The technology sector was also among the weakest, with Microsoft (MSFT.O) shares losing 1.7% in value.
OpenAI, the producer of ChatGPT, supported by Microsoft, announced the departure of its CEO amidst statements from the board of directors about the insufficiency of his disclosures.
Shares of Amazon.com (AMZN.O) grew by 1.6%, after the company announced job cuts in the Alexa voice assistant division as part of a shift in business priorities and an increased focus on generative artificial intelligence.
The Russell 2000 index, which includes small-cap companies, rose by 1.4%, outperforming broader markets. This index, whose members benefit more from a reduction in credit rates than large companies, also showed the best results for the week, adding 5.4%.
Retail stocks were in demand: Ross Stores (ROST.O) shares increased by 7.2% after the company raised its annual profit forecast due to exceeding sales and profit expectations in the third quarter. Gap (GPS.N) shares also significantly rose by 30.6% thanks to the publication of better-than-expected quarterly results, driven by improved sales at Old Navy and reduced logistics expenses.
Shares of ChargePoint Holdings (CHPT.N) significantly fell by 35.5% after the company, specializing in electric vehicle charging networks, lowered its revenue forecast for the third quarter. In addition, ChargePoint announced the appointment of Rick Wilmer as CEO.
On American stock exchanges, a turnover of 10.05 billion shares was recorded, which is less than the average turnover of 11.04 billion shares over the last 20 sessions.
On the New York Stock Exchange, the number of rising issues exceeded the number of falling ones in a ratio of 2.65 to 1, while on Nasdaq this ratio was 2.16 to 1 in favor of rising companies. These data indicate the predominance of positive trends in the market, despite individual significant declines, such as that of ChargePoint Holdings.
The S&P 500 index recorded 18 new 52-week highs and one new low, while the Nasdaq Composite index registered 55 new highs and 97 new lows.
The CBOE Volatility Index, based on S&P 500 options, decreased by 3.63%, reaching a new monthly low of 13.80.
In the commodities market, gold futures for December delivery lost 0.22%, falling to $1,000 per troy ounce. Prices for WTI crude oil futures for December delivery rose by 3.91%, to $75.75 per barrel, and Brent crude oil futures for January delivery increased by 3.95%, reaching $80.48 per barrel.
In the foreign exchange market, the EUR/USD pair rose by 0.54% to 1.09, while the USD/JPY pair fell by 0.69%, to 149.68.
The U.S. Dollar Index futures decreased by 0.49%, reaching 103.73. These market movements reflect changes in economic outlooks and investors' reactions to current economic data and political events.
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U.S. DOLLAR FALLS AGAINST MAJORS
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The U.S. dollar weakened against other major currencies in the Asian session on Tuesday.
The U.S. dollar fell to nearly a 3-1/2-month low of 1.0966 against the euro, from yesterday's closing value of 1.0938.
Against the pound and the yen, the greenback dropped to near 2-1/2-month lows of 1.2541 and 147.24 from yesterday's closing quotes of 1.2504 and 148.36, respectively.
The greenback edged down to 0.8827 against the Swiss franc, from Monday's closing value of 0.8848.
Against the Australia and the New Zealand dollars, the greenback slid to near 3-1/2-month lows of 0.6587 and 0.6075 from yesterday's closing quotes of 0.6556 and 0.6036, respectively.
The greenback dropped to 1.3705 against the Canadian dollar, from Monday's closing value of 1.3724.
If the greenback extends its downtrend, it is likely to find support around 1.12 against the euro, 1.27 against the pound, 145.00 against the yen, 0.86 against the franc, 0.67 against the aussie, 0.61 against the kiwi and 1.34 against the loonie.
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DENMARK CONSUMER CONFIDENCE REMAINS NEGATIVE
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Danish consumers expressed a pessimistic approach in November, despite their confidence having improved slightly from October, figures from Statistics Denmark showed on Wednesday.
The consumer confidence index rose to -10.3 in November from -11.2 in the previous month.
The slight improvement in November was mainly attributed to the strengthening of the assessment of the family's current financial situation, the expectation of the family's future financial situation, and the desire to buy, the survey said.
Consumers' views towards their own financial situation in the next twelve months remained positive in November, and they rose to 5.2 from 2.5.
However, opinion regarding the general economic situation of the country over the next year worsened to -5.8 in November from -4.6 a month ago.
Households expect prices to rise more slowly over the next twelve months, and they also expect a rising trend for unemployment, the survey said.
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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Hot forecast for EUR/USD on November 22, 2023
Market trends do not unfold continuously as periodic pullbacks could happen. That is exactly what happened yesterday, despite the extremely weak data on existing home sales in the US, which fell by 4.1%, and has been decreasing for five consecutive months, with a total reduction of 11.9%.
At the beginning of the year, US home sales declined by 6.0%, but in February, it improved slightly, showing a 13.8% increase. Even so, the cumulative decrease is quite significant, naturally not inspiring any optimism. This should have resulted in dollar weakening, but pound fell instead.
The Fed's hawkish stance on monetary policy could not be the reason as the meeting took place before the sharp slowdown in inflation became known. Most likely, the movement is a technical rebound, which means that dollar will show its expected decline soon, especially since today, data on durable goods orders will be published. The figure is expected to fall by 2.8%. The potential 5,000 increase in jobless claims may also spark further dollar weakening.
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EUR/USD hit the lower range of the psychological level of 1.0950/1.1000, resulting in a decrease in the volume of long positions. This led to a pullback, which may also be due to the overbought condition of euro.
Looking at the RSI H4, there is an exit from the overbought area due to the pullback.
In the daily period, the indicator is moving near the 70 zone.
As for the Alligator H4 indicator, it ignored the pullback, with the moving MA lines pointing upwards.
Outlook
For further decline, traders need to keep the price below 1.0900, as that will spark a complete correction. Alternatively, there could be a decrease in the volume of short positions around the level of 1.0900, treating it as support. In this scenario, there will be another attempt to break the psychological level of 1.1000.
The complex indicator analysis points to an upward cycle in the short-term, medium-term and intraday periods.
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NZ DOLLAR RISES AGAINST MAJORS
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The New Zealand dollar strengthened against other major currencies in the Asian session on Thursday.
The NZ dollar rose to a 1-week high of 90.28 against the yen and a 2-day high of 1.8005 against the euro, from yesterday's closing quotes of 89.99 and 1.8084, respectively.
Against the U.S. and the Australian dollars, the kiwi edged up to 0.6054 and 1.0829 from Wednesday's closing quotes of 0.6021 and 1.0866, respectively.
If the kiwi extends its uptrend, it is likely to find resistance around 92.00 against the yen, 1.78 against the euro, 0.57 against the greenback and 1.06 against the aussie.
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EUROPEAN ECONOMIC NEWS PREVIEW: GERMANY GDP, BUSINESS CONFIDENCE DATA DUE
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Quarterly national accounts and business sentiment survey results from Germany are due on Friday, headlining a light day for the European economic news.
At 2.00 am ET, Destatis is scheduled to issue Germany's detailed GDP data for the third quarter. The initial estimate showed that the largest euro area economy contracted 0.1 percent sequentially, offsetting the 0.1 percent rise a quarter ago.
In the meantime, Statistics Sweden is set to release producer prices for October. At 3.00 am ET, Spain's statistical office INE releases producer price data for October. Prices had declined 8.6 percent annually in September.
At 4.00 am ET, Germany's ifo business confidence survey results for November are due. The business climate index is expected to rise to 87.5 from 86.9 in the previous month.
At 5.00 am ET, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde is set to speak at an event organized by the Deutsche Bundesbank in Frankfurt, Germany.
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CHINA INDUSTRIAL PROFITS CONTINUE TO RISE
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China industrial profits continued to increase in October albeit at a slower pace, the National Bureau of Statistics said Monday. Industrial profits grew 2.7 percent on a yearly basis in October. The pace of increase slowed notably from the 11.9 percent rise posted in September.
During January to October, industrial profits decreased 7.8 percent from the same period last year. Nonetheless, this was slightly slower than the 9 percent decline seen in the first nine months of the year, data showed.
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EUROPEAN ECONOMIC NEWS PREVIEW: GERMANY CONSUMER CONFIDENCE DATA DUE
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Consumer confidence survey results from Germany and France are due on Tuesday, headlining a busy day for the European economic news.
At 2.00 am ET, the market research group Gfk is scheduled to issue Germany's consumer confidence survey results. The forward-looking consumer sentiment is expected to rise to -27.9 in December from -28.1 in November.
At 2.45 am ET, France's statistical office INSEE publishes consumer sentiment survey results. Economists forecast the consumer sentiment index to remain unchanged at 84 in November. At 4.00 am ET, the European Central Bank releases monetary aggregates for October. M3 is forecast to fall 0.9 percent annually after declining 1.2 percent in September.
In the meantime, manufacturing Purchasing Managers' survey results are due from Austria.
At 6.00 am ET, retail sales data for October is due from Ireland.
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NZ DOLLAR RISES AGAINST MAJORS
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The New Zealand dollar strengthened against other major currencies in the Asian session on Wednesday.
The NZ dollar rose to nearly a 4-month high of 0.6209 against the U.S. dollar, from yesterday's closing value of 0.6136.
The kiwi advanced to nearly a 2-week high of 91.22 against the yen, from a recent 6-day low of 90.23.
Against the euro and the Australian dollar, the kiwi climbed to 1-1/2-month highs of 1.7742 and 1.0729 from yesterday's closing quotes of 1.7908 and 1.0833, respectively.
If the kiwi extends its uptrend, it is likely to find resistance around 0.64 against the greenback, 92.00 against the yen, 1.74 against the euro and 1.06 against the aussie.
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EUROPEAN ECONOMIC NEWS PREVIEW: EUROZONE INFLATION DATA DUE
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Flash inflation from the euro area and unemployment from Germany are the top economic news due on Thursday, headlining a busy day for the European economic news.
At 2.00 am ET, Destatis is scheduled to issue Germany's retail sales data for October. Sales are forecast to fall 1.9 percent annually after easing 4.3 percent a month ago.
At 2.45 am ET, France's statistical office INSEE publishes flash consumer prices, GDP, household consumption and producer prices. The statistical office is expected to confirm 0.1 percent sequential growth for the third quarter. Harmonized inflation is seen at 4.1 percent in November compared to 4.5 percent in October.
At 3.00 am ET, Switzerland's KOF leading index is due. Economists forecast the leading index to rise to 96.6 in November from 95.8 in October.
At 3.55 am ET, Germany's Federal Labour Agency is scheduled to release unemployment data for November. The number of unemployed is forecast to increase 22,000 after rising 30,000 in October.
At 4.00 am ET, Italy's ISTAT publishes unemployment data for October. The jobless rate is seen at 7.5 percent compared to 7.4 percent in September.
In the meantime, consumer prices and revised GDP figures are due from Poland.
At 5.00 am ET, Eurostat is set to issue euro area flash inflation and unemployment data. Inflation is expected to ease to 2.7 percent in November from 2.9 percent in October. The euro area jobless rate is seen unchanged at 6.5 percent in October.
Also, preliminary inflation figures are due from Italy.
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PHILIPPINES MANUFACTURING SECTOR ACCELERATES IN NOVEMBER - S&P GLOBAL
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The manufacturing sector in the Philippines continued to expand in November, and at a faster pace, the latest survey from S&P Global revealed on Friday with a manufacturing PMI score of 52.7.
That's up from 52.4 in October and it moves further above the boom-or-bust line of 50 that separates expansion from contraction.
The uptick in the headline figure reflected gains across the top two PMI components: new orders and output. Indeed, November saw rates of growth quicken to eight- and ten month highs, respectively.
Firms noted that strong demand conditions both in domestic and foreign markets, new client wins and increased contract work boosted overall sales and in turn spurred greater production.
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YEN RISES AGAINST MAJORS
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The Japanese yen strengthened against other major currencies in the Asian session on Monday.
The yen rose to a 1-month high of 159.11 against the euro and a 4-day high of 168.32 against the Swiss franc, from last week's closing quotes of 159.76 and 168.86, respectively.
The yen advanced to a 2-week high of 185.53 against the pound and nearly a 3-month high of 146.24 against the U.S. dollar, from Friday's closing quotes of 186.57 and 146.81, respectively.
Against the Australia, the New Zealand and the Canadian dollars, the yen rose to 4-day highs of 97.65, 90.89 and 108.39 from last week's closing quotes of 97.98, 91.14 and 108.76, respectively.
If the yen extends its uptrend, it is likely to find resistance around 157.00 against the euro, 164.00 against the franc, 180.00 against the pound, 143.00 against the greenback, 94.00 against the aussie, 87.00 against the kiwi and 105.00 against the loonie.
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AUSTRALIA CENTRAL BANK KEEPS RATE UNCHANGED
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The Reserve Bank of Australia left its benchmark rate unchanged on Tuesday after a quarter point hike in November.
The policy board of the RBA, governed by Michele Bullock, decided to maintain the cash rate target at 4.35 percent.
The board also retained the interest rate paid on Exchange Settlement balances at 4.25 percent.
"Holding the cash rate steady at this meeting will allow time to assess the impact of the increases in interest rates on demand, inflation and the labour market," the bank said.
At the November meeting, the bank lifted the rate by 25 basis points to a 12-year high, ending a four-session long pause.
The bank said the case for further tightening of monetary policy to bring inflation back to the target in a reasonable timeframe will depend upon the data and the evolving assessment of risks.
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Dollar versus Gold: New Employment Data in the U.S. and Its Impact on the Market
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This significant rise in gold prices was recorded on Monday, but by Tuesday, the situation had dramatically changed: the price decreased by 0.5%, reaching $2,020.29 per ounce. This decline followed the record achievement and a reduction of more than $100 in a single day, closing the market session with a loss of over 2%.
It is noteworthy that American gold futures also showed a decrease, falling by 0.3% to $2,036.30.
Experts predict that the growth that led to Monday's record may temporarily subside. This is due to uncertainties around the prospects of the U.S. monetary and credit policy. However, geopolitical risks may contribute to gold reaching new heights in the future.
Jim Wyckoff, a senior analyst at Kitco Metals, emphasized that the gold market has taken a pause after the recent rally. He also suggested that the $2,000 level might become a new floor for gold in the market.
Significant impact on market trends is also exerted by employment data in the U.S. Recent reports showed a decrease in the number of job openings in the country to a level not seen in more than two and a half years. This indicates that the rise in interest rates is starting to affect the demand for labor.
Thus, investors are eagerly awaiting the U.S. non-farm employment report for November, which will be published on Friday. These data may provide a clearer understanding of the future movements of U.S. interest rates, which, in turn, will affect the dynamics of both the dollar and gold.
The dollar, in turn, has strengthened its position, showing a growth of 0.2% and approaching a two-week high. Such strengthening of the currency made gold more expensive for holders of foreign currencies, which also played a role in changing market dynamics.
Traders are actively assessing current economic trends, especially the likelihood of a reduction in interest rates by the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) in March. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of such a reduction is currently estimated at 66%. Historically, a decrease in interest rates is a factor that typically provides support in the market for non-interest-bearing bullion such as gold.
In light of this, experts from Commerzbank suggest that the price of gold may reach $2,100 per troy ounce by the second half of 2024. This forecast is based on the expectation that the Fed will begin the process of lowering interest rates.
Against this backdrop, there is also a decline in prices of other precious metals. Spot silver fell by 1.4%, reaching a price of $24.16 per ounce. The price of platinum also decreased, by 1.8%, settling at $899.80 per ounce.
Palladium, continuing the trend, also showed a decline of 4.1%, reaching a more than five-year low at $936.24 per ounce. This decrease highlights the overall trend of instability in the precious metals market, influenced by both economic and geopolitical factors.
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USD/JPY Day I Bearish continuation expected?
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The USD/JPY chart is currently indicating the potential for a bearish breakout, with significant support and resistance levels at play.
Support Levels:
At 144869.00, the 1st support is characterized as "An Overlap support." This level signifies a potential area where buying interest may emerge, potentially preventing further downward movement. Additionally, the 2nd support at 141.98 is identified as "An Overlap support," further reinforcing its potential significance in providing support to the price.
Resistance Levels:
On the resistance side, the 1st resistance level at 148.28 is labeled as "An Overlap resistance." This level represents a notable barrier to further upward price movement and warrants attention from traders.
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Roller coaster on the Market: Dollar Steady, Euro Nears Minimum in Anticipation of ECB Rates
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Meanwhile, the Bank of Canada on Wednesday left its key overnight rate at 5% and, unlike other banks, left the possibility of further increases open, expressing concern about inflation and acknowledging economic slowdown and overall price reduction.
The Canadian dollar slightly strengthened against the American dollar, reaching 1.36 Canadian dollars per American dollar.
In other currency markets, the Japanese yen strengthened by 0.16% to 147.07 yen per dollar. The offshore Chinese yuan fell slightly by 0.02%, reaching 7.1717 yuan per dollar. The Australian dollar rose by 0.03%, to 0.655 US dollars.
In the cryptocurrency sector, Bitcoin rose by 0.19%, reaching $43,910.11.
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JAPAN PRODUCER PRICE DATA DUE ON TUESDAY
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Japan will on Tuesday release November numbers for producer prices, highlighting a light day for Asia-Pacific economic activity.
Producer prices are expected to rise 0.2 percent on month and 0.1 percent on year after slipping 0.4 percent on month and gaining 0.8 percent on year in October.
Australia will see November results for the indexes of business confidence and business conditions from National Australia Bank; in October, their scores were -2 and +13, respectively. Australia also will see December results for the consumer sentiment index from Westpac Bank; in November, the index fell 2.6 percent.
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DUTCH CONSUMER PRICES REBOUND AS ESTIMATED
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The Netherlands' consumer prices increased as initially estimated in November, the latest data from the Central Bureau of Statistics showed Tuesday.
The consumer price index rose 1.6 percent year-over-year in November, reversing a 0.4 percent increase in October. That was in line with the flash data published on November 30.
Excluding energy, inflation eased to 4.2 percent in November from 5.1 percent in the previous month.
The increase in inflation was mainly due to energy price developments. Energy prices were 4.3 percent cheaper than last year, but in October, prices were 5.8 percent lower.
Meanwhile, the annual price growth in food products eased to 6.3 percent in November from 7.9 percent in the previous month.
However, consumer prices dropped 1.0 percent on a monthly basis in November.
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NZ DOLLAR FALLS AGAINST MAJORS
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The New Zealand dollar weakened against other major currencies in the late Asian session on Wednesday.
The New Zealand dollar fell to more than a 2-week low of 0.6094 against the U.S. dollar and nearly a 2-week low of 1.7700 against the euro, from yesterday's closing quotes of 0.6132 and 1.7591, respectively.
Against the yen and the Australian dollar, the kiwi slipped to 2-day lows of 88.72 and 1.0754 from Tuesday's closing quotes of 89.18 and 1.0689, respectively.
If the kiwi extends its downtrend, it is likely to find support around 0.59 against the greenback, 1.79 against the euro, 87.00 against the yen and 1.08 against the aussie.
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AUSTRALIA ADDS 61,500 JOBS IN NOVEMBER
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Australia gained 61,500 jobs in November, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said on Friday - for a total of 14,257,00.
That blew away expectations for an increase of 11,000 jobs following the addition of 55,000 jobs in October.
Full-time employment increased by 57,000 to 9,905,900, while part-time employment increased by 4,500 to 4,351,600.
The jobless rate ticked up to a seasonally adjusted 3.9 percent versus expectations for 3.8 percent, which would have been unchanged from the previous month following an upward revision from 3.7 percent.
The participation rate improved to 67.2 percent, beating expectations for 66.9 percent and up from 67.0 percent in October.
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