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U.S. DOLLAR FALLS AGAINST MAJORS
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The U.S. dollar weakened against other major currencies in the Asian session on Thursday.
The U.S. dollar fell to an 8-1/2 year low of 0.8651 against the Swiss franc and nearly a 2-month low of 138.07 against the yen, from yesterday's closing quotes of 0.8669 and 138.49, respectively.
Against the euro and the pound, the greenback dropped to near 1-1/2-year lows of 1.1149 and 1.3019 from yesterday's closing quotes of 1.1130 and 1.2987, respectively.
The greenback edged down to 1.3166 against the Canadian dollar, from Wednesday's closing value of 1.3186.
If the greenback extends its downtrend, it is likely to find support around 0.84 against the franc, 133.00 against the yen, 1.13 against the euro, 1.33 against the pound and 1.29 against the loonie.
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EUROPEAN ECONOMIC NEWS PREVIEW: EUROZONE FOREIGN TRADE DATA DUE
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Foreign trade from the euro area is the top economic news due on Friday, headlining a light day for the European economic news.
At 2.00 am ET, Destatis is scheduled to issue Germany's wholesale prices for June. Economists forecast wholesale prices to drop 1.2 percent annually after a 2.6 percent decrease in May.
In the meantime, consumer prices from Sweden and foreign trade data from Norway are due. Sweden's inflation is expected to slow to 9.1 percent in June from 9.7 percent in May.
Half an hour later, the Federal Statistical Office releases Swiss producer and import prices for June. Producer and import prices are forecast to fall 1.2 percent annually after easing 0.3 percent in May.
At 4.00 am ET, external trade data is due from Italy. The trade surplus is expected to rise to EUR 1.45 billion in May from EUR 0.3 billion in April.
At 5.00 am ET, Eurostat is scheduled to issue euro area foreign trade data for May. The trade deficit is seen at EUR 7.6 billion compared to a EUR 11.7 billion shortfall a month ago.
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AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR FALLS AGAINST MAJORS
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The Australian dollar weakened against other major currencies in the Asian session on Monday.
The Australian dollar fell to a 5-day low of 1.6493 against the euro, from Friday's closing value of 1.6411.
Against the U.S. dollar and the yen, the aussie slipped to 4-day lows of 0.6806 and 94.36 from last week's closing quotes of 0.6836 and 94.86, respectively.
The aussie edged down to 0.9001 against the Canadian dollar, from last week's closing value of 0.9032.
Moving away from an early high of 1.0750 against the NZ dollar, the aussie slipped to 1.0724.
If the aussie extends its downtrend, it is likely to find support around 1.68 against the euro, 0.65 against the greenback, 91.00 against the yen, 0.88 against the loonie and 1.05 against the kiwi.
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BTC update for July 18,.2023 - Key support cluster on the test
Technical analysis:
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BTC/USD has been trading downside and the key support cluster at the price of $30.000 is on the test. I see 2 scenarios that can be in the play.
In case of the rejection of the support zone at $29.600, I see potential for the rally towards upper extreme of the trading range at $31.400
In case of the downside breakout of the support zone at $29.600, I see potential for the further drop towards $28.000
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NEW ZEALAND INFLATION CLIMBS 6.0% ON YEAR IN Q2
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New Zealand's consumer prices rose 6.0 percent on year in the second quarter of 2023, Statistics New Zealand said on Wednesday.
That exceeded expectations for an increase of 5.9 percent and was down from 6.7 percent in the previous three months.
On a seasonally adjusted quarterly basis, inflation rose 1.1 percent - again topping forecasts for 1.0 percent and easing from 1.2 percent in the three months prior.
The quarterly tradeable inflation rate was 0.8 percent and the non-tradeable inflation rate was 1.3 percent.
The annual tradeable inflation rate was 5.2 percent and the non-tradeable inflation rate was 6.6 percent.
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JAPAN TRADE SURPLUS Y43.05 BILLION IN JUNE
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Japan posted a merchandise trade surplus of 43.048 billion yen in June, the Ministry of Finance said on Thursday.
That beat forecasts for a deficit of 46.7 billion following the downwardly revised 1,381.9 billion yen shortfall in May (originally -1,372.5 billion yen).
Exports rose 1.5 percent on year to 8.744 trillion yen, missed expectations for an increase of 2.2 percent following the 0.6 percent gain in the previous month.
Imports slumped an annual 12.9 percent to 8.701 trillion yen versus expectations for a decline of 11.3 percent following the upwardly revised 9.8 percent gain a month earlier (originally -9.9 percent).
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EUROPEAN ECONOMIC NEWS PREVIEW: UK RETAIL SALES & PUBLIC SECTOR FINANCE DATA DUE
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Retail sales and public sector finances from the UK are due on Friday, headlining a light day for the European economic news.
At 2.00 am ET, the Office for National Statistics releases UK retail sales and public sector finances figures. Retail sales are forecast to grow 0.2 percent on month in June, slower than the 0.3 percent increase in May. The budget deficit is expected to widen to GBP 27.5 billion in June from GBP 19.2 billion in the previous month.
At 4.00 am ET, retail sales data is due from Poland. Economists forecast sales to fall 4.7 percent annually in June after easing 6.8 percent in May.
At 6.30 am ET, Russia's central bank announces its monetary policy decision. The bank is expected to raise its key interest rate by 50 basis points to 8.00 percent.
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JAPAN MANUFACTURING PMI SLIPS TO 49.4 IN JUL7 - JIBUN
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The manufacturing sector in Japan continued to contract in July, and at a faster pace, the latest survey from Jibun Bank revealed on Monday with a manufacturing PMI score of 49.4.
That's down from 49.8 in June, and it moves further beneath the boom-or-bust line of 50 that separates expansion from contraction.
Both output and new orders were scaled back further in the latest survey period, with the rate of reduction in incoming business accelerating to the strongest seen for four months. There was further evidence of easing cost pressures as indicated by the rate of input price inflation dipping to the lowest since February 2021, though manufacturers looked to pass higher cost burdens to clients to a greater extent for the first time since April. Concurrently, business sentiment eased from June yet remained at the joint-second highest level seen since the start of 2022.
The survey also showed that the services PMI fell from 54.0 in June to 53.9 in July.
The expansion in incoming business was modest, and the slowest recorded for six months. Moreover, July data indicated that activity growth was often fueled by the completion of existing orders, as the level of outstanding business at Japanese service providers reduced for the first time in a year and at the fastest pace since April 2022.
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EUROPEAN ECONOMIC NEWS PREVIEW: GERMAN IFO BUSINESS CONFIDENCE DATA DUE
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Business confidence from Germany and bank lending survey results from the euro area are the top economic news due on Tuesday.
At 2.00 am ET, producer price data is due from Statistics Sweden. Economists forecast producer prices to fall 5.9 percent on a yearly basis in June, bigger than the 2.1 percent fall in May.
At 4.00 am ET, the ifo Institute is scheduled to publish Germany's business confidence survey data. The business climate index is forecast to fall to 88.0 in July from 88.5 in the previous month.
In the meantime, the European Central Bank releases bank lending survey results.
Also, unemployment data is due from Poland. Economists expect the jobless rate to fall to 5.0 percent in June from 5.1 percent in May.
At 6.00 am ET, the Confederation of British Industry is set to release Industrial Trends survey data for July. The order book balance is seen at -17 compared to -15 in June.
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