Forexpros.com Daily Analysis - 10/12/2008

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Forex Analysis - Daily

Today’s US Dollar Trading

• US data ignored for technical factors, equities pressure EURO
• EURO makes a try for the 1.3000 handle and is rejected
• Key support in GBP challenged


Overnight Preview

• Look for more two-way action next 24 hours


Looking Ahead to Wednesday
All times EASTERN (-5 GMT)
• 10:00am USD Wholesale Inventories m/m
• 10:35am USD Crude Oil Inventories
• 2:00pm USD Federal Budget Balance


Summary
It was a disappointing day today for equities traders as the follow-on buying seen overnight failed to inspire traders in New York today; the DJIA shed over 200 points near the end of the day putting pressure on USD bears. Crude oil lost over $1.50/BBL as well putting conflicting fundamentals in play for equities traders. The net result for traders in the majors was solid two-way whipsaw over the course of New York trade; EURO rallying to post a nine-day high at 1.3002 looking very much like a test of the resting stops rumored to be at the 1.3030 area untouched before dropping back as equities gave back recent gains. Traders note that tight liquidity plagued the rate as EURO dropped briefly under the 1.2900 handle before rising to hold the 1.2920 area. New highs were welcome but traders note pressure from the 50 day MA likely offered technical traders a place to sell. GBP rallied off early lows at 1.4677 to rally past the 1.4800 handle looking like the rate would reverse hard into the end of day but sellers found a voice at the 1.4840 area and the rate dropped back to the near term pivot area of 1.4740 area; recent stops cleared on the dip under 1.4740 makes this area critical for both bulls and bears with downside follow-through selling likely to be met with bids as will upside be met with offers the next 24 hours. Traders expect more two-way action with the upside likely to cap around 1.5000 initially with downside support at 1.4680 area. USD/JPY followed the equities lower making new lows in New York at 91.92 and under pressure for a test of the 90.00 handle soon. Traders note that cross-spreaders for EURO and Sterling continue to draw the lead for the USD pairs. USD/CHF fell to a low print at 1.2006 before rallying off lows to trade back above the 1.2060 area; traders note that pressure from above the 1.2150 area is still intact but with a third day holding above the 1.2020 area the bears may be losing momentum in this pair. A surprise rate cut of 75 BP by the BOC was enough to encourage bulls to press USD/CAD higher for a high print early in New York at 1.2747 before the rate reversed to trade the low 1.2500 handle but buyers again showed up on the dip and the rate is firm now above the 1.2630 area. In my view, the whippy conditions suggest that the USD is trying hard to make a top at current levels with volumes lower it is clear that the USD is still under pressure on the rallies. No new highs for the USD were met with any conviction and sellers are likely to make a stand into the end of the week.


GBP USD Daily

Resistance 3: 1.5200
Resistance 2: 1.5100/10
Resistance 1: 1.5050
Latest New York: 1.4750
Support 1: 1.4550
Support 2: 1.4460/70
Support 3: 1.4420


Comments
Rate extends losses to make a test of lows; then rallies to test resistance. Support at 1.4720/30 area holds after stops cleared; rate is holding 1.4740 to close. More upside now due within 24 hours if dips continue to be bought above the 1.4720 area. Close back near the 1.4850 area will confirm willing buyers on the dips. Aggressive traders can look to ADD to open longs anytime looking for a push through and a close back above 1.5000. Some spillover from EURO likely. Good bids reported but supply seen from semi-official names overnight. Traders note solid two-way action. Sellers hold control above 1.5100 area so far; OK to buy if flat on a dip. Profit-taking likely to result in a squeeze on the further strength. Technical trade overnight again. Traders note liquidity is only moderate and still on the lower side.
Data due Wednesday: All times EASTERN (-5 GMT)
NONE


EURO USD Daily

Resistance 3: 1.3080
Resistance 2: 1.3050
Resistance 1: 1.3000/10
Latest New York: 1.2913
Support 1: 1.2580
Support 2: 1.2550
Support 3: 1.2480


Comments
Rate continues to hold at support. Spillover from GBP helps hold the rate above support at 1.2800/10 area. Buyers are willing on dips. Possible reversal now in play but the rate needs to firm above the 1.2850 area in my view. Bids are likely building under the 1.2800 area now as expected; stops cleared near-term. Dips likely to be bought hard now that sellers couldn’t make a stand over 1.3000 with confidence on the first try; a test of stops at 1.3030 likely. Aggressive traders can ADD to open longs again. Stops building above the market around the 1.2950/60 area cleared so if sellers are active they may place them there again. Support also from cross-spreaders as they unwind Yen. Rate is an absolute screaming buy in my view—I can’t see further weakness being ignored by the buyers. Traders note the rate is finding profit-taking bids on dips so far despite the uncertainty in the market.
Data due Wednesday: All times EASTERN (-5 GMT)
2:00am EUR German WPI m/m
2:45am EUR French Industrial Production m/m
4:00am EUR Italian Industrial Production m/m

Join us for the Afternoon US Dollar Wrap-Up daily at 3:15 pm Central/Chicago time (GMT -6)

Analysis Provided by: Forexpros.com - Written by Jason Alan Jankovsky

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