Are Forex trading signals reliable?
It is hard to argue that trading signals are false. If a signal is misleading, one of two things can happen: a) it doesn't work 100% of the time, but it does work 70% of the time, and you just happened to be in the 30%; b) their predictive power can change over time; something that used to work 70% of the time now works 60%, then 50%, which is basically a coin toss; or c) if your signal is misleading, you are using the wrong signal. Because it worked 65% of the time in the past, it is simple to say retrospectively that something like the crossing of two moving averages above or below the price graph is a buy signal. However, if you try to put it into action, you might find that the signal is worthless due to limitations like commissions, loss of predictive power, and time lag. Is that a sign that no signal works? No. But it also means that you can't really tell if a signal is as good as it looks, if it will work, or if your signal is the best.