Bitcoin: The Santa Powell Rally?
It would appear that everyone believes they have the Federal Reserve figured out. The "herd" consensus appears to believe that in order to prevent a significant economic downturn, the Federal Reserve will need to back off its hawkish agenda and refrain from raising interest rates to the extent that was previously implied. This speech was delivered by Chairman Powell on the previous Wednesday, just IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING a significant holiday observed in the United States. But I do know that markets are irrational, and his speech lined up very well with the seasonal holiday optimism that is typical during this time of year. Although I do not pretend to have the answers or know what the Federal Reserve is going to do next, I do know that markets are irrational. As a result, the stock market, which was still buzzing from the euphoria brought on by the holiday season and itching for a squeeze, delivered an impressive rally. The holiday present that Powell has in store for the markets.
Where is the connection between this and Bitcoin swing trading or investing? As I have mentioned a number of times in my most recent streams, there is a STRONG correlation between Bitcoin and the stock market (the S&P in particular). The fact that there is a distinct connection between the two is what is significant, not the reasons why. Do not lose sight of the bigger picture; the stock market has not yet demonstrated any kind of broader trend change. This means that resistance levels are still likely to hold and lower prices are likely to be tested. A happy stock market will likely lead Bitcoin into the range of high resistance; however, do not lose sight of the bigger picture. Bitcoin tends to move in the same direction as the stock market.
The bond market, which typically goes before the stock market, has not YET demonstrated that interest rates have reached their maximum level. The prices of the futures contract for the 10 year note are still moving erratically around a significant resistance. I will be more persuaded when bond prices start breaking major levels and presenting a more bullish structure. I don't pay attention to what anyone has to say; instead, I focus my attention on the specific evidence that can be found on charts.
What this ultimately means for Bitcoin is as follows: It is likely that a short-term squeeze into the low 18Ks will play out over the course of the next couple of weeks. Be sure not to lose track of the bigger picture, which is defined by the 15,500 AREA LOW and the 18,500 AREA HIGH. In terms of swing trades, I would be willing to discuss a swing trade short idea with you IF a suitable setup can be found in the area around the low 18K level. If 18,000 is removed, I will not take any action and will instead reevaluate the levels.
There is the potential for a large number of day trade opportunities on the long side if there is a squeeze into the low 18Ks. The location is not at all desirable for swing trades, and the level of risk is excessive for both long and short positions. Therefore, there are NO swing trades that can be made off the existing higher low formation.
Where do we stand with investments? In the event that the Federal Reserve turns out to be less hawkish than expected and the current state of the economy reveals significant signs of weakness, the coming couple of quarters will be an ideal time to accumulate risk assets, but only in SMALL doses. The present moment is a good time to start planning out your portfolio. My goal is to put together a speculative growth portfolio that will include high potential stocks as well as alternative coins, each of which will be arranged according to the level of risk they present. I will be open and transparent about certain details. To bring something to your attention, with regard to Bitcoin and the alternative cryptocurrencies, we are still confronted with significant regulatory changes, which brings about a very high degree of uncertainty. Therefore, DO NOT get your hopes up and DO NOT get too excited. Even if supportive monetary policy is implemented, this market still has a lot of challenges to overcome. Because of this, any portfolio allocations that are made will be SMALL.
I am grateful that you took the time to consider both my analysis and perspective. I really do hope that it is of some use to you.
