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Market updates on June 11
More at: http://bit.ly/2X9R8gT
11.06.2019
On Tuesday, the improved market sentiment supported risky assets such as stocks, emerging-market currencies, and crude oil.
Oil benchmarks have been trying to recover on the improved market sentiment. Talks that OPEC and its allies would continue its program of oil output cuts supported the oil market. However, the effect was limited. WTI moved up but with small gains. Up to now, the oil benchmark has been trading near 53.60. The resistance is located at 54.48. However, the downward pressure is high. If the benchmark is not able to break above 54.48. We will see a decline to 51.70. Brent rose less than WTI. The benchmark reached a high at 62.86. However, bears were stronger and Brent moved down. The support is located at 60.60.
The Chinese yuan succeeds to appreciate against the USD. On Friday, USD/CNH reached the highest level of the year at 6.9613. However, the improved sentiment encouraged Chinese currency. Up to now, the pair has been trading near 6.9242 moving to the support at 6.9165. A close below this level will lead to the further appreciation of the CNH. The next level to touch is 6.90. In the case of risk aversion, USD/CNH will turn around and will move towards 6.9470 targeting the top near 6.9614.
The Mexican peso keeps gaining strength against the US dollar. USD/MXN has been moving down for the 3 days in a row. If bears manage to pull the pair below 50-day simple MA at 19.08, we will see a further decline to 19.02. If the pair rebounds, we may anticipate a rise towards 19.24. The next resistance is at 19.3120.
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Risk management
http://bit.ly/2F4MUg8
Risk management is the key element of Forex trading. It’s better to understand this simple fact rather sooner than later and put a lot of efforts into mastering this science. By definition, risk management is the identification, analysis, assessment, control, and avoidance, minimization, or elimination of unacceptable risks. The risk that exists for Forex traders is simple to understand: it’s the ever-present risk of a bad trade that is closed with a loss.
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MARKET UPDATES
More at: http://bit.ly/2F7PiTz
13.06.2019
The Australian dollar weakened because of the bigger-than-expected unemployment rate figure. On H4, AUD/USD has been targeting the first support at 0.69. A close below this level will provoke a further decline to 0.6870 with a test of 0.6887. RSI and Stochastic Oscillators are in the oversold area, the rise of the pair will be confirmed as soon as RSI crosses the 30 level bottom up and Stochastic oscillator crosses the signal line. In the case of the rebound, the important resistance is located at 0.6933.
The Swiss franc rose on the Swiss National Bank statement. Although, the central bank kept the interest rate on hold and didn’t provide any hints on a soon increase, comments about the possible weakness of the euro and the USD supported the Swiss currency. As a result, USD/CHF fell. On H4, the pair reached the support at 0.9921 (50-period MA) but rebounded. The first resistance is located at 0.9956, a break above this level will signal a continuation of the upward movement. However, the resistance is strong and we may see a re-test of 0.9921. A break below this level will lift risks of the decline to 0.9888.
Brent has risen significantly after news about oil tankers being attacked in the Gulf of Oman. Up to now, the oil benchmark has been moving to the first resistance at 63.73 with a test of 63.
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Heads up to the FOMC statement
Read at: http://bit.ly/2KV8WFT
17.06.2019
The Federal Open Market Committee will make its statement and announce the official rate on June 19, at 21:00 MT time.
Despite the demands by US President Donald Trump to cut the interest rate, no changes to it are expected. Now, policymakers keep the interest rate at 2.5%. However, we may find out the hints on the possibility of a rate cut later this year. Wednesday’s statement will show how the US-China trade war and recent weaker economic data affect the Fed decisions.
• If the Fed is hawkish, the USD will go up;
• If the Fed is dovish, the USD will go down.
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The new stimulus for the euro? Mario Draghi sent EUR/USD lower on the dovish
hints.
Check at: http://bit.ly/2KpcjFK
18.06.2019
During today’s speech, the ECB President Mario Draghi made remarks on using a rate cut as a primary tool for an economic stimulus.
On the H4, EUR/USD fell to the support at 1.1179 during the European trading hours. At the moment, the pair is correcting to the upside. The first resistance is placed at 1.1211. If the positive momentum is short-lived, the pair will break the 1.1179 level and try to test the support at 1.1165.
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Market updates on June 19
http://bit.ly/2IpSETM
19.06.2019
Key events ahead:
British CPI – 11:30 MT time
Forecast: 2%
Canadian CPI – 15:30 MT time
Forecast: +0.1%
Speech by the ECB president Mario Draghi – 17:00 MT time
FOMC statement – 21:00 MT time
After the plunge of the euro on the dovish comments by the ECB President, EUR/USD has been consolidating near the support at 1.1187 on the H4. If bears manage to break this level, the next support levels will lie at 1.1173 and 1.1165. Bulls need to push the pair higher to the resistance at 1.1209 to confirm their strength. The next resistance will lie at 1.1221. Traders will focus their attention to the fresh comments by the ECB president later today and to the FOMC meeting at 21:00 MT.
US President Donald Trump had a telephone conversation with Chinese President Xi yesterday. The leaders agreed to meet during the G20 Summit in Japan. The news increased the risk appetite in the market. The risk-on sentiment pushed the oil prices and the Canadian dollar up.
The price for WTI retested the $54.28 level on the news. On the daily chart, from the upside, the next resistance levels are placed at $55.71 and $57.60. Bears need to push the pair back to the support at $50.78 to confirm their strength. The next key level lies at $48.47.
Brent, in its turn, retested the upper border of the consolidation range at $62.66. The next resistance is placed at $63.6. In the case of the fall, we need to keep an eye on the lower border of the consolidation at $57.6. The next support is at $57.5.
On the H4, USD/CAD bounced from the 200-period SMA at 1.3427 and plunged below the 100-period SMA. The pair has tested the lows below the 1.3373 level. If bears continue to drive the loonie down, the next support will lie at 1.3357. On the other hand, pay attention to the resistance at 1.3409. The next level for bulls will lie at 1.3419. Next, the CPI release and the FOMC meeting will likely determine the direction for the pair.
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Market updates on June 20
Read at: http://bit.ly/2x6SjyY
20.06.2019
Key events ahead:
The BOE monetary policy summary – 14:00 MT time
Yesterday, the Fed Chair Jerome Powell hinted the possibility of a rate cut as early as next month. His impatient tone pushed the EUR/USD pair higher. On H4, bulls successfully broke the 50-period SMA. At the moment the EUR is testing the resistance at 1.1294. The next resistance lies at 1.1316. If this level is broken, the next level in focus for bulls will be placed close to the descending trendline at 1.1344. From the downside, we need to pay attention to the support at 1.1257. As soon as it's broken, the next support will lie at 1.1234 (100-period SMA). After that, bears will target the zone between 1.1224 and 1.1213.
USD/JPY fell on the dovish Fed, too. On H4, the pair found the support at 107.64. If the USD continues to weaken, the next support will lie at 107.29. On the flipside, we need to pay attention to the resistance levels at 108.3 and 108.64.
GBP/USD has been supported ahead of the BOE monetary policy summary. At the moment, it is trading near the resistance at 1.2710 on the H4. The next resistance levels lie at 1.2749 and 1.2780. If the GBP is supported today by the comment of Mark Carney, the next key level will lie at 1.2837. Bears need to keep an eye on the support levels at 1.2651 (100-period SMA), 1.2612 and 1.2557.
The Australian dollar has been rising on the hawkish comments by the RBA governor. Right now, the aussie is rising towards the resistance at 0.6931 (100-period SMA). If this level is broken, the next resistance will be placed between 0.6958 and 0.6966. Bears need to pull AUD/USD below 0.6913-0.6905 to confirm their strength. In that case, the next key level for them will lie at 0.6873.
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Market updates on June 20
Read at: http://bit.ly/2x6SjyY
20.06.2019
Key events ahead:
The BOE monetary policy summary – 14:00 MT time
Yesterday, the Fed Chair Jerome Powell hinted the possibility of a rate cut as early as next month. His impatient tone pushed the EUR/USD pair higher. On H4, bulls successfully broke the 50-period SMA. At the moment the EUR is testing the resistance at 1.1294. The next resistance lies at 1.1316. If this level is broken, the next level in focus for bulls will be placed close to the descending trendline at 1.1344. From the downside, we need to pay attention to the support at 1.1257. As soon as it's broken, the next support will lie at 1.1234 (100-period SMA). After that, bears will target the zone between 1.1224 and 1.1213.
USD/JPY fell on the dovish Fed, too. On H4, the pair found the support at 107.64. If the USD continues to weaken, the next support will lie at 107.29. On the flipside, we need to pay attention to the resistance levels at 108.3 and 108.64.
GBP/USD has been supported ahead of the BOE monetary policy summary. At the moment, it is trading near the resistance at 1.2710 on the H4. The next resistance levels lie at 1.2749 and 1.2780. If the GBP is supported today by the comment of Mark Carney, the next key level will lie at 1.2837. Bears need to keep an eye on the support levels at 1.2651 (100-period SMA), 1.2612 and 1.2557.
The Australian dollar has been rising on the hawkish comments by the RBA governor. Right now, the aussie is rising towards the resistance at 0.6931 (100-period SMA). If this level is broken, the next resistance will be placed between 0.6958 and 0.6966. Bears need to pull AUD/USD below 0.6913-0.6905 to confirm their strength. In that case, the next key level for them will lie at 0.6873.
https://cdn.fbs.com/img/analyticnews...x320_q80v3.jpg
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Market updates on June 20
Read at: http://bit.ly/2x6SjyY
20.06.2019
Key events ahead:
The BOE monetary policy summary – 14:00 MT time
Yesterday, the Fed Chair Jerome Powell hinted the possibility of a rate cut as early as next month. His impatient tone pushed the EUR/USD pair higher. On H4, bulls successfully broke the 50-period SMA. At the moment the EUR is testing the resistance at 1.1294. The next resistance lies at 1.1316. If this level is broken, the next level in focus for bulls will be placed close to the descending trendline at 1.1344. From the downside, we need to pay attention to the support at 1.1257. As soon as it's broken, the next support will lie at 1.1234 (100-period SMA). After that, bears will target the zone between 1.1224 and 1.1213.
USD/JPY fell on the dovish Fed, too. On H4, the pair found the support at 107.64. If the USD continues to weaken, the next support will lie at 107.29. On the flipside, we need to pay attention to the resistance levels at 108.3 and 108.64.
GBP/USD has been supported ahead of the BOE monetary policy summary. At the moment, it is trading near the resistance at 1.2710 on the H4. The next resistance levels lie at 1.2749 and 1.2780. If the GBP is supported today by the comment of Mark Carney, the next key level will lie at 1.2837. Bears need to keep an eye on the support levels at 1.2651 (100-period SMA), 1.2612 and 1.2557.
The Australian dollar has been rising on the hawkish comments by the RBA governor. Right now, the aussie is rising towards the resistance at 0.6931 (100-period SMA). If this level is broken, the next resistance will be placed between 0.6958 and 0.6966. Bears need to pull AUD/USD below 0.6913-0.6905 to confirm their strength. In that case, the next key level for them will lie at 0.6873.
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Weekly Cryptonews
More at: http://bit.ly/2RtcYXw
21.06.2019
Brian Kelly, chief executive of investment management firm BKCM:
Bitcoin is ... digital gold. And, in my opinion, it’s probably a lot better than gold, but there is no trusted third party involved, and that’s the huge difference.
This week was super optimistic for Bitcoin bulls. Many positive events in the crypto market, including the announcement of Facebook’s crypto project Libra, pushed the digital asset higher. At the moment, it is looking forward to the breakout of the $9,800 level on the daily chart. If it happens, the next resistance will lie at $10,700. As far as it is broken, the further rise may be limited by the $11,420-$11,777 levels. From the downside, we need to pay attention to the $8,940, $8,664 and $7,970 levels. Awesome oscillator is moving upwards, which is a good signal of the possible further rise.
https://telegra.ph/file/9e17c23f8415bd94bccce.png
Regulations:
·The South Korean crypto regulator promised to pay damages to users in case of hackers’ attacks or system lags.
·The Brazilian authorities obligated local and international crypto exchange platforms to share almost all of the users’ transactions.
Crypto announces:
·The Ethereum developer Justin Drake announced that the switch to Ethereum 2.0 was planned to start on January 3, 2020.
·On Tuesday, Facebook's crypto project Libra was presented. Mark Zuckerberg introduced a new website, where you can find the white paper of a project. After the critics by different governments, the developers noted that the project would share with authorities the users' data. Also, Libra Investment token was introduced. The launch of Facebook's cryptocurrency is expected next year.
·Litecoin Foundation together with Bibox exchange platform and Ternio startup will release a debit crypto card.
·CEO of TRON announced the update of the network to the new version called Odyssey 3.6, to increase the protection and the possibility of dApps creation.
New developments:
·100 of leading Japanese producers, including Mitsubishi Electric and Yaskawa Electric, agreed to launch a collaborative blockchain system for the data exchange.
·The IT department of Samsung launches products for using blockchain in different types of business.
·Firefox developers detected and eliminated the vulnerability which could be used for stealing crypto. It’s recommended to update the browser to the latest version.
·The leading international consulting company PwC launched the Halo instrument for providing guarantee services in crypto payments.
·Japanese messenger LINE can get a resolution to create its own crypto exchange platform soon.
Current prices (last update 15:16 MT time):
Bitcoin $9,835
DASH $165.78
Ethereum $233.05
Litecoin: $138.94
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The GDP growth may push the USD up
More at: http://bit.ly/2J63Mo6
25.06.2019
The United States will release the level of final GDP growth on June 27, at 15:30 MT.
This indicator is the broadest measure of economic activity, that is why traders pay high attention to it. Last time it came out lower than the expectations (2.2% vs. 2.4%). The negative data raised concerns over the slowdown of the US economy and was one of the reasons behind the projections of the rate cut by the Fed. As a result, the USD weakened. However, this time the figures may lead to a different outcome.
• If the actual level of GDP growth is higher than the forecasts, the USD will go up;
• If the actual level of GDP growth is lower than the forecasts, the USD will go down
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Weekly Cryptonews
More at: http://bit.ly/2XKwnc9
28.06.2019
Joe Kerner, CNBC journalist:
"Fiat currency is the currency for government, Libra is for corporations and the only Bitcoin was the asset for the people. I feel like a Bitcoin evangelist right now and stand by it. First of all, who made Facebook in charge to give out currency as and when they please. Who even anointed them, especially with their history?"
The week has been emotionally unstable for BTC traders. After the surge during the first part of the week, when the price for Bitcoin tested the levels above $13,800, the digital asset fell below $11,000 on Thursday. At the moment of writing, the digital currency has been trying to recover. It has already tested the resistance at $12,020. If bulls manage to break this level, the next resistance will be placed at $12,927. From the downside, the first support is placed at $10,563. After the break of this level, the further fall will be limited by the $9,168 level.
Regulations:
· The Chinese authorities unexpectedly named Bitcoin as a safe haven for investors.
· US CFTC allowed the trading of Bitcoin futures on the LedgerX crypto exchange platform.
· The authorities of Malta wants to obligate the registration on the blockchain of all the transactions with the real estate.
Crypto announces:
· During the dump of BTC, Coinbase and BitMEX crypto exchange platform failed stress test and were functioning with glitches.
· The Singapore exchange platform Bitrue was hacked on Thursday. Hackers withdrew around $4.2 million in XRP and ADA.
· JPMorgan prepares to test its token with some of its corporate clients.
New developments:
· The Brave blockchain browser’s developers are working on the integration of the Ethereum, Ledger and Trezor crypto wallets.
· SWIFT will offer the usage of instant payments through the GPI platform to blockchain companies.
Current prices (last update 17:19 MT time)
Bitcoin $11,790
DASH $165.11
Ethereum $306.24
Litecoin: $119.19
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Charts in MT4
In this video, we’ll talk about the key part of the trading terminal – price charts.
In the previous video, we saw that there are several ways to open a new chart in MT4.
You can either click “File” – “New chart” or the “New Chart Icon” in the standard toolbar.
Let’s know more about to use our account!
http://bit.ly/2Xh5IUA
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Market updates on July 2
Check the graphs: http://bit.ly/2YpCMqc
02.07.2019
During the early trading hours, the Australian central bank cut its interest rate to 1% with the dovish outlook. As the decision was already priced in, the Australian dollar tested the ground below 50-period SMA ahead of the meeting but bounced back on the H4 chart. At the moment it is moving towards the resistance at 0.6994. The next resistance is placed at 0.7007. After the breakout of this level, keep an eye on the resistance at 0.7022. From the downside, bears need to pull the pair towards the 0.6963-0.6956 zone. After the breakout, the fall towards the support at 0.6947 is possible.
·Yesterday, the US threatened to raise tariffs on $4 billion of additional EU goods due to the dispute over aircraft subsidies. Combined with the comments on the further easing by the ECB policymakers, the news pulled the euro below the 50-period and 100-period SMAs on H4. Bears need to break the support at 1.1280 to pull EUR/USD lower. The next support levels will be placed at 1.1269 and 1.1257. On the other hand, if bulls try to push the pair up, they will, at first, reach the resistance at 1.1306 (100-period SMA). After that, they face resistance at 1.3190. If this level is broken, the next one will lie at 1.1348 (50-period SMA). RSI oscillator is about to leave the oversold zone, which may provide a buying opportunity. Pay attention to the speech by the FOMC member Williams, which may affect the EUR/USD pair.
·The uncertainties for the British pound remain, as one of the leading candidates on the post of the UK Prime Minister plans to leave the EU without a deal on October 31. The cable has been trying to stick below the 1.2623 on H4. The next support levels will be placed at 1.2612 and 1.2603. From the upside, buyers will pay attention to the 1.2648 level. After the breakout, the pair will rise as far as the 1.2670 level (100-period SMA) is reached.
·The greenback has risen significantly against the Chinese yuan. The USD/CNH has been testing the resistance at 6.8855 on the H4. The next significant level is placed at 6.8917. The PBOC set USD/CNY reference rate for today at 6.8513, that is why we may anticipate the fall of the pair. Keep an eye on the support levels at 6.8636, 6.8578 and 6.8486.
· Gold has been trading in a narrow range between $1,383 and $1,393 levels on H4. If the $1,393 level is broken, the next resistance lies at $1,404. After the breakout, the bullish strength may be limited by the resistance at $1,411. Bears need to pay attention to the $1,383 and $1,364 levels.
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Market updates on July 4
More at: http://bit.ly/2JnflY9
04.07.2019
What currency pairs to watch today?
After the test of the 61.8% Fibo near the 1.1270 level on H4, the EUR/USD pair has been ranging between this level and resistance at 1.1294 (50% Fibo level). The bullish strength will be confirmed if the pair manages to break the current resistance and stick above the 100-period SMA. In that case, the rise may be limited by the next resistance at 1.1343 (50-period SMA). From the downside, the break of the 1.1270 level will increase the risks of the further fall towards the 1.1252 level (200-period SMA). This is also the border of the ascending trading channel.
Yesterday, GBP/USD slid towards the 1.2556 level. On H4, the pair is currently consolidating between 1.2556 and 1.2589-1.2597 levels. The weakness of the GBP will put additional pressure to the pair. As a result, if the 1.2556 level is broken, the next support will lie at 1.2510. On the other hand, the inability of bears to break the 1.2556 level will help bulls to retest the upper border of the consolidation range between 1.2589 and 1.2597. If these levels are broken, the pair will rise to the next resistance at 1.2632.
AUD/USD was unable to stick near the strong resistance at 0.7047 and fell below the 0.7022 level at the beginning of the day. Bulls need to break this level to restore the upward moving channel. However, MACD formed a bearish divergence with the price that is why we may expect further fall. From the downside, the 0.7011 and 0.7 levels are important for bears.
The kiwi has fallen below the 0.6693 level towards the 0.6674 level, which lies close to the 23.6% Fibo and 50-period SMA. The strength of bears will be confirmed if the pair manages to fall below this level and target the next support at 0.6656. The next key level for sellers will lie at 0.6629. If buyers take back control over the market, the kiwi will retest the resistance at 0.6693. The break of this level make it possible to retest the 0.6717 level.
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Non-farm payrolls: what pairs to watch?
Check the charts: http://bit.ly/2XsipvY
05.07.2019
Analysts anticipate the level of non-farm payrolls to increase by 162K jobs (vs. 75K previously). At the same time, the level of average hourly earnings is forecast to advance by 0.3% (vs. 0.2% previously) and the unemployment rate is expected to stay stable at 3.6%. If the NFP and average hourly earnings are higher and the unemployment rate is lower than the forecasts, the USD will go up. Be careful with your trades as the USD gets super volatile after the release.
CHECK THE STRATEGY OF TRADING THE NFP HERE
AND JOIN THE LIVE SESSION OF TRADING THE NFP WITH FBS ANALYST ON OUR FACEBOOK PAGE!
The USD has got stronger ahead of the release, but will the situation change after 15:30 MT?
· On H4, EUR/USD has crossed the 1.1270 level (61.8% Fibo) and is currently moving downwards to the 1.1257 level, which lies close to the 200-period SMA and the lower border of the ascending channel. If the employment data is positive, the pair will fall below the 1.1257 level towards the next support at 1.1223. There is the possibility for EUR/USD to reach the next support at 1.1219 and test the next level at 1.1202, of bearish pressure is strong. On the other hand, if the employment data disappoints, EUR/USD will rise back to the resistance at 1.1288, jump above the 50% Fibo level and go higher to the next resistance at 1.1319.
· GBP/USD has been testing the lower border of the consolidation range at 1.2556 on H4. If the USD gets stronger on the release, the fall towards the next support at 1.2510 will be possible. From the upside, pay attention to the resistance levels at 1.2589, 1.2604 and 1.2635.
· USD/JPY has jumped above the 100-period SMA on H4 in anticipation of the release. The next resistance levels for the pair lie at 108.12, 108.36 and 108.49. In case of a negative release, USD/JPY will fall back to 107.74. If this level is broken, the next support will lie at 107.56. Stochastic indicator is about to form a crossover within the oversold zone, which may provide us selling opportunity.
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5 important events this week will bring us!
More at: http://bit.ly/2GcNkSi
15.07.2019
US retail sales and core retail sales (Tue, 15:30 MT (12:30 GMT time)) – According to analysts, both headline and core retail sales will advance by 0.1%. Higher figures will boost the USD.
Speech by the Fed Chair Jerome Powell (Tue, 20:00 MT (17:00 GMT time)) – If Mr. Powell provides supportive comments for the USD this time, the US dollar will go up.
British CPI (Wed, 11:30 MT (8:30 GMT time)) – The indicator is expected to increase by 2%. If the actual release outperforms the forecasts, the GBP will rise.
Australian jobs data (Thu, 4:30 MT (1:30 GMT time)) – Analysts anticipate the slowdown in the employment change (from +42.3K last time to +9.1K) and the stable level of the unemployment rate at 5.2%. If the actual figures of employment change are higher and the unemployment rate is lower than the forecasts, the Australian dollar will move up.
Canadian core retail sales (Fri, 15:30 MT (12:30 GMT time)) – The indicator is forecast to increase by 0.3%. Greater figures will be positive for the loonie.
Hot news:
After the release of Chinese GDP growth showed the slowdown, reaching only 6.2%, US President Donald Trump tweeted that China wants to make a trade deal soon.
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Market updates on July 16
More at: http://bit.ly/2xVy6wl
16.07.2019
Speech by the BOE Governor Mark Carney – 15:00 MT time
If the governor’s comments regarding monetary policy are hawkish, the British pound will move up.
Speech by the FOMC member Bowman – 15:15 MT time
If the policymaker softens his comments concerning the rate cut, the USD will go up.
US retail sales and core retail sales – 15:30 MT time
The key release for the USD today. Both headline and core indicators are expected to advance by 0.1%. Higher figures will bring positive momentum for the USD.
Speech by the Fed Chair Powell – 20:00 MT time
Speech by the FOMC member Evans – 22:30 MT time
Pay attention to the hints on the rate cut by the Fed speakers.
The New Zealand dollar was supported today by the release of its CPI during the Asian trading session. The indicator came out in line with the forecasts as it advanced by 0.6%. On H4, NZD/USD retested the resistance at 0.6734 but failed to break it. If the USD is supported today, the pair will move lower to the support at 0.6716. The next key support levels lie at 0.67 and 0.6670. From the upside, pay attention to the resistance at 0.6734. If this level is broken, the further rise will be limited by the 0.6748 level. RSI is about to leave the overbought zone and Stochastic indicator formed a crossover. These facts may provide us a short-term selling opportunity.
The British pound weakened significantly ahead of the employment data and the speech by the BOE governor. It has tested the ground below the 1.2479 level on H4. The next support in the focus of bears will lie at 1.2439. If the cable reverses, the pair will retest the 1.2520 level. If this resistance is broken, bulls will target the 1.2538 level. Stochastic indicator formed a crossover within the oversold zone.
EUR/USD has been consolidating between the 1.1284 and the 1.1236 levels since July 11. Today it has already tested the levels below the 50-period SMA at 1.1249. If the USD is supported today, bears will break the 1.1236 level and target the next support at 1.1220. Key resistance levels for the euro are 1.1263, 1.1274 and 1.1284.
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Crab
The Crab is another harmonic pattern that is derived from the Gartley pattern. The special thing about it is the long XA and CD swings. The point D is far away and lies beyond the starting point X. This is what differentiates the Crab from other harmonic patterns.
Learn more with article!
http://bit.ly/2JCtgei
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Market updates on July 19
http://bit.ly/2Y0tcc8
19.07.2019
Key events ahead:
Core retail sales – 15:30 MT (12:30 GMT) time
Yesterday, the speech by New York Fed President John Williams sent the US dollar lower. According to his words, the measures are needed to prevent disaster in the US economy. After that, his comments were confirmed by the FOMC member Richard Clarida. However, the comments by the NY Fed President Williams were clarified by the New York Fed, where the institution noted about the academic character of the Williams’ comments.
On H4, EUR/USD rose by 58 pips during the American trading session and tested the 200-period SMA at 1.1280. After the reassuring comments by the NY Fed, bears tried to pull the pair lower to the 50-period SMA. At the moment, EUR/USD is testing the support at 1.1253. The next support for bears will lie at 1.1237. From the upside, the first resistance lies at 1.1263. After the breakout, wait for the pair to reach the strong resistance zone at 1.1274-1.1280.
The USD/CAD pair is awaiting the release of core retail sales at 15:30 MT time. If the actual figures outperform the forecasts, the pair will slide below the 1.3019 level. The next support will lie at 1.3003, which is the lower border of the downward trading channel. Otherwise, the first resistance level will be placed at 1.3060 (50-period SMA). The next resistance will lie at 1.3077 (100-period SMA).
Gold reacted to the dovish speeches by the Fed members and the news that US ship took defensive action against Iranian drone. The yellow metal rose to its highest level since 2013 and tested the levels above the resistance at $1,448 on H4. Now, the price for gold is correcting to the downside. If it continues to weaken, the first support will lie at $1,423. If this level is broken, the next support will lie at $1,412. If bulls take over the market once again, XAU/USD will retest the $1,448 level.
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5 important events this week will bring us!
Read more: http://bit.ly/2Z5Iy0v
22.07.2019
French and German flash services PMI, German flash manufacturing PMI (Wed, 10:15 MT and 10:30 MT (7:15 GMT and 7:30 GMT)) – According to the forecasts, French flash services PMI will decline to 52.7, while German data will show mixed results with flash manufacturing PMI increasing to 45.1 and flash services PMI falling to 55.3 points. Higher figures will support the EUR.
Speech by the RBA governor Philip Lowe (Thu, 6:05 MT (3:05 GMT)) – If the head of the bank is hawkish, the AUD will rise.
ECB monetary policy statement (Thu, 14:45 MT (11:45 GMT)) – We will wait for more hints on the possible easing by the European central bank. If they are confirmed, the EUR may suffer. Also, pay attention to the press conference with the ECB president Mario Draghi at 15:30 MT (13:30 GMT) time. His comments may show us a clearer picture of the future steps by the bank.
US core durable goods orders (Thu, 15:30 MT (13:30 GMT)) – Analysts forecast an increase by 0.2%. If the actual level of indicator is greater, the USD will go up.
US advance GDP (Fri, 15:30 MT (13:30 GMT)) – The GDP growth for the US is expected to advance by 1.8%. A higher level will be good for the USD bulls.
Hot news:
Great Britain is awaiting the leadership voting contest for the Conservative party on Tuesday. The outcome will determine the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom. The members of the party will choose between Boris Johnson and Jeremy Hunt. Most analysts see Mr. Johnson, the hard-Brexit follower, taking the office. Some ministers do not support his candidature and resign ahead of the elections’ outcome. The political uncertainties within the leading party weaken the British pound. It is recommended to follow the headlines, as more negative news puts additional pressure on the GBP. The outcome of the contest will be announced after the 19:00 MT (16:00 GMT) time.
The oil prices surged after the British tanker was seized by the Iranian military forces over the weekend. The conflict in the Middle East is what driving crude’s prices now.
According to the Chinese press, Chinese companies started to seek for new purchases of US agricultural products. Some of the analysists see this news as the positive step towards the restart of the US-China trade talks.
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Will the ECB president change his tone?
More at: http://bit.ly/30PbIBs
23.07.2019
The European Central Bank will publish its monetary policy statement and announce the official rate on July 25, at 14:45 MT time. After that, the ECB president Mario Draghi will conduct a press conference at 15:30 MT time. We anticipate no changes to the current interest rate, which is held at 0%. However, the ECB president Mario Draghi may throw hints on the possible changes to the current monetary policy and provide comments on the current economic outlook. Last time, Mr. Draghi suggested that the European economy needed additional stimulus for better conditions. His dovish comments pulled the euro lower. If the ECB president changes his tone this time, the situation will be different.
• If the ECB is hawkish, the euro will rise;
• If the ECB is dovish, the euro will fall.
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Market updates on July 24
Check the charts: http://bit.ly/30UqKWz
24.07.2019
EUR/USD weakened on the lower-than-expected PMIs. The data disappointed with French flash services PMI falling to 52.2 points (vs. expected 52.7 points) and German flash manufacturing PMI reaching 43.1 points (vs the forecast of 45.1 points). On H4, the pair has tested the support located at the 1.1118-1.1127 levels. If bears pull the pair lower, the next support will lie at the lows of 2017 at 1.1076. From the upside, pay attention to the resistance levels at 1.1159, 1.1166 and 1.1177. It is worth to mention that on the daily chart the pair completed the “Head and Shoulders” pattern.
GBP/USD could not hold the gains after Boris Johnson was announced the next Prime Minister of Great Britain and fell to the support at 1.2427. After the slow start of the trading day, the cable has attempted to recover to the resistance at 1.2455. The next resistance levels lie at 1.2475 and 1.2495. In case of a reversal, the pair will retest the 1.2427 level. After the breakout, pay attention to the support at 1.2399.
According to Westpac, there is a chance for the Reserve bank of Australia to cut its interest rate again in November (earlier, than it was forecast before). The Australian dollar plunges on the news. On H4, the aussie has fallen below the 100-period SMA since the beginning of the day. The first support for AUD/USD will lie at 0.6967. The next one at 0.6957. If the pair goes up, there is a chance that it will test the resistance at 0.6989.
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Market updates on July 25
More at: http://bit.ly/32Oq3Qh
25.07.2019
Key events ahead:
Interest rate decision by the Central bank of Turkey – 14:00 MT (11:00 GMT) time
ECB monetary policy statement – 14:45 MT (11:45 GMT) time
ECB press conference – 15:30 MT (12:30 GMT) time
US core durable goods orders – 15:30 MT (12:30 GMT) time
During the Asian trading session, the Reserve bank of Australia governor Philip Lowe commented that the bank would ease its policy further if demand disappoints. The Australian dollar reacted negatively to his comments and fell lower. On H4, AUD/USD tested the lower border of the long-term ascending trading channel below the 0.6967 level. If bears manage to break this border, the next support will lie at 0.6957. After that pay attention to the 0.6946 level. From the upside, the first significant resistance level lies at 0.6989. The next resistance will be placed at 0.6998.
EUR/USD is consolidating near the support at 1.1127 ahead of the ECB rate decision. There’s a 50% chance of a rate cut, so pay attention to the meeting. If the euro weakens more, the pair will break the support at 1.1127 and test the support at 1.1118 on H4. The dovish ECB will increase the possibility for the pair to fall further to the 1.1076 level. On the other hand, if the central bank is less dovish, the first resistance will lie at 1.1155. The next resistance levels will be placed at 1.1166 and 1.1177.
USD/TRY, in its turn, is awaiting the decision by the Turkish central bank. After the Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan fired the head of the central bank earlier this month due to his disagreement to make the interest rate lower, now the market anticipates the rate cut decision. The US dollar has become stronger against the Turkish lira as the rate cut worries have been priced in. If the Turkish lira continues to weaken, the pair will break the 5.7048 level and return within the borders of the ascending trading channel. The next resistance will lie at 5.7219. In case of the reversal, the pair will fall below the 5.6887 level. The next support will be placed at 5.6766. (50-period SMA). The break of this level will provoke further fall to the next support at 5.6620.
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5 important events this week will bring us!
More at: http://bit.ly/311Egrs
29.07.2019
A monetary policy statement by the Bank of Japan (Tue, Asian session) – The rate changes are not expected, but the BOJ governor may provide comments on the future changes to the current monetary policy. Comments on further easing will make the JPY weaker.
Chinese manufacturing PMI (Wed, 4:00 MT (1:00 GMT) time) - According to the forecasts, the indicator will advance to 49.6. Higher figures will increase the risk-on sentiment in the market.
FOMC statement (Wed, 21:00 MT (18:00 GMT) time) – The market anticipates the rate cut by 25 basis points from 2.5% to 2.25%. Besides, we need to pay attention to the tone of the Fed chair and the hints on the further steps by the regulator. If Federal Reserve cuts the interest rate, the USD will go down. On the other hand, if the rate changes are postponed, the USD will be supported.
Monetary policy summary by the Bank of England (Thu, 14:00 MT (11:00 GMT)) – The bank won’t change the interest rate, but we will pay attention to the tone of the BOE amid the weak British pound, global easing of other central banks and uncertainties surrounding Brexit.
US employment data (Fri, 15:30 MT (12:30 GMT) time) – As usual, the report will include the level of average hourly earnings, unemployment rate and, of course, non-farm employment change or non-farm payrolls. While average hourly earnings and unemployment rate are expected to remain stable, the level of NFP is forecast to advance by 160 thousand payrolls. Higher figures of NFP and average hourly earnings and lower figures of unemployment rate will push the USD higher.
Hot news
The British pound fell to the lowest levels since 2017 after the British policymakers, such as Dominic Raab and Michael Dove commented about the preparations to the no-deal Brexit. On Monday, British PM Boris Johnson met with the First Minister of Scotland and Scottish Conservatives leader and they did not support the idea to leave the EU without a deal.
The trade talks between the US and China will resume on July 30-31. The key demands of China are the removal of the existing tariffs, a balanced agreement, realistic targets for further trade agreements. At the same time, the US ask for structural reforms to China's economy and the protection of intellectual property rights. As the trade negotiations have stuck after the meeting between Chinese and US presidents in Osaka during G20, we may only wonder whether the upcoming round of negotiations will succeed.
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The British pound is awaiting the BOE meeting
Check the calendar: http://bit.ly/2ZgEQRE
30.07.2019
The monetary policy summary by the Bank of England will be out on August 1, at 14:00 MT time.
We do not anticipate any changes to the interest rate this time, but the Bank of England may throw some hints on the further steps regarding its monetary policy. Despite the risks that the new Prime Minister Boris Johnson will leave the EU without a deal, the bank seems to stick to its plan to raise interest rates gradually for now. Will the policymakers change their tone to more dovish amid the trend of global easing?
• If the BOE is hawkish, the GBP will rise.
• If the BOE is dovish, the GBP will fall.
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The US-China trade war escalates
Check at: http://bit.ly/2Yhyjtw
02.08.2019
Good Friday, traders! Let's start with the updates from the US-China trade war's front.
Yesterday, US President Donald Trump announced an additional 10% tariff on the remaining 300 billion dollars of goods and products since September 1. China, in its turn, said about countermeasures needed as a response to this unexpected move. As a result, the risk-weighted assets dropped significantly.
The Australian dollar and the New Zealand dollar have seen huge moves to the downside. AUD/USD is currently trading at the lowest levels since January's flash crash.
Safe-haven Japanese yen has strengthened. USD/JPY has been targeting support from June 25 at 106.76.
USD/CNH has risen to the highest levels since last November. The pair is currently trading at 6.9718.
Gold retested its recent highs at $1,448.
As for exotic currency pairs, USD/MXN and the USD/ZAR jumped higher, while USD/BRL gapped up above the 50-day SMA since the start of today's trading session.
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Market updates on August 1
Check the charts: http://bit.ly/2OzTbrn
01.08.2019
Key events ahead:
Monetary policy summary by the BOE, BOE inflation report – 14:00 MT time
ISM manufacturing PMI for the US – 17:00 MT time
Yesterday, the Federal Reserve cut the interest rate by 25 basis points. The market had fully priced in this decision and expected more hints on the further path of the interest rate’s cut. However, the Fed Chair Jerome Powell failed to be as dovish as the market wanted him to be. The statement was mostly the same as the previous one, and the USD rose higher. EUR/USD has tested the support at 1.1033. If this level is broken, the pair will slide lower to the 1.0982 level. If the USD weakens, the pair will have a chance to rise above the 1.1056 level. The next resistance will lie at 1.1137. After that, pay attention to the 1.1155 level.
The British pound has tested fresh lows at the 1.2108 level and is awaiting the bank of England to determine the further direction for the cable. If the current support is broken, the next level will lie at 1.2017. If the central bank supports the pound, GBP/USD may rise to the 1.2177 level. The next resistance will be placed at 1.2248. Technically, the price formed a bullish divergence with MACD on H4, which may signal a rebound soon.
USD/JPY has risen after the Fed decision. After the test of the 109.31 level, the pair fell to the support at 109.08. If the pair continues to weaken, the next support will be placed at 108.71. After that, pay attention to the levels at 108.51-108.45, as there will be high chances of reaching these levels. From the upside, if bulls retest the 109.31 level, the next resistance will lie at 109.61.
The Brazilian central bank unexpectedly cut its interest rate to the record low of 6% since 1986. The rate cut pushed USD/BRL higher above the 50-period SMA on H4 to the resistance at 3.8270. The next resistance will lie at 3.8470. From the downside, pay attention to 3.7604 and 3.7317 level.
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Market updates on July 31: the Fed decision
Check the charts: http://bit.ly/2YD2lHr
31.07.2019
Key events ahead:
ADP Non-farm employment change for the US – 15:15 MT (12:15 GMT) time
Canadian GDP – 15:30 MT (12:30 GMT) time
FOMC statement – 21:00 MT (18:00 GMT) time
FOMC press conference – 21:30 MT (18:30 GMT) time
The market is trading cautiously ahead of the Fed monetary policy statement at 21:00 MT time. On H4, EUR/USD is consolidating between the resistance at 1.1158 and the support at 1.1132. If the rate cut happens today, the USD will weaken. In that case, the break of the 1.1158 level will happen and the next resistance level will lie at 1.1174. After that, pay attention to the 1.1198 resistance level. If the Fed chair surprises the market with no changes to the interest rate, the pair will slide below the 1.1132 level to the next support at 1.1116. If this level is broken, the euro will fall towards the 1.1086 level. If we look at MACD we can see that it is placed closed to the 0 level, which signals a possible reversal.
GBP/USD stopped falling and started to wait for the Fed to determine its further direction. If the Fed is dovish, the cable may break the 1.2168 level and target the next resistance at 1.2197. After that, bulls may push the pair higher to the 1.2225 level. In the case of the Alternative scenario, GBP/USD will move below the support at 1.2145. The next support will lie at 1.2118. If the pair manages to overcome this level, the further fall to the 1.2017 level may happen on the fears of a no-deal Brexit.
USD/JPY has been trading sideways, too. After the end of a new round of US-China trade negotiations, Chinese policymakers said that the US needs to show enough sincerity in reaching a deal. The news pulled the USD/JPY pair lower during the Asian trading session. Now all eyes are on the Fed decision. If the rate cut is confirmed, the pair will fall below the 108.51 level. The next support will lie at 108.45. After that, the pair may reach the 108.33 level. From the upside, pay attention to the upper border of the consolidation range at 108.64-108.7. The next key level for bulls lies at 108.8.
The FOMC statement will show whether the uptrend for gold will continue. On H4, the yellow metal has been knocking the resistance at $1,433. If it’s broken, the next resistance level will lie at $1,438. After that, the price for gold may reach $1,448 level. In case of the supported US dollar, the levels at $1,428, $1,424 (50-period SMA) and $1,420 will be in focus.
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Market updates on August 5
More at: http://bit.ly/2M0xqPz
05.08.2019
Key events ahead:
American ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI – 17:00 MT (14:00 GMT) time
The weekend was hurtful for the market sentiment with the updates from the Chinese side. While Hong-Kong press informed that China questioned the chance of trade talks' continuation with the US, Beijing asked State buyers to halt US agricultural imports. It resulted in the risk aversion in the markets.
USD/CNH has risen to the record highs above the 7th level and created resistance at 7.1050. If the Chinese yuan is supported, the first key level will lie at 6.9680. After that, pay attention to the next support levels at 6.9360 and 6.9270.
As risk-off sentiment intensified, gold moved higher to the resistance at $1,473 on H4. In case of reversal, pay attention to the $1,448, $1,436 and $1,421 (100 and 50 period SMA)
USD/JPY jumped to the lowest levels since January's flash crash. The first support for the pair lies at 105.65. After that, pay attention to the 105.3 level. If bulls take over the market the first resistance will lie at 107.45. After the break of this level, reaching the resistance at 107.79 will be possible.
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Important indicators may push the GBP up
More at: http://bit.ly/2YwAxW3
06.08.2019
Great Britain will release the level of GDP growth and manufacturing production on August 9, at 11:30 MT time.
The level of GDP growth measures the economic activity of a country. Last time it advanced by 0.5%, which was in line with the forecast. Analysts expect the indicator to remain at the same level this time. As for manufacturing production, which represents the value of output produced by manufacturers, it increased by the lower-than-expected 1.4% (vs. the forecast of +2.2%). According to the forecasts, the indicator will decline by 0.1% during Friday's release.
• If the actual figures are higher than the forecasts, the GBP will strengthen;
• If the actual figures are lower than the forecasts, the GBP will weaken.
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Market updates on August 7
Check the charts: http://bit.ly/2MJUPnZ
07.08.2019
Key events ahead:
The speech by the FOMC member Evans – 16:30 MT time
During the RBNZ meeting, the regulator cut its interest rate by 50 basis points (vs. 25 bpt expected). As a result, the New Zealand dollar fell to the lowest levels in 3 years. On H4, the support levels for kiwi lie at 0.6367-0.6377. If these levels are broken, the further fall will be limited by the 0.6296 level. At the moment NZD/USD is trying to rebound towards the resistance at 0.6451. Technically, RSI is about to leave the oversold zone, which may provide a buying opportunity.
Gold has risen even more to its highest levels since 2012 on global fears surrounding trade war between the US and China and comments on the launch of missiles by North Korea. On H4, the price for the yellow metal is trading above the $1,480 level. The next resistance for gold will be placed at $1,515. In case of a reversal, pay attention to the support level at $1,446. If it is broken, the next support will lie at $1,412. RSI is looking up, which means that the rise may continue.
AUD/USD fell to the 10-year low, as investors are afraid that the Reserve Bank of Australia will follow the path of its antipodean colleague. On the 4-hour chart, AUD/USD tested the 0.6676 level below the border of the downward trading channel but bounced back within the borders. If the aussie recovers more, the first resistance will lie at 0.6778. After the breakout, pay attention to the 0.68 and 0.6819 levels. On the other hand, strong bears may pull the pair down once again and try to break the 0,6676 level with the following test of the 0.6622 level.
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Market updates on August 8
Check the charts: http://bit.ly/2yNn5xI
08.08.2019
During the Asian trading session, the People's Bank of China set the reference rate for USD/CNY at 7.0039. This is the highest level in a decade, but not as high as analysts expected it to be. As a result, USD/CNH fell towards the support at 7.0650 right after the test of the resistance at 7.0977 level. If bears continue to pull the pair down, the current support may be broken, and the next one will lie at 7.0420. In case of a less risky environment, the pair will retest the 7.0977 level.
USD/JPY has been consolidating in the 106-106.27 range after the bullish surge towards the 106.27 level. From the upside, pay attention to the resistance levels at 106.63 and 107.05. On the other hand, if bears take control over the market, the 106 level may be broken and the next support will lie at 105.52. After that, keep an eye on the 105.3 level.
AUD/USD has risen on the softer risk sentiment. After the crossover of the price with the 0.6772 level (23.6% Fibo) on H4, bulls will have a chance to push the pair higher to the 0.68-0.6819 support levels. In case of risk aversion, the support at 0.6752 may be broken and the retest of the 0.6676 level may be possible.
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Market updates on August 12
Check the charts: http://bit.ly/2Tqt98L
12.08.2019
Key events:
Speech by RBA Assistant Governor Kent – 23:00 MT (20:00 GMT) time
During the Asian trading session, the People’s Bank of China once again set its reference rate for USD/CNY at 7.0211 (lower than expected). The USD/CNH pair inched lower on that announcement, but then immediately rose back to the resistance at 7.1080. At the moment the pair is testing the highs above this resistance level. In case of the stronger yuan, watch the levels at 7.0880 and 7.0650.
After the crucial test of the 1.2015 level, GBP/USD has moved higher towards the resistance at 1.2084. If this level is broken, pay attention to the 50-period SMA, which lies at 1.2145. From the downside, watch for the retest of the 1.2015 level. After that, the further fall will be limited by 1.1993.
USD/JPY has been moving down. On H4, the price is forming the descending triangle and is looking forward to the test of the 105.04 level. The next support will lie at 104.73. From the upside, pay attention to the 105.7 level. If bulls manage to break it, there is a chance of the rise towards the 106.22 level.
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Market updates on August 13
Check the charts: http://bit.ly/2YYCF4o
13.08.2019
British average earnings index – 11:30 MT (8:30 GMT) time
US CPI and core CPI – 15:30 MT (12:30 GMT) time
EUR/USD has continued to consolidate between the resistance levels at 1.1210-1.1223 and strong support at 1.1177. Today's release may bring volatility to the pair. If the USD gets stronger, the 1.1177 level may be broken and the next key level will be placed at the crossover of 50- and 100- period SMA at 1.1162. The next support will lie at 1.1147. Otherwise, if the pair manages to overcome the 1.1210-1.1223 range and sticks above the 200-period SMA, the next resistance will lie at 1.1240.
GBP/USD rose yesterday, but the further upward movement was limited by the upper border of the descending formation at 1.2106. The key levels from the downside lie at 1.2015 and 1.1993. If the GBP is supported, the retest of the 1.2106 level will be possible. The next resistance for the cable lies at 1.2145.
Gold inched higher on global tensions and uncertainties. The yellow metal has jumped above the $1,510 level and is moving up towards the $1,544 level. In case of softer risk sentiment, gold will slide back below the $1,510 level. The next support will lie at $1,495.
Now let’s look at the emerging markets. During the Asian trading session, Singapore’s GDP growth for the second quarter fell by 3.3%. Despite that, the Monetary Authority of Singapore does not plan to change its schedule of meetings until October. As a result, USD/SGD broke to its highest levels since 2017. At the moment, the pair is testing the resistance at 1.3885. The next key level will lie at 1.3910. In case of a reversal, pay attention to the support levels at 1.3859 and 1.3844.
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Market updates on August 15
Check the charts: http://bit.ly/2H6k0gK
15.08.2019
US retail sales and core retail sales – 15:30 MT (12:30 GMT) time
Philly Fed manufacturing index for the US – 15:30 MT (12:30 GMT) time
The Australian dollar was supported today by the upbeat jobs data for Australia. The indicator increased by 41.1 thousand jobs (vs the forecast of 14.2 thousand). The aussie rose above the 50-period SMA towards the 0.6783 level, but failed to stick near its highs on the revised forecasts of the upcoming RBA’s rate cuts and retested the 50-period SMA. If the aussie weakens, the pair may fall to the 0.6746-0.6736 levels. After the breakout of this range, the pair may retest the 0.6677 level. If the Australian dollar sticks above the 50-period SMA, the chance of the retest of 0.6783 level will increase. If this level is broken, the next resistance will be placed at 0.6799.
EUR/USD is awaiting the release of the US indicators. The pair is trading with low volatility on H4. Pay attention to the 1.1150, 1.1157 (100-period SMA) and 1.1166 levels, which may be reached if the releases disappoint the market. From the downside, the key levels will lie at 1.1142, 1.1133 and 1.1116.
USD/JPY spiked towards the 106.74 level, but then immediately moved down to the 50-period SMA on the 4-hour chart. At the moment of writing the pair has been testing the strong support at 105.8 on H4. In case of a risk-off situation, pay attention to the next support level at 105.52. If the USD is supported, the 106.32-106.22 levels will be in focus.
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Market updates on August 14
more at: http://bit.ly/31EoXVW
14.08.2019
Key events ahead:
British CPI – 11:30 MT (8:30 GMT) time
Yesterday the US trade representatives had a productive phone call with China, after which Washington announced that it was delaying the 10% tariffs on some of the Chinese goods. China, in its turn, confirmed that the trade talks between the two leading economies were expected to continue in September. The news boosted the risk sentiment and shook the market impressively. USD/JPY tested the 106.95-107.05 highs (the levels remained untouched since August 6) on the news and corrected to the downside facing the 106.31 support level. From the downside, pay attention to the support levels at 105.99 and 105.8. If bulls push the pair higher, it will rise towards the 106.62 level. After the breakout, the next resistance will lie at 106.74. The next key zone for bulls will lie at 106.95-107.05.
GBP/USD has been supported by the higher-than-expected CPI data. If the British pound strengthens more, the cable will break the upper border of the range at 1.2073 and test the resistance at 1.2098. If this level is broken, the next resistance will lie at 1.2145. In case of the pound’s weakness, GBP/USD will slide below the 1.2047 level. The next support will lie at 1.2015.
USD/CNH slid below the 7 level on the softer US-China trade relations. However, after the weaker indicators for China released during the Asian trading session, the pair reversed towards the support-turned-resistance level at 7.0436. Pay attention to the 7.0743 level which will be in focus if risk-off sentiment appears. Alternatively, the support at 7.0066 followed by the 6.9894 level will be in focus.
Despite the better-than-expected wage price index for Australia, AUD/USD has tested the ground below the 50-period SMA. If it continues to fall, the 0.6763 level will be reached. After that, the aussie will be vulnerable to the fall towards the 0.6749 level. If the risk sentiment increases, the test of the resistance level at 0.6799 will be possible. The next one will lie at 0.6817.
https://fbs.com/analytics/news/marke...august-14-5741
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5 important events this week will bring us!
More at: http://bit.ly/2Z5bRUK
19.08.2019
Canadian CPI (Wed, 15:30 MT (12:30 GMT) time) – According to forecasts, the indicator will advance by 0.1%. Higher figures will be appreciated by the CAD bulls.
FOMC Meeting minutes (Wed, 21:00 MT (19:00 GMT) time) – We will wait for the release, as look for more hints regarding the future rate decisions by the Fed. In case of more hawkish hints, the USD will be supported.
New Zealand’s retail sales (Fri, 1:45 MT (22:45 GMT) time) – We anticipate the level of retail sales to increase by 0.1%. If the actual figures are higher, the NZD will rise.
Canadian core retail sales (Fri, 15:30 MT (12:30 GMT) time) – The indicator is expected to decline by 0.1%. Higher figures will be positive for the CAD.
Speech by the Fed Chair Powell (Fri, 17:00 MT (14:00 GMT) time) – If the Fed Chair sounds hawkish, the USD will go up.
Hot news:
The US plans to postpone restrictions that the Trump administration has imposed on China’s Huawei Technologies Co. It increased the risk-on sentiment in the markets.
Oil prices jumped on the news that Saudi Arabian oil field was attacked by the drone.
On the Brexit front, the government preparations to the no-deal Brexit were leaked. As a result, Jeremy Corbyn plans to bring opposition parties together next week to discuss the prevention of a no-deal Brexit.
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Is there a chance for the NZD?
More at: http://bit.ly/2L5ycb1
21.08.2019
New Zealand is going to release the level of quarterly retail sales on August 23, at 1:45 MT time.
The indicator of retail sales shows the change in the total value of sales at the retail level. Traders pay attention to it as it is one of the primary measures of consumer spending. During the previous release, the indicator advanced by 0.7%. The figures came out higher than the expectations of 0.6%. Despite that, the NZD weakened.
• If the level of retail sales is greater than expected, the NZD will go up;
• If the level of retail sales is weaker than expected, the NZD will go down.
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Market updates on August 22
Check the charts: http://bit.ly/30v597l
22.08.2019
EUR/USD was supported by better-than-expected PMIs for the Eurozone. The pair has been testing the resistance at 1.1106. If this level is broken, we will focus on the next resistance at 1.1114. Next, the bullish pressure may be limited by the 1.1136 level. It is recommended to pay attention to the updates on the situation in Italy, as the political uncertainties there keep being strong. Today the Italian President Sergio Mattarella will meet with the parties in an effort to make a new governing coalition for a country. If the talks fail, the euro may fall down. The first level from the downside lies at 1.1080. After that, it is recommended to pay attention to the 1.1069 level.
While the chance of the no-deal Brexit remains high, the pressure to the British pound intensifies. Today, the British Prime Minister Boris Johnson and the French President Emmanuel Macron are going to meet to discuss the possibility of a no-deal Brexit. The cable is currently trading above the 100-period SMA on H4, close to the resistance line at 1.2140. The next key level will lie at 1.2154. After that the retest of the 1.2174 level seems possible. From the downside, you need to pay attention to the support at 1.2118. If bears pull GBP/USD lower, the next key support will be placed at 1.21 (50-period SMA).
NZD/USD has tested the lowest levels since 2016. On H4, bears tried to pull the pair below the 0.6377 level. If the kiwi continues to weaken against the USD, reaching the support at 0.6339 seems possible. In case of the reversal, pay attention to the 0.6419 level.
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