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What is financial scouting?
When referring to the term financial scouting, people mean the searchin for good trading opportunities in the financial market, done both quickly and professionally.
A financial scout or a financial scouting service sets out to find investment opportunities that fully meet a trader's needs, this being their primary task. Such investment opportunities may be both high- and low risk.
Want to know what is the difference between financial scouting and investment advisory? - Visit https://libertex.com/blog/what-financial-scouting
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In Europe, All Eyes Are On the G20 Summit
European traders will keep close track of the G20 summit. They wait for potential important statements to be made regarding the global economic outlook, and for agreements to be reached to address the US-China trade war.
On the downside, investors are wary now that the US leader has promised to unleash tariffs on European car imports, so Europe’s carmakers feel downbeat.
Meanwhile, on the positive side, traders’ worries about possible fourth rate hike from the U.S. Federal Reserve were somewhat soothed. The Fed’s chairman Jerome H. Powell made a market-invigorating statement saying that the US economic outlook remains strong, but the Fed might consider a pause in its interest rate hikes next year to assess the impact of its credit tightening. Mr. Powell said the benchmark interest rate was “just below” the neutral level.
Financial scouts note that the two continuing main concerns for Europe are Brexit divorce conditions and the Italy budget standoff. According to new official figures, withdrawal from the European Union under the government’s plans could cut the UK’s GDP by up to 3.9% over the next 15 years, but leaving without a deal could deliver a 9.3% hit to GDP over the same period, says the analysis produced by departments across Whitehall.
Oil will be the focus of interest for the European investors as well, as they hope that the oil prices might be bolstered if OPEC+ members decide to cut the supply to curb the current glut in their meetings from December 5 to December 7.
Ivan Marchena, Libertex Analyst
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Which opportunities does financial scouting bring?
When it comes to financial investments, being ahead of the others is a key to success. The drivers influencing the price are constantly changing. This makes it necessary to always monitor both micro and macroeconomics and act fast. As Leo Szilard, a famous scientist, once said, 'In order to succeed it is not necessary to be much cleverer than other people. All you have to do is be one day ahead of them.' This is the best phrase to describe financial scouting, the new service that enables faster trading and gains more profit.
Want to know more about financial scouting? - Visit Libertex.com!
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Marijuana Stocks Falls into the Correction Territory
Major Canadian pot stocks were broadly lower, with some prices currently falling by as much as 5 to 6%. The sector has been into the correction territory after soaring in October on recreational cannabis sales rollout in Canada.
Now we see a big share price reversal versus the peak prices. The Sector’s leaders Canopy Growth Corp and Tilray Inc fell by about 50% versus their 12-month highs. And some other key names in the sector like Aurora Cannabis Inc plummeted even lower.
On the positive side, some good news appeared that, as financial scouts note, might refuel buying in the sector. Specifically, first-ever medical cannabis growing licenses were awarded to private businesses. And some more countries like the UK and Germany might possible make marijuana legal as well.
Another big positive news for the marijuana sector companies was that Canopy Growth and some other major cannabis producers have been on the Bloomberg’s 50 Stocks to Watch in 2019 list.
We can expect that given a lengthy correction after the bursting growth in October Canopy Growth (СGС) stocks may be down by $29-30 within the week, while Tilray might drop to $100-105, and Aurora Cannabis Inc, Aphria Inc. and Cronos Group might hit the lows at $4.5-$5, $6.5-$7, and $8.2-$8.5, respectively.
Ivan Marchena, Libertex Analyst
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Europe’s Investors on the Sidelines, Eyes on Brexit and OPEC+ Meetings
European investors’ are waiting to know the Brexit talks outcome and the OPEC+ potential oil supply cut decision.
The G20 summit has yielded good news it brought a temporary truce between the U.S. and China, with the U.S. President Donald Trump and the Chinese leader Xi Jinping agreeing that China will not impose new tariffs on the U.S. car imports and so boosting Europe’s carmakers’ stocks.
Meanwhile, European traders are waiting for the Brexit situation to be finally resolved, with some doubts persisting over if the deal will be reached, with no-deal divorce still a real possibility.
After the G20 summit, all eyes are on the upcoming OPEC+ meetings over December 5-December 7, with the decision to cut the oil supply to hopefully be taken by the organization’s members to curb the oversupply that, as traders fear, might hamper the global oil demand for the next year.
The bad news was Qatar’s announcement of its quitting OPEC as part of the country’s long-term strategy for growing its international energy market presence with a focus on gas. Meanwhile, Russia and Saudi Arabia have agreed to extend the OPEC+ oil pact into next year. So now investors have to sit and wait for some certainty about the oil supply levels.
Ivan Marchena, Libertex Analyst
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Europe’s Markets Will Be under Pressure as Traders Await Brexit Deal Decision and Italy’s Draft Budget Revision
For the time being, European investors await the outcome of the UK cabinet meeting to be held soon to see if the draft deal is approved. Meanwhile the UK Parliament continues its debate on the deal ahead of the December 11 vote. If the deal is rejected by the British MPs, the UK will have to leave the EU without a deal, which will hurt the country’s economy badly. So far, the deal is criticized both by the ruling party and opposition.
Traders are anticipating next steps European Commission is bound to make to expand euro use to limit the dominance of the dollar as the global reserve currency. Eurocommission believes that stronger euro will help boost the global financial system’s stability. The euro expansion proposals from Brussels will be considered at the EU leaders’ summit later this month.
Another thing that keeps all eyes on it is Italy’s budget, with the country to submit the new draft budget for 2019 to the European Commission that has rejected the previous draft. Italy’s government is currently contemplates the budget deficit reduction from 2.4% of national GDP as was previously proposed.
Yet another concern is France, with investors waiting for the fuel tax increase to be suspended amid increasingly violent “yellow vest” protests, with France’s President Emmanuel Macron’s reputation bitterly undermined after the three-week unrest.
As for the oil sector, financial scouts think that Europe’s investors’ sentiment will be significantly influenced by which way oil prices will go after the OPEC+ meetings where the oil supply cut decision will be taken (or rejected) by the members.
Ivan Marchena, Libertex Analyst
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Libertex trading platform adds 5 CFDs on cannabis shares
Libertex has added five new contracts for difference (CFDs) to its trading platform. Starting from December 11th, 2018, traders using our cross-channel platform will be able to trade with the five hottest instruments, which represent the world’s most popular companies operating in the growing sphere of marijuana production and processing.
CFDs on the following shares are now available in Libertex:
Libertex CEO Michael Geiger said: “Marijuana is fast growing sector in Canada and in the US after having recently been legalized for medical and recreational purposes. This has led to a speedy increase in the amount of companies that now grow weed or produce medical products from the plant. Now, an influx in traders seek ways to include these assets into their trading portfolio. We are pleased to be able to satisfy the demand for these financial instruments and add CFDs for the most interesting stocks within the Libertex trading platform.”
About Libertex:
Libertex is an international brand with more than twenty year experience in financial markets and online commerce. Libertex provides investors with access to trade stocks, currencies, indices, commodities, gold, oil, gas and many other financial instruments. The Libertex team has more than 2,200,000 customers in Latin America, Europe and Asia owing to its first-class service. The platform has more than 150 commercial instruments. In 2016, Libertex was recognized by the Forex EXPO Awards as the best trading platform; and Global Banking and Finance Review named it the best trading application in the EAEU. In 2017, the Forex Awards named Libertex the best trading application and cryptocurrency broker.
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Europe’s Investors Still Anxious, Prices Highly Volatile
European stocks are still being struck by volatility, and investors continue to be anxious about the Huawei CFO’s arrest dimming US-China trade talks, which prompted the European Commission to express concerns about the risk of unauthorized data collection by Chinese technology companies in Europe.
Meanwhile, given the recent US economic statistics, traders believe that the Federal Reserve will likely be flexible on plans to ratchet up interest rates in 2019 after this year’s 3 hikes, with the rate raised first in March, then in June, and then in September. Still, a fourth rate hike is expected to happen, and the FOMC meeting on December 18-19 is the likely occasion. So far we don’t know the number of interest rate hikes the Fed has projected for 2019. Though 3 hikes were planned, the regulator might decide to reduce the number should the economy worsen.
The oil market was somewhat eased by the OPEC+ announcing the oil output to be cut next year, with the aggregate global oil supply to be reduced by 1.2 million bpd for 6 months starting January 2019 as agreed in the OPEC+ ministers’ meeting, with the OPEC countries to slow down their oil production by 800k bpd, and the supply from the non-OPEC countries to be cut by 400k bpd.
As news and expectations remain mixed, the European markets are likely to remain very volatile in the offing. Financial scouts are confident that traders will continue to feel uneasy about the global developments.
Ivan Marchena, Libertex Analyst
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Pot Stocks’ Fall Continues, As Marijuana Market Corrects to Fair Levels
Cannabis stocks continue their fall as they move deeper into the bearish territory and farther away from the October peaks. After the boom coming on the back recreational marijuana legalization, the stocks now go back down to fair levels.
As marijuana market is massively driven by speculation with its stock prices overinflated, the current prices have been too far from real, with the stocks overbought. Many investors have painted too rosy a picture about the sector’s companies, expecting sales to skyrocket and yield super profits. In fact, many of cannabis producers failed to have a clear and effective business plans, and the expectations of the continuing blasting growth have never become a reality.
Meanwhile, some major cannabis growers like Canopy Growth and Tilray do better than the rest of the segment, even after quite significant segment-wide price sag occurring last week. That said, the two companies’ stock may be good enough to buy for the long-term. A good thing for Tilray, and a long-term catalyst for its stock, is that it might get an appreciable share of the US marijuana market as planned, if cannabis is legalized throughout the US. Meanwhile, Canopy’s strengths are its production scale and market size.
It is likely that the pot sector will continue to lose ground in the week to come. Canopy Growth (СGС) price is expected to drop to $25-$27, Tilray (TLRY) will be down at $95-$97, while Aurora Cannabis Inc (ACB) and Cronos Group (CRON) are to be priced $3.8-$4 and $9.8-$10, respectively. Aphria Inc. (APHA) stands out with its price really very volatile going 20% up or down intraday. And it looks like this will continue with the price to steadily range from $5 to $5.5.
Ivan Marchena, Libertex Analyst
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Marijuana Stocks May Become More Upbeat On Major Investors’ Getting Attracted to the Pot Sector, Marijuana Growers’ International Expansion Plans
Canadian marijuana growers’ stocks’ fall was blunted by a bunch of positive news that bode well for the sector. The most important positive cue is that investors expect marijuana to be legalized throughout the whole country in the U.S. If this happens, this is likely to trigger a cannabis sector boom similar to the one that followed the legalization of the recreational marijuana in Canada. Though the pot sector has been spiraling downward for several months in a row after the boom.
Another really positive thing is that major investors are eyeing the sector. Illustratively, the California Public Employees' Retirement System (CalPERS) scoops up the sector’s stock, specifically, by investing into Tilray, Canadian marijuana producer and a global pioneer in cannabis production and distribution.
What’s more is that Tilray has announced the formation of its International Advisory Board that is an esteemed group of business and government leaders from countries where marijuana is legalized or moving for legalization, who will provide guidance to Tilray’s executive team and Board of Directors as the company pursues its aggressive global growth strategy.
Meanwhile, Canada’s Aurora Cannabis Inc made it clear that it is set to expand into the Mexico’s market by buying Farmacias Magistrales, a Mexican importer of raw materials containing THC.
Financial scouts expect that in the marijuana sector stock will grow appreciably in the days to come, with Tilray (TLRY) to go up to $76-$76.5, Aurora Cannabis (ACB) to climb to $6.5-$7, and Canopy Growth (CGC), Aphria (APHA) and Cronos Group (CRON) to go up to $32-$33, $6-6.5, and $11.5-$12, respectively.
Ivan Marchena, Libertex Analyst
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Marijuana Stocks Resumed Fall After a Short-Lived Growth Spree
After the recent short-lived growth spree, Canada’s marijuana growers’ stocks fell back to reality, and so the downslide in the sector continued. Investors, who used to feel really upbeat as they anticipated marijuana to be legalized throughout all the U.S. states, now fear that this might not actually happen. Financial scouts believe that the greatest risk now faced by the pot sector is that marijuana sales may be banned under U.S. federal laws. And even though the ban is not really likely to be imposed, investors are slightly wary that it might be passed.
Meanwhile, the good news that might bolster Tilray stock was that the world’s largest brewer AB InBev and Tilray are teaming up to research cannabis-infused beverages through AB InBev’s Ontario-based subsidiary Labatt, with each partner to contribute up to $50 million to the joint venture. Previously, Tilray also announced an exclusive global distribution agreement for medical marijuana with pharmaceutical giant Novartis.
Still, with the stocks back into the bearish territory, we can expect the prices to sink. In the days to come, Canopy Growth (СGС) might slide down to $27.5, with Tilray (TLRY) likely drop to $70, while Aurora Cannabis Inc (ACB) Group and Aphria Inc. (APHA) are likely to slide down to $5, and Cronos might fall to $10.5.
Ivan Marchena, Libertex Analyst
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Pot Stocks Might Be Up After the Christmas Recess
Canada’s cannabis stocks might grow appreciably after the Christmas trading break. Just before the holiday closing, the pot sector was feeling quite upbeat, with the Aphria Inc NYSE price notching up by a hefty 14% on December 24. The sector has caught the investors’ interest now for multiple reasons. One of them is that the U.S. stock market was brutally downbeat on Christmas Eve, having the worst pre-Christmas day on record. Investors’ being pessimistic about more conventional assets is due to the U.S. political gridlock, with the country’s President Donald Trump not willing to approve the 2019 spending bill without the Mexico border wall funding. As traders get disappointed about the classical investment instruments, they start eyeing more offbeat segments like cannabis and cryptocurrencies (where a pre-Christmas turbulent growth occurred as well). Another driver propelling the cannabis sector upward is the expectations that marijuana might soon become legal throughout the U.S. Should cannabis be legalized federally across the United States, marijuana growers will have a huge market for their produce. And given that the marijuana stocks have been pulled really far back from the October 2018 highs registered after recreational cannabis was legalized in Canada, there’s a really sizeable room for growth for the pot sector. We can expect that after the Christmas Recess in the U.S. Aurora Cannabis Inc (ACB) might grow to $5.5, while Canopy Growth Corp (CGC) might be up to $27, and Cronos Group Inc (CRON) and Aphria Inc (APHA) might climb up to $10.5 and $6, respectively.
Ivan Marchena, Libertex Analyst
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Precious Metals, Marijuana Stocks May Be a Good Choice for Investors for 2019, Cryptocurrencies, Oil Futures To Be Very Volatile.
The upcoming year may bring a lot of unpredictability as far as the market outlook for classical assets is concerned. Stock markets and dollar will continue to face pressure due to the persisting global political tensions and uncertainties like the U.S.-China trade war that has still not been resolved, the oil oversupply fears, and the lack of clarity about further U.S. Federal Reserve stance on the interest rate.
Should the Fed be somewhat back to the accommodative policy and implement fewer rate hikes than planned earlier, the dollar might be headed south.
Meanwhile, more offbeat instruments like cryptocurrencies also do not look too strong and promising. The cryptocurrency market had slumped over 2018, with many bitcoin mining and cryptocurrency companies hurt badly by the downslide. This downward dynamics will probably continue in 2019, as there are no real cues for growth yet.
Marijuana stocks might be of interest to investors now as markets waits for cannabis to be legalized federally throughout the U.S. Should this happen, the post sector stocks will skyrocket.
Precious metals, too, remain a good choice for investors as a safe haven asset to invest into amid volatile market.
Ivan Marchena, analyst of Libertex
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Europe’s Stocks Continue Growing On Weaker Euro
There are some odds for Europe’s stock indices to grow now that the Euro has weakened versus the U.S. dollar, and that investors are waiting for the outcomes of the U.S.-China trade talks.
The exporters’ stocks dynamics are fostered by the weakening EU currency, as companies’ dollar-denominated revenues grow accordingly. The Euro has slid downward on the not too upbeat Euro Area statistics. Financial scouts note that this market sentiment indicator has hit the lowest levels in December 2018 since January 2017.
Investors’ optimism is refuelled by the U.S.-China trade negotiations in Beijing with the U.S. President Donald Trump saying that the talks were “going very well” and “big progress” was being made. The U.S. leader said he hoped that the two countries would be able work out a long-term deal regarding all of the critical issues.
One more thing European investors are waiting to know is what will be the outcome of the UK House of Commons Brexit deal vote slated for January 14. Initially, the vote was scheduled for December 11, but then it was postponed by the UK Prime Minister Theresa May. Now Britain and the EU are racing towards B-day, with the UK to leave the European Union by March 29.
Ivan Marchena, Libertex Analyst
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Financial Scouts: European Investors Apprehensive of the U.S. Government Shutdown, Possible China’s Economic Slowdown Impact
European stock markets continue facing pressures on the U.S. government shutdown and China’s economic outlook related wariness.
The current government shutdown is the longest in the U.S. history. The U.S. federal government has been in a partial shutdown since December 22, 2018 with a slew of key government agencies such as Department of State, Department of Justice and Department of Transportation affected due to the differences between the country’s President Donald Trump and Democrats over funding for the U.S.-Mexico border wall. With great many of the country’s main agencies’ employees not working, the U.S. economy is being hurt really badly, which reverberates onto the global economy overall.
What’s more is that Europe’s investors fear that China’s economy might face challenges, too, with the concerns fuelled by the country’s economic statistics being rather weak lately. The two most downbeat indicators here are the country’s imports and exports that are sliding down on a persisting U.S.-China trade war. And though both countries have made some steps in order to put an end to the situation that is toxic to all parties concerned, there’s still a long way to go until the dispute is finally resolved.
For Europe itself, Brexit remains a burning issue with no deal reached yet, while Britain is slated to leave the EU on March 29 either with or without a deal.
Ivan Marchena, Libertex Analyst
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Marijuana Stocks Grow on Corporate News
Canada’s marijuana growers’ stocks traded in the U.S. markets are growing as they stabilize from a harsh correction. However, in the long run, the pot sector is likely to be affected by the U.S. internal political issues that will hurt the market across the board as well.
The U.S. is now seeing the longest government shutdown on record, with a great number of employees at the country’s key agencies not working since December 22, 2018, which is detrimental to the U.S. national economy and its overall stock market overall.
Contrastingly, Tilray (TLRY) stock grew appreciably, as Privateer Holdings that owns the majority of Tilray's outstanding shares, announced it had no plans to “register, sell or distribute” its holdings “during the first half of 2019”. Given that the stock surged higher and kept on going and going above its IPO price, but then finally were back under $100, and with the upcoming IPO lock-up expiration, investors previously feared that some of the cannabis grower’s stock holders might want to sell it.
Aphria (APHA) stock was hurt by the news that its CEO Vic Neufeld and co-founder Cole Cacciavillani will part ways with the company “over the coming months”, which was counterbalanced by the business’ strong figures as its earnings soared by more than 60%.
Meanwhile, Aurora Cannabis (ACB) was bolstered up as its sales were predicted to grow.
Financial scouts anticipate that, in the offing, Canopy Growth (СGС) and Tilray are likely to jump to $40-$41 and $98-$100, while Aurora Cannabis Inc (ACB), Aphria Inc. and Cronos Group (СRON) are soon to be priced at $7-$7.5, $7.5-$8, and $14-$15, respectively.
Ivan Marchena, Libertex Analyst
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Cannabis Stocks’ Prices Grow on the Upbeat U.S. Cannabis Market Outlook
Canada’s cannabis growers’ stocks traded in the U.S. market have been marching vigorously up since 2018 Farm Bill had made hemp, and thus CBD oil, legal across all of the U.S. states.
This news was followed by Canopy Growth’s (CGC) announcement of its having received a license by the state of New York to grow and process hemp and being set to further spread its roots outside Canada, planning to invest somewhere between $100 million and $150 million into its New York-based operations.
Meanwhile, Aurora Cannabis’ CCO said the cannabis grower will unveil a plan to produce hemp-derived CBD for the U.S. market in the next few months.
Contrastingly, Tilray has stood out negatively, as it slid down by about 10% after the IPO lockup had expired. But on the positive side, Tilray will become the preferred supplier for CBD products for Authentic Brands, which might bolster up the cannabis sector’s heavyweight’s stock prices.
Financial scouts predict that the cannabis sector stocks are set to grow in the days to come, given the bright U.S. cannabis market outlook. Specifically, Canopy Growth and Tilray (TLRY) are likely to trade at $44-$45 and $78-$79, respectively. And Aurora Cannabis’, Aphria’s (APHA) and Сronos Group’s (CRON) stock’s respective prices are expected to range $7-$7.5, $7.5-$8, and $16-$17.
Ivan Marchena, Libertex Analyst
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Signals Mixed for Europe’s Markets
Financial scouts note that European stock markets now face many incoming cues that are really mixed. The biggest current news on both sides of the spectrum is the Brexit uncertainty and the meaningful progress towards resolving the U.S.-China trade war.
So while the Brexit news make investors feel downbeat with Britain’s withdrawal date very close now and no deal approved yet, the U.S. and China seem to be mending their relationship after the spat. European investors are inspired by the news that the extra-high Chinese imports tariffs might be “reduced and removed”, which is a positive cue for European traders who had previously been worried that the U.S. might introduce new increased on car imports from Europe.
Also, traders in Europe are keeping track of the Davos World Economic Forum news, with some important announcements likely to be made there even though some of the key political figures and leaders like U.S. President Donald Trump and French President Emmanuel Macron are not going to Davos this year.
According to financial scouts, another thing that drives Europe’s markets is oil prices that demonstrate ambiguous dynamics. The medium-term positive driver here was the OPEC+ decision to cut the production that was passed in December 2018. So the decreased oil production eased investors’ concerns over possible oil oversupply.
Ivan Marchena, Libertex Analyst
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European Market Sentiment to be Driven by Corporate Reporting Figures, U.S.-China Trade War Resolution Progress
European traders (and investors globally, too) are wary that global economy outlook for the years to come might be gloomy. All of the latest statistics updates flag an impending downturn with leading countries’ economic performances to slow down for the short term at least. This is true for the U.S., Asia, and Europe itself.
Hence, in Europe, all eyes on the U.S.-China trade conflict resolution developments, as the persisting trade spat is a major negative driver for all economies across the globe. But then, there have been some positive cues lately, like U.S. President Donald Trump’s upbeat tweets or comments, suggesting that the trade war may eventually be settled. Mr. Trump is confident that fair trade deal will be reached in one way or another.
Another focus of interest catching the European investors’ attention is the European Bank’s stand on the economic growth outlook both for Europe and globally. Recently, the ECB’s economic growth fears have risen in line with its peers’ economic sentiment pattern.
One more important driver that will shape the European stock market dynamics in the offing is the EU business majors’ quarterly reports that have started to be published. So far, the figures look not too good, making investors feel downbeat.
Ivan Marchena, Libertex Analyst
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Cannabis Growers’ Stock to Continue Along the Upward Path on Investors’ Optimism
Canada’s cannabis producers’ stocks have continued to rise, as investors have been anticipating upbeat developments for the sector. Moreover, there is some really good news to propel particular growers’ stocks higher.
Canopy Growth (СGC) has been the sector’s top performer, as its stock had jumped up by more than 80 percent over the first three weeks of January and skyrocketed by 10 percent last Friday on news that major stock analysts had boosted their views on the cannabis company.
The news that really bolstered Canopy Growth stock was the grower’s management’s announcement of the company’s having received a license by the state of New York to grow and process hemp. Now the cannabis producer is set to invest somewhere between $100 million and $150 million into its New York-based “hemp industrial park” where cannabis research and production operations will be combined.
The good news for Tilray (TLRY) was the Canadian cannabis company’s unveiling the deal to buy Natura Naturals Holdings Inc, that is expected to close within the next 30 days.
Given the investors’ optimism, the cannabis stocks are likely to continue climbing to higher levels. The financial scouts forecast that Canopy Growth (СGС) might climb to $50, and Tilray might grow to $77, while Aurora Cannabis Inc (ACB), Aphria Inc. (APHA) and Cronos are predicted to be priced up to $7, $7.5 and $17-$18, respectively.
Ivan Marchena, Libertex Analyst
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Cannabis Stocks Grow On Sector’s Strong Earnings Reports
The strong earnings reported by the cannabis sector have provided a powerful growth impetus for the growers’ stocks. A very conspicuous one was Organigram Holdings Inc that reported record high sales growth for the quarter, with the figure topping 400%. The figures as strong as that combined with Organigram management’s planning to double the sales prompted investors to expect that other cannabis companies have a very good upside for growth, too.
Now investors anticipate just as upbeat sales and earnings reports to be published by other cannabis growers. They believe that the sector has started to boom, and many cannabis growers will be able to earn really big money.
Tilray (TLRY) stands out as underperformer, with its stock price declining on the back of the company’s two insiders announcing the sale of their stakes in the business. Tilray CEO Brendan Kennedy sold 149,916 Tilray shares for $11.1 million.
According to financial scouts, the cannabis market will continue to remain upbeat. With the strong financial and production reporting figures likely to be published, Canopy Growth (СGС) and Tilray are likely to grow to appreciable $49-$49.5 and $78-$80, respectively, in the days to come. And Aurora Cannabis Inc (ACB), Aphria Inc. (APHA) and Cronos (CRON) might climb to $7.5-$8, $8-$8.5 and $19-$19.5 in the offing, financial scouts say.
Ivan Marchena, Libertex Analyst
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Cannabis producer stocks continue their rally
Increased investor confidence in the future of cannabis is helping shares in Canadian cannabis producers to sustain their rally, This is true of both the medicinal and recreational-use markets. Additionally, the US's legalisation of hemp has opened up this market to a number of major Canadian producers who see significant changes in US legislation on the horizon.
There was even more good news for Cronos Group with industry heavyweight Altria investing $1.8 billion in the company in return for a 45% stake.
Short-term market sentiment will be determined by the quarterly financial reports of Aurora Cannabis (ACB), Cronos Group and Tilray (TLRY), which are to be published within the next few weeks. Investors will be expecting these producers to report sharp sales growth as a result of the recent increase in market outlets. They will also want to hear about their respective 2019 strategies.
For these reasons, we can expect to see increased volatility in this sector and any remotely significant development could trigger a marked jump or abrupt drop in share prices.
Financial scouts are predicting unit share price rises for the major cannabis producers within the following ranges: Canopy Growth (CGC) - $50-50.5, Cronos Group (CRON) $24-25, and Aphria Inc. - $11-12. Meanwhile, they expect shares in Aurora Cannabis to hit the $8.5-9 mark, with Tilray rising as high as $84-85.
Ivan Marchena, Libertex Analyst
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No discernible pattern to cannabis producer stock movements but general growth likely
Ambiguous news has meant there is no consistent pattern to cannabis producer share movements. For example, shares in Tilray (TLRY) are rising strongly after reports of a deal with Ohio-based Green Growth Brands that will see the Canadian company supply its US partner with CBD.
Aurora Cannabis Inc's (ACB) share price also increased significantly on news that its partner, Radient Technologies, had been granted a cannabis production license by the Canadian authorities. Following this announcement, the company's shares reached their highest level since the sector-wide boom we saw in November of the previous year.
Meanwhile, Canopy Growth Corp (CGC) is showing slightly lower share price growth, with Aphria Inc (APHA) firmly among the market minnows.
Financial scouts forecast that shares in cannabis producers could continue on their relative up-trend into the near future. Tilray's share price could grow to $80-80.5, while Aurora Cannabis Inc's might reach the $8.5-9 mark. Similarly, we could see Canopy Growth Corp hit $47.5-48, with shares in Aphria Inc and Cronos Group Inc (CRON) rising to $10.5-11 and $22-23 respectively.
Ivan Marchena, Libertex Analyst
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Cannabis stocks down on US legalisation doubts
Shares in Canadian cannabis producers are falling amid reports that the New York Department of Health has banned the sale of cannabis in restaurants and bars. Investors now fear that the legalisation of recreational use cannabis in the US is far from certain. Furthermore, the latest figures out of Canada show that the total number of cannabis users did not change significantly following the country's legalisation of the drug in October of last year. The market did however receive some good news in the form of reports suggesting that Thailand is considering decriminalising cannabis. Shares in Canopy Growth Corp (CGC) are demonstrating the best growth in the sector, with investors anticipating the company's entry into the US market. If Canopy Growth succeeds in this ambition, it will most likely "pull up" the shares of some of the smaller players in this sector such as Aphria (APHA), Cronos Group (CRON) and Tilray (TLRY). The latest short-term forecasts from financial scouts predict industry-wide shares growth, with the major players' unit share prices rising to the following levels: Canopy Growth - $46, Tilray - $80, Aurora Canabis Inc (ACB) - $8, Aphria Inc. (APHA) - $10, and Cronos Group - $20.
Ivan Marchena, Libertex Analyst
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European markets await new developments on Brexit and US-Chinese trade relations Optimism regarding a resolution to the trade conflict between the US and China could see European stock markets grow. In other news, market insiders have been demonstrating reduced appetite as stocks undergo somewhat of a correction. Investors are choosing to err on the side of caution until they hear the experts' verdict on the current US-China trade talks. The two countries now have just two weeks left in which to reach a decision before the new higher import tariffs come into effect on 1 March. In the meantime, President Donald Trump has already stated publicly that this 1 March deadline for the introduction of new US tariffs on Chinese products could be postponed in the event that a bilateral agreement is close. Such comments are naturally contributing to increased investor optimism across the world. There was some good news for the European markets, too, in the form of rumours claiming Trump is now prepared to sign off on Congress's budget compromise. The budget includes provisions for the construction of an 88-km-long fence along the US's southern border, allocating $1.4 billion to the project as opposed to the $5.7 originally demanded by Trump. Meanwhile, the issue of Brexit remains the main focus of European investors. The United Kingdom's planned departure from the European Union on 29 March is now just six weeks away and, with no final deal in place, investors appear very restless as they react sharply to any Brexit-related news.
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Investors keeping close watch on US-China trade talks and United States' southern border
Investors in the Latin American stock markets are awaiting a decisive solution to the US-China trade conflict with bated breath.
For the time being, however, they remain cautious and are adopting a position of restrained optimism until the result of the talks becomes clear.
High level meetings between the sides are scheduled to take place as early as 21 February and will feature representatives including the Vice Premier of the State Council of the PRC.
Meanwhile, world oil prices are holding steady at their local maximums — which are high now that fears of a supply surplus have been assuaged — and this is benefiting the Latin American market.
The decision by the OPEC nations to reduce their output volumes coupled with the effect of US sanctions on Iran and Venezuela had a similar calming effect.
Elsewhere, financial scouts in Mexico are also carefully monitoring the situation along the US's southern border.
Trump had previously demanded that Congress allocate $5.7 billion dollars for the construction of the President's wall. When this was denied, a number of government departments refused to sign off on the budget for over a month, which resulted in a country-wide institutional shutdown.
In the end, the US Congress passed a budget which provided for just $1.4 billion in funding for a wall along the US-Mexico border. Trump responded by issuing a national emergency order to combat illegal immigration from Mexico and criminality on the US's southern border. This declaration means that the US President will now be able to access up to $8 billion in funds for his wall.
Vadim Kovalenko, Libertex Financial Scout
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Quarterly reports fail to boost cannabis stocks
As the quarterly reporting season continues on, there is still no unified pattern to cannabis stocks' movements. Following the publication of reports by Canopy Growth (CGC) and Aurora Cannabis (ACB), the market is still waiting to see the Q1 financial results of one more key industry player in Tilray (TLRY). This particular reporting period is especially significant for investors since it represents the first full quarter during which the sale of cannabis was legal across Canada. Several market pundits have forecast Tilray's Q1 per share earnings at $0.14. Canopy's financial statement revealed an overall more positive picture with earnings up 300% to CAD 80 million, though it still didn't quite live up to analysts' expectations. Aurora, on the other hand, posted losses of over CAD 200 million — just one year after reporting profits of around CAD 7.7 million. The company attributed these losses to ineffective management. Financial scouts believe that the marked variation in financial results across the industry's biggest players will mean cannabis shares trade mixed over the short-to-medium term. During this time, we can expect to see shares in Canopy Growth and Aphria Inc. rise to $49-49.5 and $10 respectively, whereas shares in Tilray (TLRY) and Aurora Cannabis are likely to fall to $75 and $6.5 respectively. Meanwhile, Cronos (CRON) could see its share price hit $22.
Denis Povtorenko, Libertex Financial Scout
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Cannabis stocks down on below average quarterly reports
Shares in Canadian cannabis producers are still falling as they attempt to regain the ground lost following some below average Q3 reports from several major industry players including Canopy Growth (CGC) and Tilray (TLRY).
Tilray's shares are losing slightly more than the industry average, but this is largely the work of a price correction in response to the significant jump seen after the company announced its plans to acquire world-leading hemp-based food products company Manitoba Harvest from Compass Group Diversified Holdings.
With an estimated value of $318 million (USD), the deal is scheduled to be completed within the next 30 days and would enable Tilray to offer a wider range of products to its customers in the US and Canada.
Financial scouts predict that cannabis stocks will continue their decline over the short-to-medium term, but could return to growth further down the line.
Over the coming days, we can expect Canopy Growth's unit share price to drop to $45, with Tilray's potentially slipping to $78.5. Meanwhile, Aurora Cannabis (ACB) is likely to slide to $6.5, with shares in Aphria Inc. (APHA) falling to $10. Finally, Cronos (CRON)'s share price looks set to drop to $22.
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Libertex named Best Trading Application and Best Crypto Currencies' Broker for 2018
The results of this year's Forex Awards are in and we are delighted to announce that the Libertex trading platform has been named the Best Trading Application and Best Crypto Currencies' Broker of 2018.
In the words of Igor Galkin, Libertex Group's Head of Global Business Development and Sales: "For the second year in a row now, Libertex has managed to top the Best Trading Application and Best Crypto Currencies' Broker categories. This latest victory is proof that — if you're looking to make sound investments on the world markets — you can't go wrong with Libertex".
The Libertex trading platform is certified by the Financial Commission and was named Best Trading Terminal in the EEA at the Global Banking and Finance Awards 2016. Libertex is held in high regard by professional traders the world over and its recognition as the Best Trading Application and Best Crypto Currencies' Broker for 2017 and 2018 only serves to confirm this fact.
Libertex is an international brand with over 20 years of experience in financial markets and online trading. Since our founding in 1997, we have been helping our customers trade a variety of financial instruments, including CFDs, foreign currency, various indices, exchange commodities, gold, silver, oil, gas, and many more besides. Today, Libertex provides first-class service to over 2.2 million customers across the Americas, Europe and Asia.
The Libetex trading platform is a one-stop-shop that enables its users to trade across various segments of the financial market from traditional currencies, metals and energy resources, all the way to CFDs, crypto currencies, indices, ETFs and beyond. Libertex's straight-forward, user-friendly interface not only enables users to complete trades easily without worrying about stuff like spreads, margins and lots, it also comes complete with a powerful set of technical analysis tools. There are web-based, iOS and Android versions of the terminal available, so users can trade comfortably on any device they like. We even offer an desktop-installable version for both Windows and MacOS.
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Geopolitics and possible Brexit deadline extension weighing on European markets
There is a whole host of negative factors weighing on the European stock markets at present. Of these, two of the most significant are the escalating tensions between India and Pakistan and the potential extension of the Brexit deadline.
The increasingly heated political climate in Asia is evidence that the region is in the grips of a new, previously overlooked crisis which could have serious, negative consequences for the world's financial markets. Another equally worrying concern among investors is the Britain's impending exit from the European Union. The UK government is currently debating measures to extend the Brexit deadline beyond the original 29 March departure date in the event that its latest deal proposal fails to receive parliamentary approval.
Meanwhile, investors are also following the US Federal Reserve's rhetoric for any clues as to the regulator's future monetary policy. In addition to this, they are also taking direction from the US representatives at the China-US trade talks, who are reported to have said that it is still too early to predict the results of the negotiations. These comments spelled the end of a recent period of increased optimism that a resolution to the ongoing trade conflict between the US and China was close at hand. As we narrow our focus to the region's individual countries and their domestic stock markets, we see several internal factors at play. For example, the Netherlands government's unexpected move to purchase shares in Air France-KLM has alarmed the French authorities, who are still waiting for the Dutch to provide proper clarification on the motivation behind the decision.
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The shares in marijuana manufacturers still look mixed
The shares of the largest Canadian producers of marijuana continue to show mixed trends against the background of data about the cannabis legal and black market indicators for the country. The report that Aurora Cannabis Inc. (ACB) had closed a deal to acquire a company that produces medical marijuana in British Columbia in western Canada also impacted the market.
According to statistical data, the marijuana black market remained quite strong during the fourth quarter of 2018. Black market sales reached almost USD 900 million, while the legal market accounted for just over USD 300 million.
Shares of Aphria (APHA) are being bolstered by the news that the Canadian authorities have allowed the company to add additional production capacity. After this new production capacity is added, Aphria will be able to expand its manufacturing volume to up to 110,000 kilograms per year.
There is another notable piece of corporate news in the sector: Cronos Group (CRON) sold its stake in Whistler Medical Marijuana Corporation to Aurora Cannabis.
It is likely that shares in marijuana producing companies will continue to shift ambiguously in response to the combination of contradictory factors. Thus, shares in Aphria may rise to USD 11, whereas those in Cronos Group will drop to USD 20. Aurora Cannabis may drop in price to USD 7, and Canopy Growth (CGC) shares may appreciate to USD 46.
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Stock prices of the largest Canadian cannabis producers are dropping after the unexpected news that Scott Gottlieb stepped down as the Head of US FDA.
After two years in this position, he is expected to resign already next month.
These news were absolutely unexpected and, as a consequence, has affected the producers of Cannabis in a negative way, especially due to the fact that Gottlieb was known for his supportive attitude towards the cannabis dealing market. Just last week, he announced that public discussions regarding regulatory issues for this market segment would take place in April.
We can now expect that stocks of Cannabis producers will react to this unexpected negative event, and in several days, could suffer even more significant losses.
As financial scouts predict, Canopy Growth (CGC) stocks might drop in price to USD 45.5 - 46; Tilray (TLRY) - to USD 74.5-75, Aurora Cannabis (ACB) – to USD 6.5-7, Aphria Inc (APHA) – to USD 9-9.5 and Cronos (CRON) – to USD 22.
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European markets expected to fall on fears of a global economic slowdown
Europe's stock markets look set to remain subdued over the short-to-medium term on fears of a global economic slowdown and particularly poor economic indicators coming out of the Old Continent. The outlook only worsened following recent comments from the European Central Bank (ECB) as the regulator lowered its eurozone GDP growth forecasts for 2019 from 1.7% to 1.1%, also scaling down its 2020 projections from 1.7% to 1.6%. European stocks then took another hit following the publication of seriously weak Chinese exports data revealing an annualised fall of 20.7% for February. This comes after the previous month's numbers showed a 9.1% rise in January. Of course, these figures are a knock-on effect of the Asian giant's ongoing trade conflict with the USA.
The bad news continued for the European and world markets with poor labour market data from the US pointing to a deterioration of the economic situation in the country. All of the above factors explain why many investors are concerned about a potential slowdown in the global economy. Looking now to regional news, we received reports that the Sovereign Wealth Fund of Norway, which is responsible for managing the Nordic nation's assets, is set to sell its oil and gas shares under instructions from the country's Ministry of Finance. Meanwhile, Europe continues its wait for a definitive solution to the issue of Brexit.
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Cannabis stocks continue to rise on reports of US legalisation plans
Libertex notes that shares in major Canadian cannabis producers are rising after politicians in New Jersey made public their plans to legalise recreational cannabis use for adults over the age of 21. It has also been suggested that US local authorities will be permitted to tax cannabis producers operating on their territory at a rate of 2% of the companies' total earnings.
There was another welcome development for the sector in the form of Harvest Health & Recreation's announcement that it is to acquire competitor Verano Holdings in a deal that will see the purchasing company gain a further 30 retail outlets and 7 production facilities. According to its own projections, Harvest Health expects to own 70 retail locations, 13 farms and 13 production facilities by the end of the year.
Our financial scouts are convinced that the recent wave of positive market news will be sufficient to buoy cannabis stocks over the short-to-medium term. Their predictions include share price increases for all the major producers, with Tilray (TLRY) set to rise to $72.5-73, Canopy Growth (CGC) to $47-47.5 and Aurora Cannabis (ACB) to $8-8.5. Meanwhile, they expect shares in Cronos Group (CRON) and Aphria Inc (APHA) to reach $21.5-22 and $10 respectively.
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Correction sees cannabis stocks fall after rally on good corporate news runs course
Shares in most major Canadian cannabis producers are now undergoing a correction following moderate-to-strong growth in response to Hexo posting better Q2 earnings (up to $16.2 million).
As the company itself acknowledges, it owes a large part of this success to the significant rise in demand within the recreational cannabis sector as a whole. Just a day earlier, it was another positive development for Hexo that helped to buoy the market as the company announced plans to acquire Newstrike Brands Ltd. — a venture backed by former Canadian rock group The Tragically Hip — in a deal worth an estimated CAD 263 million (USD 198 million). Once it completes the acquisition, Hexo will gain close to 2 million square feet of additional production space.
Finally, the market received one last piece of good news this week in the form of Aurora Cannabis's (ACB) announcement that major investor Nelson Peltz had joined the company as a senior advisor.
In conclusion, it is likely that this downward correction will be sustained over the medium-to-short term, as is to be expected after such a sharp rise. With this in mind, we can expect shares in the big Canadian producers to continue on their current trajectory, with Aurora Cannabis tipped to fall to $8, Canopy Growh (CGC) to $45, Tilray (TLRY) to $72, Aphria to $12 and Cronos (CRON) to $20.
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European investors are worried about Brexit and are pretty skeptical when it comes to FRS policy.
European stock markets are nervous about the further perspective of Great Britain leaving Eurozone. It is still not clear whether it will be a Brexit with arrangements or not and when it will take place.
Brexit without a deal might seriously impact not just the British economy, but the Economy of the EU in general and some of its countries in particular. For example, Spain has assessed that in a worst case scenario, Brexit will cost the Spanish economy 10 bln euros. The British Chamber of Commerce has already downgraded its GDP growth forecast for 2019 from previously expected 1,3% to 1,2% against the backdrop of the continuing uncertainty about Brexit.
Meanwhile, the fact that Great Britain and the EU have coordinated a draft of the possible future memorandum of understanding that stipulates the information exchange between the regulatory bodies of the parties in the case of Brexit without a deal still looks positive to investors. At the same time, market players still hope that the agreement between the parties will be reached. Right now the EU still has to announce its decision with regards to the proposal of the British prime minister Theresa May to postpone the Brexit date to the 30th of June.
Apart from the events in the region, European investors have also paid their attention to the rhetoric of FRS of the USA. Despite of the fact that the financial market on the USA has preserved its basic interest rate in March and doesn't promise any further increases in the nearest future, financial scouts still point out that market players preserve their skepticism about the further politics of FED.
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Cannabis stocks could rally on good corporate news
Shares in Canada's biggest cannabis producing companies fell on Friday despite the market receiving several pieces of positive news.
Among these was the announcement by Canopy Growth (CGC) that it had acquired cannabis producer AgriNextUSA in a deal which Canopy's senior management believes will help the company expand its US business. This move comes shortly after another intra-sector acquisition saw the Canadian outfit add Colorado-based Ebbu to its portfolio.
Under the terms of the deal, AgriNextUSA's CEO will join the Canopy Growth team as its strategic advisor.
Then there was one final bit of good news for the market in the form of reports that Curaleaf has secured a deal that will see its products sold in hundreds of CVS Health stores across 10 US states.
Many financial scouts believe that these recent positive reports could bring a return to growth for stocks in this sector. Despite the recent decline, they are predicting unit share price increases for all major companies in this sector over the medium-to-short term, with Canopy Growth set to rise $47, Aurora Canabis (ACB) to $10 and Tilray (TLRY) to $71. Meanwhile, Aphria (APHA) is tipped to rise to $11, while Cronos (CRON) is seen up to $21.
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European Investors are worried about the perspectives of global economic development and Brexit.
European stock markets will be under hard pressure due to investors being nervous about further perspectives for development of the European economy as well as of global economy in general. Such concerns became really serious after the Eurozone and USA economic statistics were published. A serious deterioration in terms of forecasts on further perspectives for the world economy were given by various institutions and organisations.
Another topic for active discussions and increased concerns of market players is still related to the dynamics of profitability of US treasury bonds. The recent movements of the profitability curve make the investors think that a recession might take place in the US economy during this year.
Apart from this, the trading participants prefer to hold back from risky investments awaiting for another round of trading negotiations between the USA and China, that are scheduled for the 28th of March. In the beginning of April representatives of China are also going to pay a return visit to Washington.
Besides all the above-mentioned facts, the worries with regards to the Brexit deal also influence investment sentiments negatively. After the European leaders postponed the date when Great Britain is supposed to leave the EU for several weeks beyond the 29th of March date, the question about the scenario of this process still remains open.
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Cannabis stocks could rise on Cronos quarterly report
Shares in Canadian cannabis producers are trading mixed this Tuesday as the market awaits Cronos Group’s Q4 2018 report.
In the run-up to the release of Cronos’s final quarterly report for 2018, the company’s shares are rising and currently lead their sector, which would suggest that investors are anticipating positive results from the Canadian firm.
Still, the market’s growth has been somewhat restrained following reports that New Jersey has postponed a crucial vote on cannabis legalisation. The Garden State is at the forefront of the charge for legalisation in the US and is thus regarded as a barometer of the movement’s overall momentum.
Canopy Growth’s (CGC) shares are not faring particularly well this week despite the announcement that the company has been granted a license by the Canadian government to cultivate cannabis in the province of New Brunswick. The producer plans to grow approximately 5,000 kg of cannabis a year at this new facility, with the first harvest expected in just six months’ time.
Our financial scouts believe that future share movements in this sector will be largely determined by Cronos’s financial results. If they reveal strong indicators, then the company’s share price could reach $21-21.5, while Aphria’s (APHA) could rise to $10. Meanwhile, shares in Aurora Cannabis (ACB) could hit $10.5, with Canopy Growth and Tilray similarly rising to $44.5-45 and $68-68.5 respectively.