German Elections: Will Merkel hold on to power?

German Elections: Will Merkel hold on to power?




Elections in economically powerful countries like Germany have always provided an opportunity traders can take advantage of, because of the market volatility that preceded them.

The uncertainty that surrounds an election result creates turbulence in the markets, which are exactly the conditions traders need to make bigger profits on their trades.

If recent history has taught us anything, it is to expect the unexpected when the German Election takes place on Sunday 24th September – regardless of what exit polls and the media are reporting will happen.



EXIT POLLS ARE LESS RELIABLE THAN BEFORE



Opinion polls have consistently predicted that Angela Merkel will secure a fourth consecutive election victory for her Christian Democratic Union (CDU) party and their sister party the Christian Social Union (CSU).

However, exit polls are not as reliable as they once were. Britons were expected to vote against Brexit and Hilary Clinton was considered a more likely US President than Donald Trump.

The pulse of the voter is far more difficult to anticipate, and more susceptible to change.
The impact of social media and other, less predictable influencers, can have a significant effect on the opinions and perceptions of voters, especially in those critical last few days before the election itself takes place.
No outcome is certain until the last votes have been cast.

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