1 Attachment(s)
GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: March 8, 2017
The GBP/USD pair continues to trade very weakly during the previous trading session. This could be initially attributed to the strengthening of the USD which was reflected across the board, but what has really affected the pound here is the fundamentals underlying the UK economy, as well as various uncertainties which is constantly putting pressure on the value of the GBP/USD pair.
Once the Article 50 gets invoked, the Brexit process is pretty much locked in, and this means that there would be several negotiations between EU and UK leaders immediately after the invocation. UK leaders are expected to be stricter with regards to EU trade access since the majority of them would like the UK to realize the several benefits that it would lose once the country finally becomes a separate nation from the European Union. This uncertainty as well as the tediousness of the Brexit process is likely to take its toll on the GBP/USD pair and this is starting to become more evident as the currency pair continues its weak trading stance, with the currency pair just hovering over 1.2200 points.
The UK will be releasing its yearly budget release today, and the country is expected to paint a pretty picture of their economy in order to boost public sentiment. This might give temporary resolve for the sterling pound but would eventually fizzle out as the fundamentals continue to put downward pressure on the state of the GBP/USD pair.
Attachment 13380
1 Attachment(s)
GBP/USD Technical Analysis: March 9, 2017
The House of Lords decided to allow the Parliament to exercise a veto with regards to the management of the Prime Minister towards the European Union. This resolution made some impact to the British currency. Moreover, Theresa May has to face another difficulty with the Brexit negations.
The sterling remained flat during the Asian hours. The sellers spend the whole night accumulating strength for another support and pushed the price lower in the morning.
The spot was removed from the region 1.2200 and progress lower prior to the opening of London session. The Cable was able to hold 1.2150 amid noon trades. As mentioned in 4-hour chart, the price resumed its development under the moving averages. The 50, 100 and 200-EMAs headed downwards. Resistance is seen at 1.220, support highlighted 1.2100.
The MACD indicator decline as the sellers gained strength. RSI belong in the undervalued zone and expected to favor for a new lower trend.
Based on the current flow, a scenario where a downward movement at 1.2100 is considered.
Attachment 13386
1 Attachment(s)
USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: March 10, 2017
The USD/CAD pair continued its ranging and consolidation manner without any visible signs of weakness in the pair. The USD had previously weakened slightly against its other peers but has managed to maintain its current stance against the Canadian dollar which is good news for the bulls. Oil prices have been relatively stable during the past trading day, which means that the Canadian dollar has also remained stable and has resulted into a sort of deadlock for the USD/CAD pair.
However, it is important to note that the USD/CAD pair has recently been in a tight trading barrier near 1.3500 points during the past two sessions, the same region which the currency pair has consistently failed to break through during the previous couple of months. The bulls have become very wary of this barrier since this has caused them to drop down by over 500 pips and the majority of the bulls would not want to be caught within this barrier again. As of the moment, the USD/CAD pair is expecting for a very strong NFP report, as well as a higher USD value as a reaction to the said report. In addition, the March rate hike is also pretty much in the bag and the ADP employment report is also expected to come in as highly positive.
Aside from the NFP report set to be released today, the market will also be anticipating the release of the Canadian employment data. The bulls are advised to remain at the sidelines of this pricing barrier until such time that the activity clears and becomes safe enough
Attachment 13387
1 Attachment(s)
GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: March 14, 2017
Although the UK economy saw a lot of events and developments during yesterday’s trading session, this has done practically nothing to induce added activity into the GBP/USD pair. A slight bounce occurred in the pair during the previous session but this was automatically met with a selloff, especially since the bounce was somewhat thin and was unable to hold on and prevent the said selloff from occurring. The GBP/USD pair has however managed to surpass 1.2200 points and even managed to reach 1.2250 following market rumors that Theresa May might not be invoking Article 50 within the week. However, since there was no actual confirmation that the invocation would indeed be happening this week, the market became initially confused on the British pound’s rally and the lack of basis to this particular assumption has caused this bounce to eventually die out.
In addition, there have been rumors swirling around that the British government might not accept Scotland’s request to hold an independence referendum, especially since the UK is already neck-deep in uncertainties and another referendum would only cause more disaster for the country’s economy. These series of events has caused the GBP/USD pair to retreat towards 1.2200, where it is currently trading.
For today’s trading session, there are no expected data releases from the UK economy, while the US economy will be releasing its PPI data. However, all eyes will be on the FOMC rate announcement which is set to be released tomorrow. This, in addition to the impending invocation of Article 50, are both expected to keep the GBP/USD pair under pressure in the short term.
Attachment 13394