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AUD/USD Technical Analysis: January 11, 2017
The Aussie presented a sluggish stance yesterday as the Retail sales data showed negative results. The pessimistic input for the Chinese CPI had affected the currency as well.
Moreover, an attempt to surpass the 0.7350 level were unsuccessful.
Buyers advanced to 0.7385 where AUD/USD found some fresh offers and declined to 0.7350. Having tested the aforesaid level, sellers resumed its struggle to push the price downwards.
During the morning trades, the price tested 200-EMA as indicated in the 4-hour chart. It further stalls the bull’s movement to continue forward as it acted as the spot’s resistance.
The 200 and 100-EMAs are neutral while 50-EMA edged higher as mentioned in the same timeframe. Resistance holds 0.7400 level, support is seen at 0.7350 region .
MACD indicator dwindled and implied weak position against the buyers. RSI consolidated around the undervalued readings.
As the forecast says, bearish bias kept prevailing in the market. In the most probable scenario, if the price focus below the 0.7350 support level the short-term downtrend could possibly continue. The next target of the sellers are marks 0.7250 and 0.7300.
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GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: January 11, 2017
The sterling pound merely continued its previous activity of consolidation and ranging albeit with no clear direction as of the moment. The range of the GBP/USD is tightening further as we speak, and the market is expecting an explosion any time soon. However, this major event’s direction has yet to be seen but it can be assured that there is a movement by up to 300-400 pips. However, the risk for the GBP/USD pair is expected to remain in the downward direction due to the weak GBP and strong uptrend in the USD.
However, the recent strength of the USD is expected to be tested today during Trump’s press conference since the market will be closely monitoring Trump’s approach with regards to a number of issues. If Trump decides to take the diplomatic route, then this could trigger a boost in the value of the USD, thereby putting immense pressure on the GBP/USD pair, even though the sterling pound is still currently undergoing pressure from the various confusions surrounding the Brexit process.
The UK is set to release its manufacturing production data for today’s trading session, and this will be an indicator of whether the UK will be able to maintain its current trend of positive data releases which are not yet affected by the Brexit process. If this particular data comes out as negative, then this could increase the pressure on the sterling pound.
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GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: January 12, 2017
The US dollar took the spotlight yesterday as the market reacted wildly to Donald Trump’s press conference during the latter part of the New York trading session. The market was initially subdued during the London and Tokyo trading sessions since the market was generally looking forward to gauge Trump’s demeanor, as well as to decipher his administration’s plans for the next 4 years and to see whether Trump will actually be pushing through with his proposed policies during his campaign.
However, Trump went in for a very disappointing run as he displayed his usual tactlessness and brashness and even highlighted his desire to build a Mexican border within two years. This move was wholly unexpected by the market, and this caused the USD to crash and plummet across the board. The GBP/USD pair, which has been languishing in the bottom rungs of the market for the past 2 months, was able to immediately recover its losses and was able to push through 1.2200 points and even reached 1.2250 before finally settling at just under 1.2200 points.
Since there are no major news releases expected from the UK for today, the previous market trend is expected to dominate today’s trading sessions. The bulls could possibly profit from a solid upward move from the GBP/USD pair if the pound would be able to break through 1.2300. Otherwise, the currency pair could be merely subject to short-term corrections.
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USD/JPY Technical Analysis: January 16, 2017
The USD has attempted to regain its losses against the Japanese yen during the previous trading session as the market went unaffected by a slew of highly positive economic data from China, namely Exports and Imports data, as well as the Chinese Trade Balance data. During the Tokyo trading session last Friday, the USD was able to regain its upward balance following its recent decline, while buyer strength manifested positive bid stances which caused the pair to exceed 115.00 points prior to the opening of the North American session. But this upward movement eventually lost its momentum which then caused the USD/JPY pair to drop back to lower than 115.00 points. Traders also induced the currency pair to drop further to 114.00 points during the middle of the New York trading session. The USD/JPY pair was able to test the 50 EMA in the hourly chart. Resistance levels for the USD/JPY is situated at 115.00, while support levels are expected to be at 114.00 points.
For the next trading session, the USD/JPY pair could possibly decrease further in value and could hit 114.00 up to 113.00 points unless buyer strength could help the currency pair to consolidate just above 116.00 points.
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EUR/USD Technical Analysis: January 16, 2017
The release of economic data from the US last Friday lended some much needed support for the US dollar. The retail sales data dropped in value and failed to meet market expectations, while the data for the Producer Price Index came out on a highly positive note and exceeded market expectations. Meanwhile, the EUR continued to incur losses in spite of upbeat data coming from the European Union, such as the German Wholesale Price Index as well as the Spanish Consumer Price Index.
The euro tried climbing up during Friday’s session but was able to regain its upward bias during the Tokyo session after euro sellers encountered a price barrier at 1.0600 which then caused the EUR to drop in value. As the London session commenced, the EUR/USD pair rose and hit 1.0650 points, with the euro regaining all of its previous losses during the opening of the North American trading session. The price of the currency pair continued its climb and exceeded its moving averages as seen in the 4-hour chart. The 50 and 100 EMAs are currently pointing in an upward direction, while the 200 EMA stayed within neutral territory. Support levels for the EUR/USD are projected to be at 1.0600, while resistance levels are expected to be at 1.0650 points.
If the EUR/USD pair is unable to exceed 1.0650, then this could cause selling interest for the pair to return. However, if the pair drops and breaks through 1.0600 points, then traders are advised to monitor 1.0550 and 1.0500 points. The EUR/USD will only be able to recover if it is able to sustain its stance at 1.0650 points.
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GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: January 16, 2017
The GBP/USD closed the week with a sluggish stance and struggled to maintain its gains. These events put on some fears against the pound bulls because this will weigh over the Cable upon the return of dollar’s strength.
The pair stayed below the 1.2200 on Friday until the weekend took place which triggered indications for a hard Brexit. This caused for the pair to create a large gap and traded shortly under 1.2000.
The strong economic data of the UK shown for the previous months did not influenced the sterling’s value at all. However, it is deemed that the British currency is able to withstand its current situation and will accumulate gains afterwards. Looking forward, the bulls still needs to endure the worst impact as the bears tend to insurge. The hard Brexit cause risk and confusion for the investors which made them think twice prior pound purchase.
In the last two weeks, there are news about the UK's possibility to employ hard Brexit, whereas, PM May’s speech is highly anticipated within this week. This event brought the Britain’s economy a tough time but we believe the country will become much stronger eventually.
For today, we expect no new UK economic release and losses is further expected with a fundamental near-term target of 1.17.
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