-
1 Attachment(s)
Technical Analysis for EUR/USD: June 1, 2016This week's primary event would be the conference of the ECB in the Eurozone. There are assumptions that the European regulator will leave its monetary policy unchanged. The currency pair tried to regain on Tuesday. The resistance occurs at 1.1200 while the support stands at 1.1130. The MACD indicator is in a negative location which signifies to sell. Meanwhile, the RSI is in a neutral zone which does not provide clear signals.
Attachment 12025
-
1 Attachment(s)
Technical Analysis for GBP/USD: June 1, 2016
The pound managed to recover from its lows. Generally, the dollar stayed solid contrary to the pound as an aftermath of Janet Yellen's speech last Friday. The market hopes for new drivers for a further activity.
The resistance occurs at the level of 1.4560 while the support stands at 1.4480.
The MACD indicator is in a negative location which signifies to sell. Meanwhile, the RSI indicator is near to the oversold zone.
Attachment 12026
-
1 Attachment(s)
Technical Analysis for EUR/USD: June 6, 2016
The poor data of Non-farm Payrolls could be a factor of the Fed rate hike delay. The EUR/USD pair bounced up last Friday. It surpassed the levels of 1.1200, 1.1250 and 1.1300 and reached the level of 1.3730. This cause the pair to look bullish.
The resistance occurs at the level of 1.1370 while the support stands at 1.1300.
The MACD indicator is in a positive location, which signifies growth and is bullish. The RSI approached the overbought level of 70.
Attachment 12058
-
1 Attachment(s)
Technical Analysis for AUD/USD: June 7, 2016
The Aussie dollar is holding on to the bulls with the latest decision from the RBA to keep interest rate at 1.75 percent, a widely-expected move based on strong economic indicators. The AUD/USD is trading at 0.7441 and rising.
The first support is seen at 0.7312 and 0.7167 subsequently while the first resistance is at 0.7530 and 0.7649 subsequently.
Australia’s GDP rose by 1.1 percent in the first quarter of 2016, with an annualized growth of 0.2 percent, the quickest in four years. However, RBA Governor Glenn Stevens said that low inflation and an appreciating domestic currency may pose greater risks to the economy. The RBA board expect inflation, which is at an annual rate of 1.3 percent, to reach their target of 2 to 3 percent.
A suddenly dovish Yellen is hurting the USD which rallied last week after a rate hike becomes more possible at Fed’s policy meeting in June.
The MACD indicator is in positive location. The price is climbing.
Attachment 12063
-
1 Attachment(s)
Technical Analysis for NZD/USD: June 9, 2016
The RBNZ propelled the NZD to a 12-month high, pushing it through 0.71 levels against the USD after the central bank’s decision to keep interest rates at 2.25 percent. The bird has been hovering at 69 cents for quite a long time.
Reserve Bank Governor Graeme Wheeler left the door open for monetary easing and promised it to be “accommodative.” The central bank is specially keeping an eye on low inflation and expects it to firm and reach their target in the long term, although short-term inflation has been steady.
“We expect inflation to strengthen reflecting the accommodative stance of monetary policy, increases in fuel and other commodity prices, an expected depreciation in the New Zealand dollar and some increase in capacity pressures,” the bank said in a statement.
Uncertainty in the bank’s statements are keeping us from declaring the upside bullish, but a rate above 0.7146 will shift our outlook to a bullish one. NZD/USD is currently trading at 0.7125.
The first support is at 0.6960 and 0.6910 subsequently, while the first resistance occurs at 0.7045 and 0.7080 subsequently. The MACD indicator is in positive location. The price is rising.
Attachment 12071
-
1 Attachment(s)
Technical Analysis for EUR/USD: June 13, 2016
The Euro is holding onto 1.12 cents against the USD, effectively avoiding a bearish trend but keeping the risks on the upside. Pro-Brexit campaigns are gaining, questioning the stability of the European Union.
It’s a quiet day for the EUR/USD, but Tuesday will bring in trade data from Spain and Italy followed by France on Wednesday. The region’s trade balance is on the radar on Thursday, as well as inflation.
The USD is posting gains against its major peers due to bullish initial jobless claims late last week, reversing losses from dismal nonfarm payrolls in the beginning of the month. This week’s highlight is Fed’s interest rate decision which is expected to remain at 0.5 percent, although some investment firms are forecasting a rate cut.
The pair is trading within a 50-pip range and is currently at 1.1261. The price is climbing.
The first support is at 1.1216 and 1.1179 subsequently. The first resistance is at 1.1299 and 1.1327 subsequently. The MACD indicator is in positive location.
Attachment 12084
-
1 Attachment(s)
Technical Analysis for GBP/USD: June 14, 2016
Economic data coming this week are overshadowed by a gaining Brexit campaign. Research firm ICM’s latest survey showed the Team ‘Leave’ six points ahead, shaking the strength of the GBP which has been experiencing volatility in recent months.
GBP/USD took a tumble in early session but has been playing teeter totter with each other. USD is on a volatile ride as well with the upcoming FOMC meeting on Wednesday. Thursday will see the Bank of England announce its interest rate decision that may help push the sterling to bullish territory.
The pair is trading at a wide range between 1.3839 and 1.5931 on the daily charts.
Traders are closely watching public opinion on the Brexit. Little impact is expected from the CPI and PPI today as well as from the unemployment rate on Wednesday.
The first support is at 1.3839 and 1.3724. The first resistance is at 1.4232 and 1.4300. The MACD indicator is in negative position. The spot exchange is 1.4130 and continues to slide.
Attachment 12088
-
1 Attachment(s)
Fundamental Analysis for GBP/USD: June 15, 2016
A latest survey showing that Vote Leave is points ahead dragged the British pound to 1.41 cents against a stronger US dollar. As the EU referendum approaches, the sterling is swaying nonstop due to voters’ sentiment and the release of poll results after another.
TNS revealed yesterday that 47 percent of respondents wanted the UK to leave the EU, while only 40 percent wanted to remain a member of the bloc. GBP/USD fell to two-month lows. \
UK inflation in May was also on the red, printing only a 0.3 percent rise, similar to the same period last year. Analysts were expecting a 0.4 percent growth. In m/m terms, CPI also disappointed as it climbed by 0.2 percent, missing the forecasted 0.3 percent. Transport costs rose by 0.9 percent in Mayi from the previous month but was offset by declines in food and clothing.
As we predicted, CPI didn’t have significant effect on the sterling especially because a Brexit poll was released in the same day. The Bank of England’s decision on its interest rate is next on the GBP’s economic headline.
The USD performed slightly stronger than its counterparts with the release of positive retail sales which hit 0.5 percent m/m against a 0.3 percent forecast. Core retail sales was in line with expectations at 0.4 percent. Both exports and imports at 1.1 percent and 1.4 percent respectively eclipsed their forecasted rates.
Atlanta Fed upgraded its GDP forecast for Q2 to 2.8 percent from an initial estimate of 2.5 percent. Strong retail sales was also viewed as a signal that consumer expenditure will most likely print robust numbers.
We are looking at an immediate support of 1.4089 and 1.4040 subsequently, while resistance is at 1.4265 and 1.4350. The MACD indicator is in negative location. The spot exchange is at 1.4142 and rising.
Attachment 12090
-
Technical Analysis for GBP/USD: June 20, 2016
The pound is keeping its strength against most of its counterparts as it enters the week of the EU referendum. Bulls are protecting the sterling as buying interest continue to increase. GBP/USD has broken through 1.46 cents and has shown no solid sign of a downtrend.
The pair surpassed numerous resistance but bottomed at 1.4359 today. It then reached a high of 1.4672. The spot exchange is now at 1.4626, and can break into 1.47 levels in the near term with a switch in public sentiment. Polls show that voters are shifting their support towards the “Remain” campaign.
The MACD indicator is in neutral location and we are expecting further price increase as bears fail to take the pair.
-
1 Attachment(s)
Technical Analysis for AUD/USD: June 21, 2016
The Aussie dollar is benefiting from a volatile sterling and euro as investors seek a safe heaven in the AUD. The RBA meeting minutes headlined the impetus this week. The Board implied the importance of a weak domestic currency to support Q2 and Q3’s GDP growth. However, the minutes did not have a significant impact on the AUD/USD.
Australia’s house price index printed surprising numbers, declining by 0.2 percent in the first quarter of the year compared to the previous quarter’s 0.2 percent growth. Analysts expected a 0.8 percent rise in Q1.
Although AUD/USD is trading at 0.7487, the upsurge is limited due to easing commodity prices. The USD has been fairly quiet and is waiting for Yellen’s statement later on the semi-annual monetary policy report.
The first support can be found at 0.7454 and 0.7413 subsequently. The first resistance is at 0.7500 and 0.7550. The MACD indicator is positive location and the price is rising. However we are not expecting the AUD to break into the 0.75 level anytime today.
Attachment 12118
-
1 Attachment(s)
Fundamental Analysis for EUR/USD: June 22, 2016
EUR/USD was hit with profit-taking and a warning from ECB president Mario Draghi that another stimulus is on the way. The euro retreated to 1.12 cents after reaching 1.13 in the past days due to a firming ‘Bremain’ public sentiment. The pair is trading at 1.1272.
Draghi said that more stimulus is on the way as the ECB sees inflation rate missing the 2 percent target until 2018. Inflation is predicted to reach 1.3 percent in 2017 and 1.6 percent in 2018.
On the data front, Germany’s ZEW Economic Sentiment for June was at 19.2, largely exceeding the predicted 4.7 increase. The country’s current conditions grew to 54.5 from 53.1 in May, while the Eurozone’s economic sentiment was up to 20.2, surpassing the 15.3 expected rate.
The USD is also taking a beating from Yellen’s statement that shows Fed’s worry over the labor market. The Fed chairwoman effectively reduced the possibility of a rate hike in its next monetary meeting in July.
EUR/USD is still on the bullish side but a drop below the immediate support of 1.1240 will move it to a neutral position, with the next support at 1.1213. The first resistance is at 1.1291 and 1.1350 subsequently. The MACD indicator is in a positive location.
Attachment 12125
-
1 Attachment(s)
Fundamental Analysis for GBP/USD: June 23, 2016
GBP broke through 1.48 in early European session, peaking at 1.4830 due to two polls that showed the Remain camp leading by several points. This is the sterling’s highest rate against the USD in 2016.
According to YouGov, the Remain camp gathered 51 percent of voters while the Brexit camp recorded 49 percent. ComRes, another major polling firm, revealed similar results with the Bremain leading by 6 percent at 48 percent while the Brexit side was at 42 percent. GBP/USD is now in a consolidating phase as traders remain cautious in the hours leading to the referendum.
In the US, traders are going short on the USD as they wait for the huge impact the referendum’s result could bring. It is understood that the result along with the outcome of Fed’s assessment on a soft labor market will largely affect the interest rate in July.
Dutch bank ING predicted that a Bremain will propel the GBP/USD to the 1.52 level while a Brexit will push it to as low as 1.30.
The first support occurs at 1.4700 and 1.4659 subsequently. The first resistance occurs at 1.4830 and 1.4897. The MACD indicator is in positive location.
Attachment 12129
-
1 Attachment(s)
Technical Analysis for EUR/USD: June 30, 2016
Followed by the Consumer Confidence report in the Eurozone, the euro currency has not made any alteration with its positions. Concurrently, the ECB will not whisk with the further monetary policy easing. There should be a proof that the economy of the Eurozone is declining before it implements any action.
Slowly, the euro managed to step up continuously. It is showed in the 4-hour chart that the instrument stayed in a downside channel and the euro increased to its upper boundary. The pair was likely to regain 0.47% and has made a new local high at 1.1130. The resistance occurs at 1.1130 while the support stands at 1.1000.
The MACD indicator was kept standing on a negative location while its histogram increased. The indicator will also give buy signals while its histogram increases. RSI indicator is in an impartial location and its growth from the oversold area is a buy signal.
The price is under the Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200) which goes downwards indicating a sell signal. The 200-day moving average is a sturdy resistance for the euro which it touched yesterday. The EUR/USD tries to revert into the ascending channel on the daily chart.
Attachment 12166
-
1 Attachment(s)
Technical Analysis for USD/JPY: July 4, 2016
The Japanese government believed that the cause of the household spending enfeeblement in May was the continuous breakdown of the consumer prices. This event leads to a further compression to the Bank of Japan which is discontented with the present sinewy of the Japanese yen.
The instrument reduced from a local high. The pair is directed to revert under 102.50. The resistance occurs at 103.50 while the support resides at 102.50.
We should notice that the expansion of the MACD indicator decelerated. It has stayed in the negative location which signifies a sell signal. Meanwhile, the RSI is in a neutral location and doesn't provide any signals. The USD/JPY pair is under the Moving Averages (50,100 and 200) which goes on a descending movement. The pair tested the 50-day movement and slip downwards. The 50-day movement is the nearest resistance for the pair.
Attachment 12183
-
1 Attachment(s)
Technical Analysis for AUD/USD: July 11, 2016
After the issuance of the monthly report for the non-farm payroll data, the AUD/USD pair quickly had a rise in price movement. Due to its strong report the Australian Dollar attracted more investors as presented in the daily swing chart. Technically, the pair demonstrated a horizontal price movement for the past few days near 50% levels. The main range is defined from .7285 to .7645 while reaching its 50% level that is .7465. At the same time, the short-term range had a moving average from .7645 to .7301. Its 50% level falls at .7473. If the two 50% levels is combined, the .7473 and .7465 will create a strong trend that would prevail on the existing market movement.
A strong move over .7571 will predict a downward change in value which is .7535 by which it would give a signal to the buyers. The angle of the moving average under .7571 will call the attention of the currency sellers. Long term investors should be cautious in dealing with this price since it is the trigger point of the potential targets .7573 and .7565. Traders are suggested to develop the sustained move above .7571 through a sharply bullish tone.
Attachment 12214
-
1 Attachment(s)
Fundamental Analysis: July 11, 2016
Silver prices went down Friday morning after the USD fared better than the expected NFP numbers, causing its sudden surge. However, Silver prices experienced a minor increase in its price after hitting an all-new low at $19.20, but this is still far from its weekly high of $21.11.
Should the prices of this metal go down again next week, a breakout amounting to less than $19.20 will be of significance. A move through this trend will make the next key value support at $17.99 as shown in the May 2016 high, suggesting a temporary suspension in the daily bull trend for Silver and opening its doors for more price declines.
If Silver continues to break until next week, then traders must look at the SSI to step away from its present extremes and spot the following resistance at $20.48. However a move at this point may suggest that Friday’s decline might just be a remainder of its lows. If this is the case then traders may expect Silver to trade back at its monthly high of $21.11.
Attachment 12215
-
1 Attachment(s)
Fundamental Analysis: July 12, 2016
The exchange rate of British pound to Euro (EUR/GBP) plunged a significant dip of 9 points just as euro has a little price action and the value of British pound emerges from default rate. At the moment, the pair seems to be holding the same level at 0.8514. Due to the extreme support of the European Central Bank monetary policy, it helped maintain the stability of prices and maintained the inflation rate close to medium term position. When inflation rate rises dramatically, there is a need to promote monetary easing in order to minimize financial costs and increase the amount of money flow in the market.
The investment sector is beset with difficulty, making it complicated to invest a new capital. To this extent the bank management should stabilize the global economy in order to aid bankruptcy. Every financial institution should write off undesirable credits or loans so as to recover losses and produce new income. Since the outset of the stock market storm in U.K. , the British pound ride out a way through it and made a 31-year low against dollar.
British sterling underscores a big fall of 13% versus dollar and 10% against euro. According to analysts, this will build up U.K exports because anything that is price-marked in sterling would be much cheaper for the foreign buyers. But the effect of these major lost in sterling offered mixed trade signals whether or not it would influence the external trade transactions.
Attachment 12218
-
1 Attachment(s)
AUD/USD Technical Analysis: July 13 2016
AUD/USD recorded its highest stock price on May 3. But today the pair obtained a lower rate after a growth surge that happened yesterday. The recent strength of the market's trend was remarked by the appetite for risk in the global economy.
The Aussie Dollar has improved since the Reserve Bank of Australia reduced interest rates and they are now regenerating all their losses during the post-Brexit.
The daily swing chart defined the pair's main trend as an uptrend and made it cut down the Brexit top that changed the .7645 into .7285 as the market bottom.
The main price range is .7834 to .7145. The retracement alert level is close above .7569 to .7487, this shows a chance of an upside strengthening.
The market movement occurred to an uptrending angle at .7665 by which it is close to the result of yesterday’s strength at .7622.
Meanwhile, AUD/USD may take a bullish or long position in certain securities due to a sustained market movement over .7665 and this would probably begin an upside momentum to rotate the downtrending angle at .7687.
Technically, it is difficult to deal with .7665 and coping with this real time exchange rate will signal the presence of more sellers than buyers. If the price continued a downward sloping average below .7539, it indicates weakness for the next target.
Attachment 12224
-
1 Attachment(s)
Fundamental Analysis: July 13, 2016
The EUR/USD pair experienced a small upsurge after a possible stability of UK politics, lifting pressure from traders. The USD traded at 96.38 or 20 points lower, giving up some of its “safe haven” profit. On the other hand, the EUR traded today at 1.1088.
Consumer prices in Germany rose by 0.1%, while the yearly inflation rate for the past three months has increased from April’s -0.1%. Concerns within the Bundesbank may soon arise if the inflation rate continues its increase.
Fuel prices also went up as oil prices increased, causing transport costs to go up by 0.8%. On the other hand, food prices for this month went down at 0.4% while recreation prices increased after an upsurge in package holiday prices. On Monday afternoon, the EUR single currency experienced a marginal elevation against the USD after slightly up and down swings in a data-light session.
In general, the EUR was able to limit its incurred losses, thanks to the psychological barrier at the level of $1.10 for two consecutive sessions in spite of the turmoil caused by nonfarm payrolls.
Attachment 12225
-
1 Attachment(s)
Fundamental Analysis: July 14 2016
The Bank of Canada opted to maintain interest rates during their most recent closed-door meeting with the currency board and bank directors and eventually the rate of the Canadian Dollar moved higher yesterday. The USD/CAD keeps on pushing higher prices most of the trading session but the invested capital gains immediately fluctuate down to 1.2934 close to 1.2976, falling to 0.0064 or -0.49%. Since midsummer the BoC continued to retain its appropriate benchmark with a rate of 0.50%.
According to the central bank, the financial valuation of the BoC would likely have an economic growth, considering that it has increased by 2.4% during the first quarter of the year and is expected to decline by 1% by the second quarter. The assessment is inferred through the volatility of the capital flows, household consumption and the massive wildfire that ravage the Canada's region.
The central bank also anticipates the expansion of the Canada's economy by 1.3% up to 3.5% during the months of July to September. The BoC mentioned also their expectation of the price stability of oil prices for the rest of this year.
One of the problems emerged in Canada is the overall financial vulnerabilities as it resulted to a lower rates and experienced an adverse shock. Other news releases said that a 4% price fall in crude oil will restrain the weakening of the USD/CAD pair.
Attachment 12228
-
1 Attachment(s)
Fundamental Analysis EUR/USD: July 14, 2016
The EUR/USD pair was subject to pressure following the release of China’s latest trade balance data. The Euro went up by 0.0012 or roughly +0.11%, hitting 1.1084 from its low of 1.1042.
EUR traders can now breathe a sigh of relief after the trade balance data from China came out in their favor after the news release signalled a possible volatility. Exports came out at -4.8% after an estimate of -4.1%. On the other hand, imports came out at -8.4%, a long shot from its forecast of -5.0%. Meanwhile the dollar’s headline figure for June came out at $48.1 billion, about $2 billion lower than May’s headline figure, with economists gunning for a reading of $46.64 billion.
After US stock indices had an upward surge, Investors and traders are now back to monitoring global equity assets with the promise of higher risk assets, putting more confidence in the EUR/USD and aiding in its overall recovery.
Attachment 12229
-
Technical Analysis for USD: July 15, 2016
The US Dollar has been struggling to make a significant increase after the UK’s Brexit vote caused uncertainties in the international market. This absence of an upside signals that whatever the market is doing is not convincing investors to actually bid up with an asset that has an optimal fundamental backdrop.
Only the AUD had a desirable post-Brexit run among the USD’s four counterparts, which includes EUR, GBP, and JPY. The AUD’s track record after Brexit can be proof that there are better options than the USD. The JPY experienced an upsurge at 98.77 after the Brexit announcement, but has since went down at ~106 JPY per USD. The GBP is experiencing an expected volatility but has somewhat become stable following the announcement of Theresa May’s appointment as UK’s new Prime Minister.
The USD’s failure to find a break might make it hard for investors to make predictions on its direction, which can cast more ambiguities in one of the world’s principal currencies.
-
1 Attachment(s)
USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: July 18, 2016
The USD/CAD pair traded at 1.2971 and closed at 0.56% after the USD was restored and pressure was put on the market as international events shook traders during last Friday’s session. On Thursday, US numbers looked promising, as inflation rates went up after the PPI went over its estimated percentage of 0.3%, climbing up to 0.5%, the highest monthly gain since May 2015.
The Core PPI also exceeded expectations, gaining 0.4% after an initial estimate of 0.1%. However, Unemployment Claims remained stagnant at 254 thousand, way below the expected rate of 263 thousand. The consumer price index report of the US Department of Labor showed an increase in the CPI by 0.2% for June, while currency speculators renewed their net long position on the USD following a significant upsurge since June, after positive US economic data caused the currency to experience an increase.
The USD’s net long position increased after the week’s end on July 12, hitting $8.01 billion after last week’s $4.18 billion. US retail sales also picked up and went higher than expected, which shows how the economy went up during the second quarter of the year.
Attachment 12238
-
1 Attachment(s)
EUR/USD Technical Analysis: July 18, 2016
Last Friday, the EUR/USD pair unexpectedly increased with an exchange rate of 1.0874 but experienced to have a reverse path today and formed a negative candle pattern with a price rate of 1.1067 . The pair continued to strike around within the consolidation period and it snap back in the bottom of 1.10 level and 1.12 level at the top. Short-term market rallies will continue to sell and offer various opportunities that support short-term charts.
Attachment 12240
-
1 Attachment(s)
Technical Analysis for USD/JPY: July 19, 2016
The USD/JPY pair clamped down an impressive pip average of 423 pips after the session closed down last week, the pair’s biggest weekly gain since October 2014. The pair doesn’t seem to be stopping these gains anytime soon, as this week’s opening proved to be favorable for the USD/JPY.
Sentiment has experienced a downgrade and is in its lowest level since January 2016. Meanwhile the SSI also went down at +1.15, the lowest reading since January 31, 2016, entering short into the USD/JPY.
The USD/JPY set its record of one of the highest pip sell off at 2,000 pips last January 2016. This sudden surge of the USD/JPY and a decrease in SSI readings might be even more favorable for traders if the prices can break newly-forming resistances.
Attachment 12245
-
1 Attachment(s)
Fundamental Analysis: July 19 2016
Currency Pair GBP/USD (British Pound/U.S. Dollar) has earned 55 points just as the U.S paper dollars go through a few price differences. Short-term buyers are expecting to have a significant data set this impending week since the recent British Prime Minister is now working for a new trade agreement with Europe. The moving average of the sterling pound is 1.3237 and gained up to 0.5% that yielded $1.3256. The pound increased right after the time of announcing the deal for adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) and when the policymaker of the Bank of England, Martin Weale released a statement about the need of a firmer financial evidences in order to change bank policy and bring an impact to U.K after they leave EU behind.
The BOE provided an additional market liquidity and cutback the mandatory capital requirements for the credit unions. Most of the Monetary Policy Committee members is anticipating for a stable movement on the 4th of August immediately prior to the publication of economic conditions and forecast.
Eventually, Weale will hand his resignation in the rear of the meeting next month. He confirmed that there is no instances of panic selling or panic buying among traders and investors after the strong vote for Brexit last month. Weale also said that central banks are far beyond the horizon of the falling market.
Attachment 12246
-
1 Attachment(s)
Fundamental Analysis for EUR/USD: July 20, 2016
The EUR/USD pair went down to 1.1071 while traders sit in anticipation of the ECB meeting scheduled on Thursday, where Mario Draghi is expected to comment about the ECB bond buying program after it drained the market supply. On the other hand, the economic sentiment for the German ZEW went lower due to uncertainties brought about by Brexit, as well as Italian bank concerns and worldwide terrorism attacks.
The economic sentiment reading for the German ZEW went down drastically at -6.8 points. Meanwhile, the Eurozone ZEW sentiment numbers were released at -14.7 points, with both sentiment readings coming short of its expected numbers.
The Brexit vote will be affecting not only the German ZEW but also other european countries. Although the German economy has proven to be resilient enough, its economy is still prone to the negative effects of economic events in the nation, and the ZEW numbers is expected to reflect these repercussions.
The German ZEW economic sentiment surprised the market after a steep decline in July, its first since October 2014. It was initially forecasted to come in at +8.2 points.
Attachment 12247
-
1 Attachment(s)
EUR/JPY Fundamental Analysis: July 20 2016
The EUR/JPY recorded a downturn with an estimate of 35 points to 117.23 after euro traded a flat-lining, though the Japanese yen strongly gained a higher level just before the meeting of the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to be held next week, July 28-29. The BoJ expects that banks all over the world will cease the feverish trading cues. While the European Central Bank (ECB) already stated that they will set up a meeting this week.
The movement of Governor Kuroda's Mario Draghi recovered and will continue to affect him as he stands to lose through the monetary course. However, he can reconsider the route he used to take or measure the BoJ's quantitative easing then accept that he is suffering from defeat. On the other hand, Kuroda could apply the recommendation from the Chairman of the Federal Reserve, Ben Bernanke about the deflation of Japan for a long period of time.
Whereas, the conjecture of the BoJ on their upcoming meeting is that Japan will pursue the “helicopter money” in order to widen the perpetual bond payments. The analysts from Morgan Stanley pointed out about the reports issued last few months ago by which it appeared that BoJ had an increase on their purchases beyond their official year pace worth $750 billion.
Attachment 12248
-
1 Attachment(s)
Fundamental Analysis for USD/CAD: July 21, 2016
The USD gained an increase versus the CAD after investors paid more attention to a possible hike in US interest rates rather than a recovery in oil prices. The USD/CAD pair went up by 0.0036 or +0.28% at 1.3060.
On Tuesday, the USD/CAD sustained its support from traders after the release of a positive US housing starts data, causing a drastic change in the possibility of a Fed rate hike by at least 50%, after previous indicators showed only a 20% hike.
The USD was previously backed up by healthy June data of US Non-Farm Payrolls and an unexpected upsurge in retail sales data. On the other hand, the CAD was previously supported by the Bank of Canada’s decision to maintain its interest rates while rallying for a stronger and more stable economic status.
Attachment 12251
-
1 Attachment(s)
EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: July 21 2016
The EUR/USD gradually declined at 1.1009, dropping at 0.0011 or -0.10% because there is a build up of selling pressure that moves technically into a weaker global market since July 2014 which has 1.1164 as their highest points.
Investors are now fully prepared since the European Central Bank (ECB) have announced their monetary policy today thus resulted to a physically lower level of volume and volatility. According to the ECB, they planned not to enact new policy to their current protocol but it is still possible for the bank to issue a statement about the negative effects of inflation with response to the Brexit decision. After the dovish tone statement made by the ECB they intended to have a break for eight weeks.
The Brexit decision also affected the main driver of the price growth which is the relative value of U.S. Dollar. The report about the U.S Non-Farm Payrolls for the month of June made the dollar to settle against the Euro and the dollar continuously to heighten just as the U.S. Retail Sales excelled more over their anticipated outcome.
Yesterday, the report about the bullish housing were released and it supported the Fed rate to have a chance in increasing its rate hike up to 50% in response to the upcoming meeting on the month of December. Due to the absence of any major economic releases the market presented a two-way market on Wednesday.
In addition to the ECB announcement, traders can decide whether to cutback their positions over the long run since the EUR/USD may continue to finished a lower interest rate because of the rate differential against the U.S dollar. To wrap it up, the ECB could plan for an additional quantitative easing program while the U.S Fed is settling an increase for the recovery of the U.S dollar rate hike.
Attachment 12252
-
1 Attachment(s)
Fundamental Analysis for EUR/GBP: July 22, 2016
The EUR/GBP pair finished off last session with a gain of 27 points after the British Pound fell and the Euro sustained its value after the ECB held fast to its policy and rates. Traders are now monitoring Draghi’s address regarding the Brexit vote and the bond buying program. The ECB has left stagnant interest rates in the European Union.
However, the governing council has not taken any steps in spite of the uncertainties brought about by the Brexit referendum. The headline rates are still at zero and banks are still charged at 0.4% as penalty for leaving money inside the vaults of ECB. Retail sales on the other hand fell rapidly since December, with bad weather in the UK put to blame. Meanwhile the present currency volatility caused by the Brexit referendum and the recent attacks in Nice, France and Turkey continue to affect consumer confidence rates.
Attachment 12256
-
1 Attachment(s)
AUD/USD Fundamental Analysis: July 22 2016
The AUD/USD pair shifted from greater rates down to a lesser flat rates earlier today. The Australian dollar is experiencing an adverse situation since its net position turned down against the USD. The AUD trading rate is 0.7476. In spite of the relentless decline of the Aussie dollar, the Reserve Bank of Australia will uphold the reduction of the percentage rates within two weeks, although the rate of the US dollar is surging.
After an hour session last Wednesday, AUD/USD can be purchased at 0.7477 while the pair flattened again in the Asian trade. The New Zealand dollar also regressed with the AUD. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand released a statement about their reduction on the interest rates, with regards to the restoration of the economic performance that were issued after the session.
The investors are expectant about the diversion of the United States' monetary policy after the US Federal Reserve increased in percentage rate and the RBA made an interest rate recession. While the Aussie dollar could possibly heightened their rate since it happened last May 2015.
Attachment 12257
-
1 Attachment(s)
Fundamental Analysis for USD/CAD: July 25, 2016
The USD/CAD pair closed last week’s session with a gain of 1.21% at 1.3128 points as the commodity prices weighed in on the pair and the USD rallied on the commodity currency. After the Brexit vote, forecasts regarding the international economy has been dim, together with views that monetary policy is slowly fading away, with more and more institutions relying on borrowing policies to survive.
With the November elections just a few months away, the United States is now facing a period of economic uncertainty. Political and economic risks are felt worldwide not just because of the Brexit, but also of numerous terrorist attacks, particularly in France and Turkey.
A significant downgrade in Canada’s economic growth forecast from 1.6% to 1.4% signals a rapidly weakening global economy and business investments. The commodity-rich country experienced wildfires in Alberta, one of the country’s primary oil resources, which caused May’s energy-production shutdowns, according to the Conference Board of Canada last Thursday. The IMF later confirmed Canada’s economic downgrade, after their forecast for the Canadian economy showed a dip at 1.4% from 1.5%.
Attachment 12278
-
1 Attachment(s)
USD/JPY Technical Analysis: July 26, 2016
The USD/JPY pair closed Monday’s session with a more stable position, after investors chose to wait out Bank of Japan and Fed’s meetings.
The Yen remained unchanged during Monday’s session, but its bearish views are becoming more favored by the minute. The pair’s resistance came in at 107.00, while its support remained at a standstill at 106.00. MACD experienced a decrease and remained on the positive side, which indicates the weakening state of the buyers’ positions, while the RSI is still on the neutral side.
The USD/JPY remains above the EMAs of 50, 100, and 200 in the 4-hour chart, with its moving averages all moving upwards. A downward surge may soon start if USD/JPY falls below the 105.30 support level. If buyers maintain their control, the pair may go up to 107.00 and possibly even up to 108.00.
Attachment 12280
-
1 Attachment(s)
Fundamental Analysis for EUR/GBP: July 27, 2016
The EUR/GBP pair went up by 47 points as the British pound reversed its gains after comments from the Bank of England made traders upset, as well as forecasts that the UK will most probably go into recession after the Brexit vote. According to the Chartered Institute of Procurement and Supply (CIPS), which issues monthly Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) surveys of the UK economy, a “Flash UK PMI” survey will soon be published which will reportedly follow the principles of Markit’s Flash PMIs for the Eurozone.
Last week’s market activity already exhibited the effects of the Brexit vote on Britain’s declining economic status. An additional report from CIPS/Markit indicated that business activity in the region has been declining at a fast rate, its fastest since 2009. The Composite version of the survey which was released last Friday printed at 47.7, its lowest dip since April 2009.
Attachment 12288
-
1 Attachment(s)
NZD/USD Technical analysis: July 27 2016
Regardless of the news about the subsidence in the Trade Balance during the month of June, the NZ Dollar continued to increase at constant rate.
The currency rate of the NZD/USD sharply moved upward and dropped toward the resistance level of 0.7050. A break beyond the level of resistance or support made the bullish sign to fade considerably. The pair steep down the lower level at 0.7050 while bearish investors take control of the gaining market. As shown in the 4-hour chart of the NZD/USD currency pair, the resistance level is seen at 0.7050, the support lies at 0.6950.
The MACD is plotted along the centerline by which the histogram signals moves in the negative territory showing the strength of the seller but if the index swings to the positive territory, it only means that the buyers will keep control over the market. The momentum oscillator RSI is retraced to the area of the overbought condition in the market which may be observed as a sell signal.
As shown in the 4-hour chart, the New Zealand dollar was able to break the 50,100 and 200 day EMA . Though the bid or ask quotes did not pursue any further as well as the 100-EMA declined the currency pair, the moving average price of the NZD/USD is sloping downward with a bearish MACD which crosses over from the 50, 100, and 200 EMAs.
Trading analysts believes that the bearish market will continue to prevail in the market. Technically, the following stop price will be placed at 0.6980
Attachment 12289
-
1 Attachment(s)
GBP/USD Technical Analysis: July 28, 2016
The British Pound’s value decreased after Wednesday’s session in spite of the positive GDP data for the 2nd quarter of the year. But the sterling pound obtained support from the United States after the Fed’s decision to keep their rates unchanged.
The GBP/USD pair remained neutral all throughout the session last Wednesday, with its trading instrument maintaining a support of 1.3100. Meanwhile, the resistance amounted to 1.3300. MACD’s indicator has dropped near the centerline, which signals a negative outcome for this particular indicator. A lack of movement from the histogram and its refusal to leave negative territories will mean a significant increase in the strength of buyers. However, if the MACD returns to its positive state then the buyers will ultimately have the ball, while the RSI remains ambiguous.
A downward trend is also seen in the 50, 100, and 200-day EMAs, which eventually led to a bearish cross forming in the hourly charts. The instrument went over the said EMAs and went past the 1 hour chart.
Ultimately, trends are looking bearish, with the GBP/USD pair in danger of falling below 1.3100. But this does not not eliminate the possibility of the said currency pair experiencing an increase of up to 1.3300.
Attachment 12291
-
1 Attachment(s)
USD/JPY Fundamental Analysis: July 28 2016
Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is preparing to issue an economic stimulus package about the competitive sale of Japan's Fuji TV last Tuesday that reached around 27 trillion yen but Japanese Yen still declined against the U.S Dollar. The exchange rate of USD/JPY is 105.568, up 0.953 or +0.91%.
The report from Kyodo News about the upcoming announcement of Abe made the US Dollar to gain more over Yen instead, and it approximately achieve $354 billion or 28 trillion yen.
The stimulus plan of Abe is already prepared before the policy meeting of the Bank of Japan finishes on Friday. The BoJ will lend their support for the monetary policy stimulus.
USD/JPY is expected to receive a support from the U.S Federal Reserve policy statement if they would release it at 1800 GMT because the Fed would not modify their interest rate in any moment. However, many investors are anticipating for a rate hike in Fed since there is a fifty percent possibility that the BoJ will have an increased on interest rate just before the December meeting take place.
A Fed rate hike will probably occur this month when the U.S economic reports will suppose to have a stronger result than expected. The U.S Federal Reserve considers some improvement in the labor market, wage growth and inflation before establishing a rate hike before the year ends.
An inflation hawk will allow the pair USD/JPY to make a progress but may recede if the Fed finishes a dove stances. In the rear of such issues and feedback, the main subject will be the resolution of BoJ on Friday.
Attachment 12292
-
1 Attachment(s)
Fundamental Analysis for EUR/GBP: July 29, 2016
The EUR/GBP pair increased by 62 points after the euro went up and the sterling pound declined during Thursday’s session. The currency pair is presently trading at 0.8425 points. The British pound still continued its decline even after a reported second-quarter increase in UK’s economic growth, whose increase was initially seen to be a positive sign for the currency pair.
The UK economy went up by 0.6% during the second-quarter which was sealed by the controversial Brexit vote, a significant increase compared to the 0.4% during the first quarter of 2016. The British pound plummeted its lowest in two weeks after Bank of England policymaker Martin Weale said that PMI surveys would be of importance during BoE’s next policy meeting. He also added that in order for an interest rate cut to happen, there must be a concrete evidence of the UK economy losing its strength.
In July, the Bank of England shocked the financial market when it refused to snip the benchmark for the borrowing cost from its all-time low of 0.5%. However, decision details from last week’s BoE meeting showed that most policymakers will be expected to endorse a yet unknown set of measures in order to help strengthen Britain’s economy.
Attachment 12296
-
1 Attachment(s)
AUD/USD Technical Analysis: July 29 2016
The U.S Federal reserve remained their decision in keeping the rates constant but the dollar still falls below. The financial market is uncertain if the Fed will made some changes in U.S bank rates for the month of September.
The financial instrument stays well below from its daily high at 0.7550.The currency pair test the level 0.7500 and indicated a bearish side. The resistance level lies at 0.7600 while the support can be seen at 0.7500.
RSI occurred in the overbought market which implies a sell signal whereas the MACD depreciated by which resulted the position of the buyers to weaken.
The exponential moving average of the pair is directed to 50 and 100 day in the hourly chart. It also presented 50, 100 and 200 which are neutral moving averages.
In case that the price of the pair breaks beyond the resistance level of 0.7500 and bounds lower down the trendline is expected to continue. The next target of the investor is the support level at 0.7400.
Attachment 12297