Daily Market Review by FXCC June 13 2012

More Downgrades by Fitch as Spanish Bonds Soar

US stocks rose on speculation policy makers will do more to stimulate the economy. Commodities dropped for a fourth day and Spanish bonds fell. The advance in US stocks indicated the S&P 500 will rebound following last few days' biggest decline in more than a week. The Fed is scheduled to meet next week and announce its rate decision on June 20. European stocks rose for the first time in three days on speculation that the Federal Reserve will opt for more stimuli and as Lafarge SA targeted cost savings. Italy plans to auction at least 9.5bn of debt this week, while an election on June 17 may determine whether Greece remains in the euro.

Spanish bonds slumped for a second day after a European rescue of its banks was announced and Fitch Ratings said the government will miss its budget-deficit targets, casting doubt on Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy's plan to stabilize the economy. Japanese stocks fell as surging bond yields stoked concern a bailout of Spain's banks won't ease Europe's debt crisis. Shares pared losses as the yen halted gains after the International Monetary Fund said the currency is overvalued and urged further monetary easing.
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UPCOMING EVENTS :
2012-06-13 09:00 GMT | EMU - Industrial Production
2012-06-13 12:30 GMT | US - Producer Price Index
2012-06-13 12:30 GMT | US - Retail Sales
2012-06-13 12:30 GMT | US - Business Inventories

FOREX NEWS :
2012-06-13 04:28 GMT | EUR/USD a tricky day below 1.2500
2012-06-13 04:13 GMT | GBP/USD bracketed between 1.5540/1.5580
2012-06-13 02:50 GMT | NZD/USD gently offered after touching 4-wk high
2012-06-13 02:48 GMT | EUR/NZD breaks below 1.6100 and prints a 7-week low


EURUSD : 1.24888 / 1.24893
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY



1.2623 | 1.2576 | 1.2537
1.2451 | 1.2404 | 1.2365

SUMMARY : Neutral
TREND : Sideway
MA10 : Bearish
MA20 : Bearish
STOCHASTIC : Neutral


MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Today's technical's are mixed, MACD in buy territory, but others in sell; EUR risk is increasingly binary. Supports are seen at 1.2435, 1.2375 and then at 1.2310. On the other hand, resistance levels are seen at the 21DMA line at 1.2562 and then at 1.2672.

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GBPUSD : 1.55468 / 1.55471
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY



1.5743 | 1.5666 | 1.5609
1.5475 | 1.5398 | 1.5341

SUMMARY : Up
TREND : Up trend
MA10 : Bullish
MA20 : Bullish
STOCHASTIC : Neutral


MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Technical's are mixed and rangy, it could break out in either direction. However, given the overall bearish trend a break below 1.5445 might be confirmation of a downside breakout to 1.5325. Meanwhile a break higher might be confirmed by a rally above 1.5582 targeting 1.5675. The pair will find supports at the 10DMA line at 1.5443 and then at 1.5404. On the other hand, resistance levels are seen at 1.5582, 1.5601 and then at the 21DMA line at 1.5614. Better risk/reward elsewhere.

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USDJPY 79.659 / 79.665
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY



80.115 | 79.905 | 79.775
79.440 | 79.230 | 79.100

SUMMARY : Up
TREND : Up trend
MA10 : Bullish
MA20 : Bullish
STOCHASTIC : Overbought


MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

The 50‐day MA has crossed below the 100‐day (80.14 and 80.23, respectively),which is typically a medium term sell signal. However, if risk aversion is beginning to abate, which increasingly it appears to be doing, then the outlook for USDJPY will shift higher. Currently it has reached near the highs at 79.50. It may have completed its move higher and be on the way back down to the bottom of the range at 79.20. There is the possibility of a breakout after the consolidation move has completed. The pair has already broken out of a descending channel on the daily chart and further upside is possible despite waning momentum, with 80.20 targeted higher.

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd, (http://www.fxcc.com)