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GBP/USD riding turbulent gains
FXstreet.com (Chicago) - GBP/USD accumulates 0.12% daily gains so far after reaching weekly highs close to 1.5400 to quickly retrace below 1.5370 regions, where it currently navigates.
Outperforming data in the UK pushed the pound to higher levels as house prices (YoY) out beat expected 4.3% for a 4.6%. Yearly industrial and manufacturing production were 1.2% vs. previous -2.3% and an expected 0.6% as well as 2.0% vs. previous -2.9% respectively. Nonetheless, as trade balance data was released in the US at $-34.22B vs. previous $-44.10B and projected $-43.50B, the pound was sent to 1.5332 lows.
Price action indicated market participants were bullish as the price rose above 1.5370 regions within minutes. Trading at 1.5381, the FXstreet trend index reported the pair as slightly bullish with key supports at 1.5307, 1.5269 ahead of 1.5231 and resistances at 1.5429, 1.5468 and 1.5507
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Aug 6, 2013
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USD/CHF careens off 0.9270 level
FXstreet.com (New York) - The USD/CHF summarily reversed off the 0.9270 region Tuesday afternoon during US trading, diving deeper towards the 0.9250 level in short-order.
USD/CHF strategic bias
According to the Technical Analyst Team at ICN.com, “The USD/CHF failed to stabilize above Linear Regression Indicators but has yet to stabilize above 0.9265. Therefore, the possibility of a new attempt to the upside is valid today as long as the pair stabilizes above 0.9200.”
The USD/CHF seems quite a sizable distance away from the 0.9300 level, despite trading as high as 0.9297 earlier today. Presently, the pair is now operating at a -0.19% loss, buried at 0.9253. Briefing the technicals, the USD/CHF will look to test support at 0.9246, ahead of 0.9226, and 0.9176, calculates the Danske Research Team.
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USD/JPY back to the edge of the abyss
FXstreet.com (Chicago) - USD/JPY accumulated -3.43% monthly losses, -1.20% weekly losses and 0.61% daily losses as the pair was unable to maintain its position above 98.00 key psychological support.
Price action indicated the greenback weakened against a stronger yen up 0.62% in terms of relative performance. After navigating above the 98.5 regions, the price cracked down back to 6-weeks low levels. On outlook for the BoJ’s monetary policy statement later this week, market participants seemed to feel bearish against the dollar.
Trading at 97.71, the pair oscillated between supports at 97.57 (June 5th highs), 97.41 (June 27 lows), 97.21 (June 21st lows) and resistances at 97.75 (June 11 lows), 97.83 (June 26 lows) ahead of 97.95 (June 24 lows). The ICN technical analysis team confirmed bearish sentiment based on the following statements: “After touching levels around 98.60, the pair dropped proving its bearish bias. Stochastic is becoming more negative reflecting the negative bias, as RSI is moving to the downside below line 50. The pair is also stable below Linear Regression Indicators, therefore we hold on to our negative expectations.”
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Flash: Is GBP/USD undervalued heading into BoE? – BMO Capital Markets
FXstreet.com (New York) - The current net short positioning in the GBP based on CFTC data alone appears to be a remnant of two things, primarily: the early 2013 GBP sell-off and the embedded GBP weakness inspired by the July BoE statement alongside the concurrent slump in UK rates, suggests Greg Anderson, Global Head of FX Strategy at BMO Capital Markets.
Key quotes
“With this in mind, the most likely avenue for shock in FX over tomorrow’s BoE event risk would appear to the upside in GBP/USD.”
“Should the BoE formally adopt Fed/ECB-style forward guidance on rates and leave market participants on a purely data-dependent path, we think its unlikely that the GBP will remain below $1.5450, given the extent of upside surprises in the recent dataflow.”
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Aug 6, 2013
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Flash: Yen Bid Ahead of BOJ Decision - BBH
FXstreet.com (London) - Marc Chandler, Global Head of Currency Strategy at BBH highlights the BoJ.
Key Quotes:
“The BOJ's 2-day meeting concludes tomorrow. Although surveys show not expectations for new initiatives, a Bloomberg poll found that the vast majority of those queried expect the BOJ to increase the amount of its asset purchases in the coming months. Five see the action coming in the fourth quarter this year, 15 in H1 14, and 5 in H2 14 or later”.
“The BOJ has revised up its assessment of the economy for seven consecutive months, but recent data has been disappointing and growth next year is anticipated to slow, partly under the weight of the controversial retail sales tax that is to be implemented in April 2014 and another hike in Oct 2015”.
“The BOJ has successfully managed to stabilize the JGB market after a rise in both yields and volatility followed the announcement of very aggressive asset purchase program in about four months ago. The BOJ is buying JPY7 trillion (~$72 bln) a month of securities, mostly JGBs”.
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Aug 7, 2013
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FGBP/USD rally capped at 1.5530 region
FXstreet.com (New York) - The GBP/USD foreign exchange rate surged higher throughout US trading, having jumped on the BoE, though the rally seems to have cooled recently.
Presently, the GBP/USD is operating off its highs at 1.5532, now testing 1.5500 in these moments. Technically speaking, resistances will trigger for the pair at 1.5500, onto 1.5550, and 1.5570, notes the Technical Analyst Team at ICN.com.
GBP/USD strategic bias
The BoE Inflation Report was the Bank’s official start of forward guidance, and it’s hard to interpret the document as anything but dovish. In addition to clearly talking down rates—as they did in their July meeting – the Bank also upheld the potential for further QE if conditions warrant.
According to the TD Securities Team, “Despite the clearly dovish implications of the report, it seems to have some credibility issues with the market, with the moves in GBP interest rate futures running counter to what would be expected. The GBP/USD reaction was initially negative, but has quickly turned and the currency is now at a fresh cycle high in the July/August bull run. The reaction may not be complete however, and today could remain a volatile day for the GBP.”
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Aug 7, 2013
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Flash: CAD Technical Outlook –TD Securities
FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - Research teams at TD Securities offer their analyses on CAD.
Key Quotes:
“USD/CAD recovery stalls in the mid 1.04 area today but broader signals are very constructive and we look for the USD bull trend to get back on track quickly”.
“Modest USD/CAD dips are a buy”.
“EUR/CAD pushes through 1.38”.
“AUD/CAD stabilizes but weak trend shows no sign of reversing”.
“GBP/CAD spikes towards the upper end of the broader trading range”.
“CAD/JPY downtrend pick up momentum again”.
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EUR/USD keeps pushing higher
FXstreet.com (Edinburgh) - The bloc currency is inching higher on Tuesday, lifting the EUR/USD to another test of weekly highs around 1.3330.
EUR/USD consolidating above 1.3300
The EUR rally is picking up pace in the European afternoon, bolstered by investors’ preference for riskier assets in detriment of the greenback, dragged to session lows – in terms of the Dollar index. According to weekly charts, Tim Riddell, Head of Global Markets Research at ANZ suggested, “Despite pockets of apparent impulsive price action, the broader profile remains that of a likely protracted consolidation pattern into year end. The near term show of strength could trigger an early push towards the upper bounds of the range, but the favoured profile is for failure in front of 1.35 and for an interim flush to define range support – beware bull-traps”.
EUR/USD levels to watch
At the moment the pair is up 0.0314 at 1.3324 and a breakout of 1.3345 (high Jul.31) would target 1.3417 (high Jun.19) en route to 1.3456 (high Feb.14). On the downside, the immediate support aligns at 1.3246 (low Aug.6) followed by 1.32233 (low Aug.5) and then 1.5200 (psychological level).FXstreet.com (Edinburgh) - The bloc currency is inching higher on Tuesday, lifting the EUR/USD to another test of weekly highs around 1.3330.
EUR/USD consolidating above 1.3300
The EUR rally is picking up pace in the European afternoon, bolstered by investors’ preference for riskier assets in detriment of the greenback, dragged to session lows – in terms of the Dollar index. According to weekly charts, Tim Riddell, Head of Global Markets Research at ANZ suggested, “Despite pockets of apparent impulsive price action, the broader profile remains that of a likely protracted consolidation pattern into year end. The near term show of strength could trigger an early push towards the upper bounds of the range, but the favoured profile is for failure in front of 1.35 and for an interim flush to define range support – beware bull-traps”.
EUR/USD levels to watch
At the moment the pair is up 0.0314 at 1.3324 and a breakout of 1.3345 (high Jul.31) would target 1.3417 (high Jun.19) en route to 1.3456 (high Feb.14). On the downside, the immediate support aligns at 1.3246 (low Aug.6) followed by 1.32233 (low Aug.5) and then 1.5200 (psychological level).
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Precious metals consolidating, gold still held below 1300.00
FXstreet.com (New York) - Precious metals have been trading higher Wednesday, refusing to break lower below pre-established supports.
Gold consolidates
Gold prices have been consolidating within a tight range below 1288.00 resistance level, where the latest bearish wave continues to be intact, and thus the suggested bearish scenario. The price is approaching a pivotal support at 1268.00 which if broken will confirm further downside. At the time of writing, gold prices are trading at USD $1287.15 per oz. Wednesday.
Silver support is intact
Silver spot prices were pushing lower, attempting to break below 19.25 support level, so far the support is still intact – a sustained break below shall confirm further downside. The price of silver has now moved to USD $19.55 per oz. during US trading.
WTI maintains neutrality
WTI crude oil continues to fluctuate above the ascending support for the bullish wave, and below 105.85 resistance level, and thus the bias remains neutral, unless we see a break below or above the aforementioned levels. In these moments, WTI crude oil is negotiating a price of USD $104.93/bbl Wednesday.
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Flash: EUR/USD scope for 1.3417 – UBS
FXstreet.com (New York) - UBS Strategists, Gareth Berry and Geoffrey Yu take a technical perspective at today's EUR crosses.
Key quotes
“With the EUR/USD bull trend intact, as reflected by the MACD above its zero line potential is for the pair to move above 1.3345 to test the key resistance at 1.3417. Support is at 1.3233 ahead of the critical 1.3120, suggesting a bullish outlook.”
In terms of the EUR/CHF, “With the trending and momentum pointing lower potential remains for further downside. Support is at 1.2268 ahead of 1.2219. Upside should be limited with a strong resistance is at 1.2348.”
Moving to the EUR/GBP, “Following the test of critical support at 0.8628, the cross advanced. Potential is for a move above 0.8694 to test the critical resistance at 0.8815.” Finally, concerning the EUR/JPY, “With the MACD still above the zero line, the risk is for further upside. Resistance is at 133.80. Any downside will again be held by strong support at 128.86.”
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