My Baseball Picks For Tonight

[hoagie]

Hi. Here is a repost of a thread I started last week followed by my picks for tonight. Some of you wanted me to post these. You'll find them at the bottom of this post.

My Baseball Picks
Hi all. I’ve received a few pm’s regarding my baseball system since I replied to the “Who is the best handicapper” thread. I replied that, when it comes to Major League Baseball, I was the best. The system I use is correct 95% of the time over the course of a season.
A professional statistician who had me promise not to reveal the system taught me and I will honor my promise. I can, however share my picks. I’m in the process of building my website right now www.mybaseballpicks.com (under construction) where I’ll be offering all of my picks for the 2008 Major League Baseball season.
This current 2007 season is almost over (my picks run from approx May until the end of August). I give teams the first 3-4 weeks of April to settle in and, because some playoff positions can be decided by the end of August, I stop picking around that time.
I’m going to put my butt on the line and post my picks as they come up in this forum for the rest of this season just so you all can see that it really works and it works on average 95% of the time.
My picks are based on a 3 game series between 2 teams. This is where the system comes into play. Specific criteria and conditions must be present when deciding which series to pick. Winning only 1 of these 3 games (I bet accordingly) puts money in my pocket and constitutes a win. Losing all 3 games in a series, which is very rare, means a loss.
Honestly, over the last 3 seasons this system has been correct 95% of the time over the course of a season. No lie.
Here is an example of how this works but please don’t ask me to reveal the system because I will not. A promise is a promise.
Using the criteria and conditions that MUST be present, I identify a series. Then, lets say I want to win $10 on this series. I logon to my sports book and check the odds, which tells me how much I have to bet to win $10. Say the odds dictate that I would have to bet $15 to win $25 (my $15 bet plus the $10 that I want to win = $25). If I win the 1st game – that’s it. I’m done and I move on to the next series. If I lose the first game I move on to the 2nd game. Remember I only have to win 1 of the 3 to be a winner. I check the odds for the 2nd game to determine how much I have to lay down to make back my bets plus the $10 I want to win. Again, if I win it’s over. If I lose I work the 3rd game in the same manner.
I am correct on average 95% of the time.
Here are my latest wins from 3 series that began on August 3/07. I identified the criteria and conditions necessary in the series between Seattle and Boston (I took Boston to win and they won it for me in the 2nd game); Texas and Toronto (I took Toronto to win and they won it for me in the first game); Tampa Bay and Baltimore (I took TB to win and they won it for me in the 2nd game). Sometimes I’ll play the money line (pick my team to win) and sometimes I’ll take the +1.5 runs (means that if they win the game OR only lose by 1 run – I win).

Anyway, like I said, I’m going to put my butt on the line and will post my picks on this forum on game day. I advise you not to bet – just watch this in action. By the way, I never bet more than 1 game in any single play and the way I bet, I need only win 1 game of the series to profit.
After checking for the necessary criteria and conditions, here are my picks for tonight August 6, 2007.
- Chi Cubs @ Houston: I’m picking Houston and taking the +1.5 runs (if they win the game or lose by 1 run I still win)
- Boston @ LA Angels: I’m picking LA to win.
If any of these 2 plays lose tonight I’ll have a look at them tomorrow and decide what my strategy will be. Remember that I'm not picking both teams on a single play. Only one team per play.
There you have it.