to rain on your parade but it wont revalue much higher than 1000-1 in the short term.
Iraq has only about 20 odd billion dollars in thier central bank as currency reserves.
With 14 trillion dinars in circulation in order to sustain an exchange rate of 1 dinar to 1 dollar they would need at least 14 trillion dollars.
Fraid thats going to be impossible for hundreds of years.
Also imagine the problems caused by suddenly increasing the value of the currency by 10000s of percent overnight.
Anyone in iraq with thier paycheque of 300000 dinars would now have 3 hundred thousand dollars in their pocket.
Would you rob someone for three hundred thousand dollars when the security over there is so bad? I guess so.
Also would you go to work tomorrow if you had just recieved 300000 dollars?
I doubt it.
How many would emmigrate?
How rich would you make the terrorists still in iraq to buy more weapons etc?
Any loss in confidence at all would immediatley bankrupt the CBI and in general F*** the economy over completely.
I dont know what rates your predicting but if they are anywhere above 1000-1 this year im sorry but it just wont happen.
Theres just so many blatently obvious social and economic problems with green lighting such an absurd revaluation.
Please dont say they can back the currency with oil because part of article VIII states that they must achieve a stable currency in order to rejoin the world markets as a viable country.
How are they going to acheive a stable currency rate when they base it on an unstable commodity.
Imagine what would happen if they invented an alternate energy source that was effective and cheap. Oil prices would crash and iraq would be all but ruined.
I know i might get a bashing for saying this stuff here but to all of you who cant see this genuinly and are not just dealers trying to pump sales i hope ive opened your eyes a bit further.
To all of you dealers in disguise i say bring yourself out into the open by bashing me with irrelevant personal attacks so we can see your true colours.
Any dealer\genuinly positive investor however who can combat my statements with relevant points on how they could reval above that rate with positives outweighing the negative i will respect you and your effort to debate with me.
I look forward to your responses.
To the moderator. Sorry i duplicate posted but i was unsure on where this would get the most attention.
I decided to make it a seperate thread.
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19-06-2006, 02:50 PM #1
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Sorry...
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19-06-2006, 04:22 PM #2
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Is anyone here actually competant enough to comment nay understand what ive said in my previous post?
No one is taking their investments seriously it seems.
Great strategy guys. really...
Do we have any people here who actually know the first thing about investing?
Seeing as how all these adverts on this website are scams i guess the people around here do not.
Ive probably just walked into another social club of people who know each other in real life making up stories and generally talking bullshit all the time.
Kinda like Investors iraq forum...
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19-06-2006, 04:32 PM #3
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Originally Posted by Loops
Everyone here has their own opinion on when and what the dinar will reval at, but because you have come here and challenged a debate and nobody has taken you up on it you have resorted to trying to start a fight with harsh words that are uncalled for.
Nobody here wants to have a pissing match with you, so if that is all you want, please take it back to where ever it is you came.
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19-06-2006, 04:33 PM #4
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Turn that frown upside down!
In a rather glum mood today? Better take a break from this happy place! I don't know if you can take it!
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19-06-2006, 04:40 PM #5
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Originally Posted by treasurhunter1
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19-06-2006, 04:47 PM #6
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Originally Posted by treasurhunter1
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19-06-2006, 05:20 PM #7
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I second that!!! Gooooooooo Dinars!!!!!!
Cheers,
Rob
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19-06-2006, 06:31 PM #8
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Hey Loops.
Its seems we see it the same way.
One thing i would like to correct maybe is this.
"With 14 trillion dinars in circulation in order to sustain an exchange rate of 1 dinar to 1 dollar they would need at least 14 trillion dollars."
I think its 14T printed dinars, in circulation it might be around 5T.
The central bank only needs a minimum of 10% in liquid to back up its currency. So 10% in this case means 1.4T$ US at a 1:1 rate. If the dinar pegs at 1:0.1 then the bank needs 140 billions. If the bank has a reserve of around 20B US you say, then they can achieve a 0.01 reval. I don't know about backing it with oil, but if they can.. it only helps.
Also
"imagine the problems caused by suddenly increasing the value of the currency by 10000s of percent overnight.
Anyone in iraq with thier paycheque of 300000 dinars would now have 3 hundred thousand dollars in their pocket."
This one bothers me too.. At the least, they would need to phase in smaller denominations into circulation very quickly. Because right now the smallest one is 25 dinars i believe. If it reval at 1:1 and 25$ is your smallest denomination, you have a problem. So it would be a good sign to see smaller notes or coins showing up.
The way I see it.. the transition from the current rate to 1:1 (exemple) would take time. smaller, steadier and more controled transition. To happen overnight seems just too chaotic. Goes along with CBI's goal to maintain a stable currency.
I still believe that its an interesting investment, even if its more likely to be long-term than short-term.
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19-06-2006, 06:56 PM #9
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I can't be bothered or have the time to debate this. You choose to believe what you want Loops, time will show who's right and who's wrong.
Zubaidi:Monetary value of the Iraqi dinar must revert to the previous level, or at least to acceptable levels as it is in the Iraqi neighboring states.
Shabibi:The bank wants as a means to affect the economic and monetary policy by making the dinar a valuable and powerful.
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19-06-2006, 07:09 PM #10
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Loops is off somewhere... if and when he returns, and nothing credible for those who wish to debate with him is apparent, I shall close this thrread and it shall be over & closed so no room for further aggravation caused on membership.
We shall give him some time till tomorrow evening to have his chance.
YB.
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