Will there be a coup d’état in Iraq?

“The staging of a coup d’état is still there in the minds of some politicians but the possibility of its success is no longer there in Iraq,” a high senior government official has been reported as saying.

To say military coups are not possible in Iraq is merely part of an offensive policy. A coup d’état and its specter is even there in the mind of the official himself.

Let us discuss the issue calmly. To give it its due, I think we may need more than one article.

When was the specter of military coups not part of Iraq’s political landscape? The answer is clear. Coups have always been there in Iraq. It did not matter whether Iraq was ruled by a democratic government or a despot. That is what its history tells us since it emerged as a state in the 1920s up to the period under U.S. military occupation.

And how should we view the U.S. occupation of Baghdad? It is none but a classical example of a military coup. In fact it is the worst example.

In Iraq-style coups, Iraqi tanks would barge into the presidential palace. In U.S. –style coup, American tanks barged into the presidential palace. The only difference is that the former tanks were made in Russia and the latter ones in the U.S.

How could any observer or official then say the possibility of staging a military coup in Iraq is an illusion? Those entertaining such ideas are simple-minded people who have not read Iraq’s history carefully.

Iraqi political mind is conspiracy-stricken by nature. There are no restraints to control such conspiratorial mind. The only thing that stops a coup from taking place is the presence of U.S. troops in the country. A coup against the government will be a coup against Washington. The U.S. will not let that happen.

But who could ascertain that the U.S. itself might not support some form of a coup in Iraq. This is indeed what bothers those who see the staging of a coup quite a possibility.

http://www.azzaman.com/english/index...02-03\kurd.htm

Will there be a coup d’état in Iraq? (2)

The place of military coups in Iraqi political life, as I said earlier, needs more than one article. The reason is the fear that what now looks like a possibility will sooner or later turn into reality.

Some observers dismissed even the suggestion that there could be a coup in Iraq. Others think that talking about coups in present day Iraq is like breaking a taboo. Military coups, they say, are the opposite of democracy.

Theoretically, coups are impossible to occur in democracies. But concepts like democracy have little meaning if they are not tested and tried on the ground.

The democracy which we crave for means political stability for the advanced countries practicing it. This type of democracy is not there in our country.

Our democracy has been a restricted and conditional one. It has been confined to a limited circle of factions and personalities committed to a political program agreed to prior to the country’s occupation.

Therefore there has been a lot filtering and sieving to allow only those meeting the restrictions and conditions to pass and take part in governing the country.

Our situation has some resemblance to what takes place in Iran where only those loyal to the supreme clerical ruler are allowed to proceed. The others are stopped half-way through.

Some of the restrictions even bring to mind what was prevalent under the former regime which placed tough conditions for candidates nominating for its rubber-stamped National Assembly or parliament.

The conditions imposed by the Debaathification Commission are in fact similar to those under the former regime. There is not much difference at all. It may look that we have diversity but this diversity is within one species and not a privilege available across the board of the society.

The commission’s main blunder is its failure to distinguish between members of the former Baath party and those diehards with unwavering loyalty to Saddam Hussein as a cult and family.

Not every member of the Baath party was loyal to Saddam Hussein or his policies. There is a big difference between “Saddamists” and “Baathists”. The commission is treating both the same way.

This blunder has made every Baathist a Saddamist whther they like it or not. And who was not a member of the Baath party. Without registering in the Baath party, there was no possibility for getting a job. And the government was almost the sole employer.

This political recipe has drastically failed on the ground and achieved nothing for the Iraqi people. The only success we have is the general elections, but even these cannot be held properly without U.S. protection and in the presence of its troops.

Conditions like these become a fertile ground for military coups. When the political elites are immersed in corruption up to their ears, and the people are furious and angry, the majority would not mind a change even if it occurs via a coup.

http://www.azzaman.com/english/index...02-04\kurd.htm

Will there be a coup d’état in Iraq? (3)

Politics is like football. The winner is only declared at the end of the game. But in football, the game is time-limited. In politics it is timeless.

Politics has one important characteristic to share with football. In both neither the winners nor the losers retain their status for ever.

However, politicians have the natural tendency of sticking to power no matter what. Thus the idea of a military coup is the only issue that is a matter of concern for Iraqi politicians inside government or outside.

Iraq is a country of ‘miracles’. Miracles not in the sense of things that are good. It is a country of miracles in its tragedies which those in power see as feats of success.

Otherwise how could someone expect Iraq’s most ranking officials paying gratitude to the U.S. for invading their country. How would one expect the highest level official to describe foreign occupation of his country as “liberation.”

No one knows how aggravated conditions have become in Iraq as the U.S. Here I mean its military commanders and not the administration in Washington.

But conditions are moving from bad to worse and provide no guarantees to all the players involved in them.

No one in Iraq in current circumstances can guarantee something for another. Because all of them own nothing. And for this reason all the players are paranoid, fearing what lurks ahead.

The unknown hiding somewhere is a coup that will turn everything upside down.

There are good signals for this to happen. The first is the open desire of Iraqi politicians to steal whatever comes to their hands, particularly the things that lead to swift wealth. Corruption is not only rampant. It has become a culture.

Saddam Hussein did not have 10 percent of the military and security might – national and foreign – currently deployed in Iraq. Still it was extremely hard to penetrate his security ranks.

Despite massive military and security forces the country is being infiltrated and security conditions are in shambles.

Iraq’s political cards are so mixed that the card of a military coup has been inserted in them without anybody noticing it.

http://www.azzaman.com/english/index...02-05\kurd.htm

Will there be a coup d’état in Iraq? (4)

There are two possible scenarios when talking about the specter of a coup in Iraq in the aftermath of the U.S. occupation of the country.

The chaos, which some described as “creative”, was in their eyes a means to put the house in order. They believed partial or total destruction leads to reconstruction.

This is what armed groups fighting under the umbrella of resistance might resort to do as part of a coup to change the status quo.

The other likelihood is a bid by an army general or armed factional groups to barge into the presidential palace as a final resort to gain power. Of course the possibility for this to happen is almost impossible so long as U.S. troops are in the country.

In the second instance there is no need for the plotters to bring radio and t.elevision under their control. Media are no longer pivotal for a coup. Every faction have their own media today.

Who will be storming the presidential palace? Certainly the armed forces. And if Iraqi political factions and their armed militias contemplate such a step, they will have to do it through their stooges in the army.

This might have been the reason which prompted Prime Minister Noori al-Maliki to issue orders forbidding political factions from meddling in the army affairs.

Maliki is aware of the conspiratorial nature of the Iraqi army. He knows the army which he raised might turn against him.

The Iraqi political scene is bound to change once U.S. troops are out of the country.

Once withdrawn, local forces will take over, and Iraq’s file will no longer be of international interest. It will be purely a domestic affair.

The possibility of a coup in these circumstances will be even higher. But no plotter and no coup would have the ability to spread control across the country. Coups will only have dominance over certain regions.

All countries in the region are readying themselves for the post-U.S. Iraq – an Iraq without U.S. troops.

The withdrawal of U.S. troops will amount to the coup that brought them in – through this coup the U.S. occupied Iraq in a humiliating and barbaric operation in which all slogans of democracy, freedom, human rights and liberation were trampled on.

Have Iraqi factions, those in the government and outside, prepared themselves for the post-U.S. Iraq? That is a question for which the answer is negative at least for the time being.

http://www.azzaman.com/english/index...02-06\kurd.htm

Will there be a coup d’état in Iraq? (5)

Iraqis were shocked twice in recent times. The first, the experience they went through under one party system for 35 years – the era of Saddam Hussein’s Baath party.

The second shock, whose impact is still felt, occurred with the U.S. invasion of the country and the creation of what looks like a multi-party system.

In the second shock, Iraqis were deceived twice. First, when they discovered that all the promises the U.S. made for them prior and during its invasion were hollow and false.

Iraqis were also shocked to discover that the political factions which arrived in Iraq on the heels of U.S. invasion saw themselves as “holy” in light of their inherent relations with religion or unwavering resistance of “imperialism”.

Under circumstances like these, Iraqis are left with a third alternative which unfortunately might be more shocking. But the shock this time will be felt less by Iraqis and much more by others.

All signals today point to the fact that the U.S. will support the status quo. It does not want to create circumstances that will derail its plan to get out of Iraq by the end of next year.

Therefore I believe that there is little chance for dramatic transformations in Iraq at least so far as U.S. troops are deployed in the country.

But once U.S. troops are out, things are bound to change. The factions the U.S. supported and installed in power will be exposed.

Iraqis will quickly discover that these factions’ ultimate aim has been to amass riches in an orchestrated campaign of corruption the like of which the world has never seen.

These factions realize they are unwanted in Iraq. What is keeping them in power is the might of U.S. military force.

The forthcoming elections will produce no surprises. The same factions with the same mentality will return to power.

When Iraqis find out that the massive wall of military might that prevents today from holding the current corrupt system to account has crumbled, things will change.

Iraqis are known to bury their anger – but only temporarily. They will sooner or later vent their anger. Conditions are becoming more and more fertile for change which in Iraq has always happened at the hands of plotters and coup hatchers.

http://www.azzaman.com/english/index...02-08\kurd.htm