Outside View: Will to win in Iraq
By LAWRENCE SELLIN
UPI Outside View Commentator
WASHINGTON, April 12 (UPI) -- The war on terror will not be won in Iraq or Afghanistan, but in the United States. It will be won not in the politics of Washington or the pronouncements of presidential candidates, but in the resilience of the American people and their willingness to trade short-term sacrifice for long-term security.
Americans need to brace themselves for something that might seem less than "victory" in Iraq. It is not going to be a replay of Gulf War I in 1991 with Gen. Norman Schwarzkopf triumphantly marching down Pennsylvania Avenue. The ending of the present conflict in Iraq may be nebulous, slow, painful and messy. Most Americans may have to accept it with grudging relief, while the rest of the world, especially our enemies, may view it as a massive defeat for the United States.

It may have been possible to keep Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein in his box with no-fly zones, sanctions and inspections. There was an equal chance that all these efforts would have eventually failed, making him more powerful and emboldened with Iraq becoming yet another fully functioning springboard for state-sponsored terrorism and proliferation of weapons of mass destruction.

On the other hand, there is now little doubt that the invasion and occupation of Iraq was planned and executed with a dangerous mixture of hubris and naiveté regarding what a post-Saddam Iraq might look like and what kind of military forces, economic investment and political efforts would be required to ensure success. One could reasonably argue that Saddam could have been contained and acted as a counterforce to Iranian aspirations for regional dominance. The irony of the current situation may be that the American-led overthrow of Saddam and our "siding" with the Shiite majority may have made Iranian efforts easier.

If the Iraq War turns out badly, it will be because the United States as a nation was never fully engaged beyond the first month or so. Except for a relatively brief surge in patriotic fervor after Sept. 11, 2001, the national anger quickly returned to business as usual. Many Republicans milked the patriotic trend and the images of quick victory until the situation started to go south. The Democrats couldn't decide if they were for or against the war. Much of the business community has seen it as a chance to cash in, not as a vital struggle for U.S. national survival. The only Americans who have been really sacrificing are the members of the military and their families. In comparison to how World War II affected the nation, the personal and national investment in the "war on terror" has been the equivalent of one huge collective shrug of the shoulders.

If the American people really cared about the war on terror, they would have demanded much more of their national leaders and themselves. As a start, they would have insisted that a serious energy policy be instituted that would not facilitate putting vast amounts of wealth in the hands of nut-case nations that use terrorism as a form of foreign policy or export radical religious beliefs with the intent of undermining our liberties. They would elect leaders who would properly fund the armed forces and enact laws to protect the nation, not for some short-term electoral advantage or the result of some warped notion of political correctness.

The final phase of the Iraq War may be beginning to play out. If the present military surge is not successful or if success is short-circuited by an impatient U.S. Congress, it may lead to American forces being pushed to the periphery and an Iraq divided along ethnic and religious lines: an Iranian-dominated Shiite mini-state, a lawless Waziristan-type Arab Sunni area and an isolated and threatened Kurdish region. None of these entities would be self-sustaining, but would quickly evolve into spheres of influence or, more aptly, spheres of instability.

Under such conditions, would the United States have the wherewithal to stay engaged with an enemy determined to destroy it? It is difficult to say.

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(Lawrence Sellin, Ph.D., is an Afghanistan veteran.)

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(United Press International's "Outside View" commentaries are written by outside contributors who specialize in a variety of important issues. The views expressed do not necessarily reflect those of United Press International. In the interests of creating an open forum, original submissions are invited.)


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