Don't worry about the 95% cutoff in HYIP Effects!

Many people are worried about the total withdrawn/total deposited percentage getting too high and eventually reaching 95%.

!!!!!!!!!!DON'T WORRY!!!!!!!!!!

The total withdrawn/total deposited percentage is not a full and accurate reflection of the future life span of this GREAT programme.

??????????WHY??????????

It is because the total withdrawn/total deposited percentage is bound to increase as the programme progresses, assuming a stable level of active deposits (total deposited minus total withdrawn). Therefore the percentage doesn't necessarily reflect the true picture. I would rather go for a stable level of active deposits.

Look at the following table. (The level of active deposits is taken as 80000, being the average of 70000 and 90000, the usual range these days.)

Total deposited Total withdrawn Percentage Active deposits
1 100000 20000 20% 80000
2 200000 120000 60% 80000
3 300000 220000 74% 80000
... ... ... ...
4 500000 420000 84% 80000
5 600000 520000 87% 80000
... ... ... ...
6 1000000 920000 92% 80000
... ... ... ...
7 1600000 1520000 95% 80000

The total withdrawn/total deposited percentage is bound to climb and eventually reach 95% or higher.

However, is Stage 7 (with a total withdrawn/total deposited percentage of 95%) financially worse off than Stage 2 (with a total withdrawn/total deposited percentage of only 60%)?

!!!!!!!!!!THE ANSWER IS 'NO' !!!!!!!!!!

Stage 7 and Stage 2 are not worse or better off than each other. Look at their levels of active deposits, which are a sign a future liabilities of the programme, that is, the deposits on which returns are yet to be paid. Both of them read 80000. Both stages need the same amount of money to pay returns on the active deposits.

So I would say if we can keep the level of active deposits relatively stable, we don't have to worry about the total withdrawn/total deposited percentage.

Or take it one step back, even if we ONLY look at the total withdrawn/total deposited percentage and ignore the level of active deposits, how different are 96% and 77%? These two figures only represent past liabilities met. Is the future of a programme indicated by what it has used to pay in the past OR WHAT IT NEEDS TO PAY IN FUTURE?

!!!!!!!!!! ONE LAST THING FOR LUKE !!!!!!!!!!

Luke, given the above explanation, may I boldly suggest that you cancel the plan to stop payments at 95%. The total withdrawn/total deposited percentage doesn't mean anything and setting the cutoff at 95% only reinforces people's FALSE belief that it is an important indication. Moreover, such an act will spark a avanlanche of negative votes and comments across all the rating sites and hyip forums as people WRONGLY believe the programme must be unable to pay the returns. Who will put in more money at that time?

Sorry for being long-winded.

Nick
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http://www.hyipeffect.com/?ref=nchani