What Happens During a Recession?

Daily Market Commentary for February 18, 2009 from Millennium-Traders.Com

The U.S. is in a "serious recession," and the contraction so far may be worse than first thought, Evans noted that the economy shrank 3.8% in the fourth quarter and added that "recent data suggest that the revisions will make this figure even worse." (read more)

Economic data released today:

Import and Export Prices:
U.S. January Import Prices down 1.1% compared to consensus of a drop by 1.5%: U.S. January Non-Petroleum Import Prices down 0.8%; U.S. January Petroleum Import Prices down 2.4%.

Housing Starts:
U.S. January Housing Starts fell 16.8% to 466,000 compared to consensus of a drop by 4.9%; U.S. Building Permits fell 4.8% to 521,000 Rate in January; U.S. December Housing Starts Revised to a drop by 14.5% from a drop by 15.5%.

Industrial Production and Utilization:
U.S. January Industrial Production fell 1.8% compared to consensus of a drop by 1.7%; U.S. December Industrial Production Revised to a drop by 2.4% from a drop by 2.0%; U.S. January Capacity Utilization lower by 1.3-Points at 72.0% compared to consensus of 72.3%; U.S. December Capacity Use Revised to 73.3% from 73.6%

FOMC Minutes:
Fed lowers forecast for 2009 economy; see no sign housing beginning to stabilize; some FOMC members fear commercial real estate to fall sharply; expect business spending to contract rapidly; proposed stimulus could boost consumer spending; boost to spending could be short-lived; Fed raises forecast for economy in 2010, 2011; Fed sees GDP lower by 1.3% to a drop by 0.5% in 2009; Fed sees GDP 2.5% to 3.3% in 2010; Fed sees GDP 3.8% to 5.0% in 2011; Fed sees GDP up 2.5%-2.7% over longer run; Fed revises up jobless rate in 2009 to 8.5% to 8.8%; Fed revises up jobless rate in 2010 to 8.0% to 8.3%; Fed revises up jobless rate in 2011 to 6.7% to 7.5%; Fed sees jobless rate 4.8% to 5.0% over longer run; Fed lowers inflation forecasts for 2009, 2010, 2011; Fed Sees PCE inflation 0.3% to 1.0% in 2009; Fed Sees PCE inflation 1.0% to 1.5% in 2010; Fed Sees PCE inflation 0.9% to 1.7% in 2011; Fed Sees PCE inflation 1.7% to 2.0% over longer run; Fed Sees Core PCE inflation 0.9% to 1.1% In 2009; Fed Sees Core PCE inflation 0.8% to 1.5% in 2010.

At the NYSE closing bell on the New York Stock Exchange, here is how the major world indices and major U.S. stock indices ended the trading session on the world markets as well as the emerging markets including the stock market closing bell price:
DOW (Dow Jones Industrial Average) gain of 2.79 points to end the trading session at 7,555.39
NYSE (New York Stock Exchange) loss of 14.57 points to end the trading session at 4,924.54
National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotations (NASDAQ) loss of 2.69 points to end the trading session at 1,467.97
S&P 500 (SPX) loss of 0.75 points to end the trading session at 788.42
BEL 20 (BEL20) loss of 27.04 points to end the trading session at 1,756.19
CAC 40 (CAC40) loss of 1.16 points to end the trading session at 2,874.07
FTSE100 (UKX100) loss of 27.30 points to end the trading session at 4,006.83
NIKKEI 225 (NIK/O) triple digit loss of 111.07 points at the end the trading session at 7,534.44

New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) stock market indicators for the trading session today:
Advanced stock prices 891, declined stock prices 2,222, unchanged stock prices 87, stock prices hitting new highs 3 and stock prices hitting new lows 302. NYSE quotes for volatile stocks and market trends, as well as stock quotes, stock prices and stock symbols of Day Trading Stock Picks on the New York Stock Exchange stock market for Day Trading online and active Day Trading for those who are or would like to be Day Trading for a living: Hess Corporation (NYSE: HES) stock price shed 0.77 points on the trading session, high on the trading session $53.72, low on the trading session $50.90, with a closing stock price at $51.81; United States Steel Corporation (NYSE: X) stock price shed 1.87 points on the trading session, high on the trading session $27.70, low on the trading session $24.71, with a closing stock price at $25.46; ProShares Ultrashort S&P 500 (NYSE: SDS) stock price gained 0.62 points on the trading session, high on the trading session $89.09, low on the trading session $85.43, with a closing stock price at $87.50; Prudential Financial Incorporated (NYSE: PRU) stock price gained 0.02 points on the trading session, high on the trading session $23.32, low on the trading session $21.56, with a closing stock price at $22.61; Potash Corporation Saskatchewan (NYSE: POT) stock price gained 3.61 points on the trading session, high on the trading session $82.19, low on the trading session $76.39, with a closing stock price at $81.73.

National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotations (NASDAQ) stock market indicators for the trading session today:
Advanced stock prices 975, declined stock prices 1,763, unchanged stock prices 165, stock prices hitting new highs 9 and stock prices hitting new lows 262. NASDAQ quotes, volatile stocks and market trends, as well as stock quotes, stock prices and stock symbols of Day Trading Stock Picks on the NASDAQ stock market for Day Trading online and active Day Trading for those who are or would like to be Day Trading for a living: Volcano Corporation (NasdaqGS: VOLC) stock price gained 1.76 points on the trading session, high on the trading session $15.39, low on the trading session $14.41, with a closing stock price at $15.23; Intuitive Surgical Incorporated (NasdaqGS: ISRG) stock price shed 0.68 points on the trading session, high on the trading session $108.96, low on the trading session $103.65, with a closing stock price at $106.59; Baidu, Incorporated (NasdaqGS: BIDU) stock price gained 6.65 points on the trading session, high on the trading session $130.10, low on the trading session $123.35, with a closing stock price at $129.00; First Solar Incorporated (NasdaqGS: FSLR) stock price shed 4.41 points on the trading session, high on the trading session $135.78, low on the trading session $128.71, with a closing stock price at $129.22.

Market trends on the American Stock Exchange (AMEX) and stock market indicators for the trading session today:
Advanced stock prices 206, declined stock prices 344, unchanged stock prices 68, stock prices hitting new highs 7 and stock prices hitting new lows 24.

Chicago Board of Trade Futures Market for the day, at time of this posting:
E-mini S&P 500 (ES) Mar 09: End of trading session price 783; Change for the trading session -2.50
E-mini NASDAQ-100 (NQ) Mar 09: End of trading session price 1,184.75; Change for the trading session 2.25
E-mini DOW $5 (YM) Mar 09: End of trading session price 7,509; Change for the trading session 2
E-mini S&P MidCap 400 (MF) Mar 09: End of trading session price 473.60; Change for the trading session -6.90
E-mini S&P Small Cap 600 (HS) Mar 09: End of trading session price 7,545; Change for the trading session 120

World Currencies for the Forex Market, for Forex Trading by active Forex Traders, at time of this posting:
Euro 0.7973 to U.S. Dollars 1.2543
Japanese Yen 93.830 to U.S. Dollars 0.0107
British Pound 0.7032 to U.S. Dollars 1.4221
Canadian Dollar 1.2588 to U.S. Dollars 0.7944
Swiss Franc 1.1767 to U.S. Dollars 0.8498

COMMODITY MARKETS:
Energy Sector - Nymex:
Light Crude (March 09) shed $0.31 on the trading session for a closing price of $34.62 per barrel ($US per barrel)
Heating Oil (March 09) shed $0.04 on the trading session for a closing price of $1.14 a gallon ($US per gallon)
Natural Gas (March 09) gained $0.02 on the trading session for a closing price of $4.24 per million BTU ($US per mmbtu.)
Unleaded Gas (March 09) shed $0.05 on the trading session for a closing price of $1.07 a gallon ($US per gallon)

Metals Markets - Comex:
Gold (April 09) gained $10.70 on the trading session for a closing price of $978.20 ($US per Troy ounce)
Silver (March 09) gained $0.28 on the trading session for a closing price of $14.29 ($US per Troy ounce)
Platinum (April 09) gained $0.60 on the trading session for a closing price of $1,109.90 ($US per Troy ounce)
Copper (March 09) gained $0.01 on the trading session for a closing price of $1.45 ($US per pound)

Livestock and Meat Markets - Chicago Mercantile Exchange (cents per lb.):
Lean Hogs (April 09) shed 0.25 on the trading session for a closing price of 61.75
Pork Bellies (March 09) shed 0.60 on the trading session for a closing price of 80.90
Live Cattle (April 09) shed 1.30 on the trading session for a closing price of 84.65
Feeder Cattle (March 09) shed 2.60 on the trading session for a closing price of 91.90

Other Commodities - Chicago Board of Trade (cents per bushel):
Corn (March 09) shed 1.00 on the trading session for a closing price of 358.00
Soybeans (March 09) shed 18.00 on the trading session for a closing price of 886.50

BOND MARKET:
2 year Bond Closing price 99 27/32, change -5/32, Yield 0.95, Yield change 0.09
5 year Bond closing price of 99 25/32, change -21/32, Yield 1.79, Yield change 0.14
10 year Bond closing price 100 4/32, change -24/32, Yield 2.73, Yield change 0.08
30 year Bond closing price 99 19/32, change -22/32, Yield 3.52, Yield change 0.04

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