It Is Risky To Trust Hyip/autosurf Programs.

I discovered so many problems and I have to conclude that now hyips/autosurfs are almost as unpredictable as gambling.

I arrived to that conclusion by doing things anyone should do prior investing and still ending up losing.

To clarify if I did everything right, I will explain it in details:
1 - Goal is to find program which looks good and offer reasonable return.
2 - I browse sites like this forum to find program.
3 - By doing fast review I exclude program with no potential. For me these are: bad looking (unprofessional) programs, programs with unsustainable or illogical plans, programs with tricky terms...
4 - If admin don't/can't afford to spend money for advertising, thus, high probability, it will get very few investors and bankrupt, I would avoid it.

I always thought, it would be considerably lower risk to invest in "good programs".
With the programs around these days, its not so easy.
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We must take into consideration admin's intention and possibility that circumstances arose to make him change his original plan. Its often impossible to figure this out.

What kind of person is admin and what admin is planing to do?
There are three possibilities:
1- "serial scammers".
Run multiple programs with intention to collect as much money as possible, while paying nothing or very little, and run away.
2 - "experienced admins"
Run multiple programs with intention to pay to members as long as possible while taking some percentage for himself.
3 - "new admins"
Had to have decent knowledge about managing web sites and good understanding about investing to create attractive program. Some would intend to operate like admins described in first category, some like admins from second category, some with new ideas to make self sustainable program.
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I think, the thing what makes hyips/autosurfs so risky is: too many new programs are owned by admins from first and second category.

To avoid being scammed by "serial scammers", we can just wait for a while to see if program pays.

If program demonstrated intention to pay, we arrive to next problems:
1 - Its probable, admin is "experienced admin" and some investors would find skeletons in admin's closet, tie new program with bankrupted program and make negative publicity. This would usually force admin to close newest program.
2 – While we wait to see if program going to pay, "hit and run" investors were in before us, and program can run out of money.
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Conclusion: There are good programs and honest admins around, but its not easy to find and join them on right time because its very risky to invest in new programs and, if investing in programs with good track record, still many things can go wrong.

Probably safest strategy is "hit and run" and, if program continue to pay, come back later to reinvest.
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Do you agree with my observations and conclusions?
If no, please elaborate.
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Because there is market for program where investors cold safely invest, I decided to try and make one.
As I wrote above, we can not trust new program admins, so why anyone should trust me?
What if you did not have to trust me?

What if such program configuration is set that at any given moment of time amount of money admin could take by not processing withdrawals would be comparatively very small?

To make self sustaining program, variable interest is most reasonable choice.

I however see one thing going wrong if too many "hit and run" investors join within few days and quit. Then variable interest could fall too low before alternate income source generate sufficient funds to sustain reasonable interest percentage.

If you usually prefer "hit and run" strategy, I have a question for you.
Would this mean something if, with a reasonable degree of certainty, you could know "program's owner isn't going to run away with my money"?