Thread: InstaForex Wave Analysis

Technical analysis of EUR/USD for July 15, 2015


The pair managed to move higher, but rejected at the higher levels again. It closed below 100Dsma. ZEW indicator of economic sentiment inGermany slightly declined in July 2015. It decreased by 1.8 points compared to the previous month and now stands at the level of 29.7. Besides, US retail sales data unexpectedly fell down 0.3%. May's numbers were revised little bit down. Trend- The weekly resistance is seen at 1.1035, 1.1095, and 1.1125. Until the pair closes below 1.1125 use every rise to sell towards 1.0720 and even 1.0500. Earlier, the pair made a double top at 1.1465 and at 1.1225 is a new cap. We are pesimistic about the longer-term forecast. Intraday- The pair was rejected at 100Dsma (1.1020) again at today's Asian session.The intraday support is found at 1.0990 and 1.0970. Strong selling emerges below 1.0890 towards 1.0850 initially. Later, it is likely to expand a bearish wave towards 1.0720. Intraday resistance is seen at 1.1020, 1.1050, and 1.1085. The selling trade is available with sl 1.1025 targets at 1.0970, 1.0950, 1.0920, and 1.0890. If a bounce takes place, use rises to sell with sl 1.1070 during a day.


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GBP/USD - Weekly and Monthly Pivot Points for July 02 - 06, 2012


Technical outlook and chart setups:
Silver is trading around the level of $15.05 after hitting lows at $15.00 overnight. Please note that the metal is trading right around its fibonacci 0.618 support around $15.00/20 as depicted here. Furthermore, the metal had taken out resistance at $15.85 earlier, and is expected to move higher towards $16.40/50. It is hence recommended to remain long for now with risk at $14.30 . Immediate support is seen at $14.50/60 followed by $14.30 and lower, while resistance is seen at $16.40 followed by $17.20 and higher respectively.


Trading recommendations:
Remain long, stop is at $14.30, a target is open.


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Technical analysis of USD/CHF


USD/CHF is expected to consolidate with bullish bias after hitting the 2.5-month high 0.9550 on Wednesday. It is underpinned by the positive dollar sentiment, the drop in the Swiss ZEW - Credit Suisse indicator of economic sentiment to -5.4 in July from 0.1 in June, the threat of the Swiss National Bank to carry out CHF-selling intervention, and the negative Swiss interest rates.


Technical comment: The daily chart is positive-biased as the MACD and stochastics are bullish, although the latter one is at overbought levels.


Trading recommendations: The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a wider range as long as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price holds above its pivot point, long positions are recommended with the first target at 0.96 and the second target at 0.9645. In the alternative scenario, short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.9470 if the price moves below its pivot points. A break of this target is likely to push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 0.9440. The pivot point is at 0.95. Resistance levels: 0.96 0.9645 0.9690 Support levels: 0.9470 0.9440 0.94


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Technical analysis of AUD/USD for July 20, 2015





Ahead of the major events, the aussie is trading lower against USD. Monetary policy meeting minutes ate due today, data on CPI and speech of RBA governor Stevens are scheduled for tomorrow. Today, the pair opened on a bearish note. The nearest support zone is found at 0.7330, 0.7300, and 0.7250. In the daily chart, the pair closed below a neckline of a bearish h&s pattern. This indicates further lows in the coming weeks. The weekly resistance is seen at 0.7380, 0.7420, and 0.7500. Earlier, the pair made a double top at 0.7500. Use rises to sell until the price closes below 0.7500. At the intraday session, selling is available below 0.7330 with targets at 0.7300, 0.7250, and 0.7220.


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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for July 21, 2015





Given lack of macroeconomic data, today is understandably a quiet day on the euro and USD markets. Things should pick up rapidly on Friday, however as we don't have a number of high-impact data releases to look forward. The pair closed below 20Wsma.
The pair reached a large distribution territory between 1.1467 and 1.1437. In the daily chart, the pair lost all moving averages. The nearest support is found at 1.0785. We advised selling on rises with a target at 1.0720. The 20Wsma is seen at 1.1080. In different time intervals (hourly and daily charts), the oscillators indicate oversold levels.
The pair has been reaching lower lows and lower highs, falling below the lower end of the ascending trendline. We recommend fresh selling only below 1.0780 with an initial target at 1.0720 and extending towards 1.0630 later.
Intraday resistance is seen at 1.0840, 1.0870, and 1.0910. Support is found at 1.0790, 1.0750, and 1.0720.
Weekly resistance is seen at 1.0920, 1.0960, and 1.0980. Support is found at 1.0790, 1.0720, and 1.0650.
Monthly support is found at 1.0730.


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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for July 22, 2015


USD/JPY is expected to consolidate with bullish bias. USD/JPY is underpinned by the positive dollar sentiment (ICE spot dollar index last 97.96 versus 97.66 early Friday) on a larger-than-expected 9.8% on-month increase in the US June housing starts (versus forecast +7.1%), while +0.3% US June CPI (matching forecast) bolstered expectations that the Federal Reserve will begin tightening its policy this year. USD/JPY is also supported by the Bank of Japan's ultra-loose monetary policy, reduced safe-haven appeal of the yen as investor risk aversion recedes (VIX fear gauge eased 1.32% to 11.95; S&P 500 closed up 0.11% at 2,126.64 Friday) amid easing concerns about Greece and signs of stabilization in China stock markets. But USD sentiment is dented by the weaker-than-expected US July preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment index of 93.3 (versus forecast 95.5). USD/JPY upside is also limited by the profit-taking on short JPY positions and buy-yen orders from Japan's exporters. Technical comment: The daily chart is still positive-biased as the MACD and stochastics are bullish, although the latter one is at overbought levels. Five-day moving average is above 15-day moving average and is advancing. Trading recommendations: The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a wider range as long as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price holds above its pivot point, long positions are recommended with the first target at 124.35 and the second target at 124.60. In the alternative scenario, short positions are recommended with the first target at 123.70 if the price moves below its pivot points. A break of this target is likely to push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 123.35. The pivot point is at 123.90.


Resistance levels: 124.35 124.60 124.90
Support levels: 123.70 123.35 123


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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for July 27, 2015





When the European market opens, economic news Private Loans y/y, M3 Money Supply y/y, German Ifo Business Climate, and German Import Prices m/m is due. The US will release data about Durable Goods Orders m/m and Core Durable Goods Orders m/m. So amid the reports, EUR/USD will move low to medium volatility during this day.


TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:
Breakout BUY Level: 1.1025.
Strong Resistance:1.1019.
Original Resistance: 1.1008.
Inner Sell Area: 1.1997.
Target Inner Area: 1.0972.
Inner Buy Area: 1.0947.
Original Support: 1.0936.
Strong Support: 1.0925.
Breakout SELL Level: 1.0919.


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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for July 28, 2015


On the daily chart, GBP/USD is trading slightly bullish, but it is still ins the zone around the 200 SMA. We should expect a rally towards the resistance zone of 1.5640 and also, a higher continuation towards new highs. However, if a pullback take place at currentl evels, it would be expected to test the support zone of 1.5450.





GBP/USD found a strong bottom around the level of 1.5502 and now it is trading above the 200 SMA on the H1 chart. There is a resistance level of 1.5568 still to be broken during this bullish road, but eventually, the pair could trade higher again in order to reach new highs. We should expect a bullish consolidation for the mid-term when GBP/USD moves above that moving average again.





Daily chart's resistance levels: 1.5543 / 1.5640
Daily chart's support levels: 1.5450 / 1.5332
H1 chart's resistance levels: 1.5568 / 1.5594
H1 chart's support levels: 1.5524 / 1.5502


Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 1.5568, take profit is at 1.5594, and stop loss is at 1.5542.


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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for July 30, 2015





When the European market opens, economic data on the Italian 10-y Bond Auction, ECB Economic Bulletin, German Unemployment Change, Spanish Flash GDP q/q, Spanish Flash CPI y/y, and German Prelim CPI m/m is due. The US will publish data on Natural Gas Storage, Advance GDP Price Index q/q, Unemployment Claims, and Advance GDP q/q. So amid the reports, EUR/USD will move low to medium volatility during this day.


TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:
Breakout BUY Level: 1.1034.
Strong Resistance:1.1028.
Original Resistance: 1.1017.
Inner Sell Area: 1.1006.
Target Inner Area: 1.0981.
Inner Buy Area: 1.0966.
Original Support: 1.0945.
Strong Support: 1.0936.
Breakout SELL Level: 1.0929.


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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for August 03, 2015





In Asia, Japan will release data on the Final Manufacturing PMI. The US will publish economic news about Vehicle Sales, ISM Manufacturing Prices, Construction Spending m/m, ISM Manufacturing PMI, Final Manufacturing PMI, Personal Income m/m, ersonal Spending m/m, and Core PCE Price Index m/m. So, there is a strong probability that USD/JPY will move with low to medium volatility during the day.


TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:
Resistance. 3: 124.61.
Resistance. 2: 124.36.
Resistance. 1: 124.12.
Support. 1: 123.83.
Support. 2: 123.58.
Support. 3: 123.34.


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