Thread: InstaForex Wave Analysis

Technical analysis of NZD/USD for March 27, 2015






Overview: The NZD/USD pair is likely to continue straight from 0.7515. Support at 0.7515 coincides with ratio of 00% Fibonacci retracement level in the H1 chart. Additionally, it is probably going to form a double bottom at the same level. Therefore, the kiwi shows signs of strength following the break through the highest levels of 0.7515 and 0.7550. So, it is going to be a good sign to buy above the support levels of 0.7515 and 0.7550 with the first target at 0.7603 in order to retest a weekly pivot point and further 0.9636 (it will act as strong resistance, it is going to be a good place to take profit, it also should be noted that the level to take profit will coincide at 88.2% of Fibonacci at the same time frame). It should be noted that another resistance is set at the level of 0.7696, which represents the double bottom. However, in case a reversal takes place and the NZD/USD pair breaks through the support level at 0.7550, the market will be led to further decline to 0.7466 in order to indicate the bearish market on March 27, 2015.


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Euro Area Is Gaining Momentum



Recent euro-area data releases have consistently surprised to the upside, adding to evidence that the region's recovery is gaining momentum, according to Standard Chartered research notes. Consumption and net exports are likely to be driving growth in Q1, when GDP growth could reach as high as 0.5% q/q, and the conditions are in place for a sustained investment improvement after a prolonged downturn. The euro-area PMI composite has risen to 54.1 in March, the highest since May 2011. France and Italy remain the weakest major economies, but there are bright spots in both countries, with GDP growth likely to pick up from a dismal Q4-2014 in both cases. Meanwhile, Germany is off to a strong start and is likely to pull along some of its smaller neighbours. German companies are benefitting from a more competitive euro, and across the euro area growth of new orders for goods exports has hit an eight-month high, according to Markit. Consumption is also strengthening. Euro-area retail sales were up 3.7% y/y in January, the strongest annual increase since 2005. Consumer confidence is at the highest level since 2007 on the back of higher real disposable incomes, due to stronger earnings growth, the lower oil price and generally low inflation. Meanwhile Germany's labour market is strong, and immigration and a higher minimum wage should boost consumer spending. Across the euro area unemployment is falling, albeit from high levels in some countries. Bank lending data also point to a more supportive growth environment. The downtrend of loans to non-financial corporations (adjusted for sales and securitisation) eased further, reaching -0.4% y/y in February. Standard Chartered research forecasts that "this trend will continue and we will very soon see positive y/y growth in loans to corporations. Loans to households, which usually recover earlier than loans to corporations, were up 1% y/y in February, continuing the uptrend that begun around the middle of 2014. Moreover, the third targeted long-term refinancing operation (TLTRO) take-up was strong at EUR 97bn, a signal that banks expect demand for loans to pick up. TLTRO loans are particularly helpful for banks in the periphery." Greece, which was one of the best performers in 2014, has deteriorated very fast due to political uncertainty. The key risk for the euro area's recovery remains a sentiment deterioration, either over Greece or eastern Ukraine. Ongoing reform discussions with Greece are reaching a critical stage, with Athens due to run out of money over the next month unless bailout funds are released. In Ukraine, tensions have deescalated since the truce, but the situation remains sensitive

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for March 30 - 2015






Technical summary We are still looking for a close above the resistance line on the 4-hourly chart to confirm that a series of wave three is developing for a rally towards at least 1.4595. In the short term, a break above minor resistance at 1.4397 is going to be the first indication that resistance at 1.4495 is likely to be challenged again and a break above here should bring an acceleration higher than we are looking for. Only an unexpected break below support at 1.4287 will confuse the overall bullish picture.


Trading recommendation: We are long EUR from 1.4335 and will place our stop at 1.4275


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Daily analysis of USDX for April 06, 2015






The daily chart continues to show us a corrective phase of the USDX, as the index continues to move in favor of the bearish side but a corrective one as we mentioned above. The next floor or support zone is located at the level of 96.60, where we could expect a rebound to the resistance zone around 98.01. By the way, the bullish outlook is still alive. The USDX started this week with a deep bearish gap, which is now looking for support at the level of 96.54, more than 100 pips of empty zone. Now, the nearest resistance level is located around 97.08, where the USDX could begin to form a bullish pattern in order to reach the 200 SMA on the H1 chart. But the Index is still with the downside risk in the short term.


Daily chart's resistance levels: 98.01 / 99.12
Dailychart's support levels: 96.60 / 95.19
H1 chart's resistance levels: 97.08 / 97.30
H1 chart's support levels: 96.54 / 96.25


Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 97.08, take profit is at 97.30, and stop loss is at 96.85.


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Technical analysis of Silver for April 07, 2015






Technical outlook and chart setups:
Silver has dropped below the level of $17.00 as we discussed and expected earlier. The metal could still be unfolding its counter trend correction and push lower towards $16.00 before resuming rally. It is recommended to remain short with risk at the levels $17.50/60. A drop below $16.60 from here is likely to confirm the same. Immediate support is seen at $16.50/60 followed by $15.80 and lower, while resistance is seen at $17.40/50 followed by $17.80/85 and higher respectively. Bears are expected to remain in control untill prices stay below $17.40/50.


Trading recommendations:
Remain short, stop at $17.50/60, target $16.00.


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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for April 08, 2015




Technical outlook and chart setups: The EUR/JPY pair is seen to be supported well around the level of 130.00 for now. The pair is seen to initiate/resume rally higher, and a break above 131.50 is likely to encourage bulls to go forward. It is hence recommended to initiate 50% positions now with risk at 128.50. Immediate support is seen at 128.50 followed by 128.00, 127.00, and lower, while resistance is seen at 131.50 followed by 133.00 and higher respectively. Bulls shall look to remain in control untill prices stay above 128.50.


Trading recommendations: Initiate 50% long positions, stop at 128.50, target is open.



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Technical analysis and trading recommendation for Gold for April 10, 2015






The yellow metal has been extending its losses for three consecutive days. The US dollar rebounded from the lower levels, which dampened the momentum of the metal. After the FOMC minutes, the metal broke the 50Dsma and closed below that. At the FOMC meeting, several participants judged that economic data and outlook were likely to warrant normalization. However, others anticipated that the effects of lower energy prices and the depressed dollar would continue to weigh on inflation in the near term, suggesting that conditions are unlikely to be appropriate for rates hike until later in the year. A couple of participants suggested that the economic outlook would not call for any increase until 2016. Eventually, the interest rate hike is imminent, but the matter is when it comes true. The interest rate hike has a negative influence on the metal. Today, the metal successfully held the previous day's low at the Asian session. Prices are consolidating at $1,192.00 for a day. Below this, 20Dsma is likely to appear at $1,187.00. The trend-change decider level is found at $1,178.00. In case of a daily close below $1,178.00, the current upswing will be cancelled. Intraday support is found at $1,192.00. We recommend selling below $1,192.00 with immediate target at $1,188.00, below $1,187.00 we can expect $1,180.00 and $1,178.00. The panic is going to be triggered below $1,178.00. In the H4 chart, the price fell below the ascending trend line and closed below that. In the hourly chart, we can observe lower highs and lower lows formation. Until the price closes below $1,206.00, the near term favors bears. Trade: Selling below $1,192.00 targets $1,188.00, $1,180.00 and $1,179.00


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Daily analysis of the USDX






There is a huge bullish momentum in place on the daily chart, because the USDX is back above the support level of 99.12 now, prepearing for a rally towards the resistance level at 100.51, which is an important one in this time frame. Bulls are strong and we recomment to find bullish patterns at lower time frames to ride this trend.
At the H1 chart, the USDX did an interesting bullish move after two higher high patterns formed on the way. Now, the Index is looking to consolidate above the resistance level of 99.55, in order to reach the psycological level of 100.00 in the nearest term. Also, this view is supported by the current position of the 200 SMA, which is bullish.


Daily chart's resistance levels: 100.51 / 101.95
Dailychart's support levels: 99.12 / 97.83
H1 chart's resistance levels: 97.75 / 98.00
H1 chart's support levels: 97.30 / 97.08


Trading recommendations for today:
Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 100.51, take profit is at 101.95, and stop loss is at 99.00.


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Daily analysis of major pairs for April 13, 2015





EUR/USD: This pair is very weak right now, owing to a deep weakness in EUR and a great strength of USD. In fact, EUR is one of the weakest currencies among the majors and so are most EUR pairs. A rally of 400 pips is significant enough to result in a clean Bearish Confirmation Pattern and further plunge is expected this week.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for April 14, 2015






In Asia, Japan is not expected to release any economic data. But the US will publish data on Business Inventories m/m, NFIB Small Business Index, Core PPI m/m, Retail Sales m/m, PPI m/m, and Core Retail Sales m/m. So, there is a strong probability that the USD/JPY pair will move with low to medium volatility during the day.


TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:
Resistance. 3: 120.51.
Resistance. 2: 120.28.
Resistance. 1: 120.04.
Support. 1: 119.76.
Support. 2: 119.52.
Support. 3: 119.28.




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