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Forex Forecast for EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY and USDCHF for 24 – 28 October 2016
First, a review of last week’s forecast:

– predicting the future of EUR/USD, most experts (60%), backed by 100% of indicators on H4 and D1, expected the pair to go down to the lows of February-March - 1.0800-1.0825. It was just a question of time this process would take. The level of 1.0900 was indicated as the short-term support. Indeed, that support was a short-term one, and the pair got over it on Friday easily, than having declined to the level of 1.0860. It was followed by a small rebound, and the pair ended the week at the level of
1.0885;

– as a reminder, giving the forecast for GBP/USD 70% of analysts, backed by the graphical analysis on H4, reckoned that in the near future the pair would not fall below the level of 1.2100 and it would move in a sideways channel of 1.2100-1.2330. That forecast was 100% fulfilled. The low of the week was recorded at the level of 1.2135 on Monday. Several attempts the pair made on Tuesday and Wednesday to break through the resistance failed, and it wrapped up the week almost in the middle of the specified side channel - at the level of 1.2230;

– USD/JPY. Here, the graphical analysis provided the most accurate forecast, it predicted that the pair would go down and transit to the sideways trend within 102.80–104.30. Indeed, the pair started declining since the very first moment of opening of the week session and during all five days it kept within the side channel within 103.16–104.35;

– USD/CHF pair continues moving insistently towards its main target – the high of 1.0100. With this, last week the part of analysts reckoned that the pair was in for a temporary rebound. But 40%of them were adamant that before going down it should reach the mark of 0.9950 for sure. The pair not only met the target, but also beat it a little bit, moving up to the level of 0.9962 within a week.

***
Forecast for the Upcoming Week:
Summing up the opinions of several dozen analysts from world leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be suggested:

– talking about the future of EUR/USD 70% of experts reckon that the pair will continue its declining at least to the level of 1.0800. 100% of indicators on H4 and D1 agree with this scenario. The decline can be even greater if forecast on state of economy of the USA will be proved true. Some readings for September will be announced on Thursday, October 27, and annual data on GDP – on Friday, October 28. The analysts expect them to be rather positive for US dollar, which can drop the pair further. As a reminder, last year the pair fell below the level of 1.0500 repeatedly. Around 30% of experts and the graphical analysis on H4, which draws in first a sideways movement of the pair within 1.0855–1.0915 and then upswing to the level of 1.0960, hold an alternative view. The next resistance will be at 1.1100;

– GBP/USD. Here, around 80% of analysts, backed by 70% of indicators, reckon that in the near future the pair will start declining first to the level of 1.2100, and then – to 1.2000. As for the graphical analysis, according to its readings early week the pair will keep within 1.2135–1.2300 for some time, and then its volatility will increase up to 1.2000–1.2430. The governor of the Bank of England, Mark Carney, and president of the ECB, Mario Draghi, will speak on Tuesday, their speeches can influence forming of a new trend, as well as the aforesaid data on the US economy. It should be noted that in a longer term opinion of analysts is changing, and over 55% of them expect the pair to rise to the area of 1.2800–1.3000 by the New Year;

– USD/JPY. For the fourth week in a row the opinions of experts in respect of the future of this pair split almost equally: 40% vote for its rise, 40% - for its fall, 20% - for a sideways trend with the pivot point of 103.45. If we add readings of 70% of indicators and the graphical analysis to this variety of opinions, in the near future we can expect the pair to upswing first to the level of 105.00, and then fall to the support in the area of 103.20. The next support will be at 102.80. Coming back to the opinions of the experts, it may be noted that in the medium term already 65% of them reckon that the pair will surely reach the high of 105.00;

– as for the forecast for USD/CHF, here everything is unchanged: around 60% of analysts, 90% of indicators and the graphical analysis on H4 vote for another breakthrough of the pair to the north – this time to the high of 1.0000, and then bouncing off to the area of 0.9700-0.9800. The remaining 40% of experts believe that the pair will reverse southwards, failing to reach this benchmark level. The nearest support levels will be at 0.9855 and 0.9820, then – at 0.9765 and 0.9695

Roman Butko, NordFX

Notice: These materials should not be deemed as a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets and they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and it can lead to loss of money deposited.

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Forex Forecast for EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY and USDCHF for October 31 – November 4, 2016
First, a review of last week’s forecast:

– giving forecast for EUR/USD, those 30% of experts, having suggested a possible rise of the pair, turned out to be right. As a reminder, such scenario was also backed by the graphical analysis, according to it a sideways movement of the pair within 1.0855–1.0915 should change to the upswing to the level of 1.0960. The level of 1.1100 was indicated as the next resistance level. Practically, that was exactly what happened: early in the week the pair was moving eastwards within the predetermined range, and then it went up, and toward the very end of the week it surged upward striving to reach the high of 1.1000. However, it failed to reach it, and it wrapped up the week 25 points above the first resistance level – at the level of 0.0985;

– GBP/USD. Here 80% of analysts reckoned that in the near future the pair would start declining first to the level of 1.2100, and then – to 1.2000. This happened on Tuesday, October 25, ahead of the speeches of the governor of the Bank of England, Mark Carney, and the president of the ECB, Mario Draghi. Just within 3 hours the pair lost almost 160 points and reached the bottom at the level of 1.2082, and then – in a similar rapid manner – it regained almost all losses, wrapping up the week around the one of the strongest October levels of support/resistance – at 1.2185;

– the forecast for USD/JPY could be reduced to two trends – first the pair’s rise to the level of 105.00, and then its declining to the support in the area of 103.20. Indeed, starting from Monday the pair went up and as early as Thursday it reached that high. On Friday it went up further 50 points, following which the bulls took well-deserved rest, and the bears, meeting almost no resistance, immediately pushed the pair 100 points down;

– as for the forecast for USD/CHF, the majority of analysts, indicators and the graphical analysis by common consent voted for another breakthrough of the pair to the north – up to the high of 1.0000, and then – rebound to the area of 0.9700-0.9800. The level of 0.9855 was indicated as the next support level. The forecast was if not 100%, then at least 99.98% accurately fulfilled, because the pair reached that very high of 0.9998 on Tuesday, October 25. The promised rebound also occurred – and exactly to the specified support as well. The pair ended the week at the level of 0.9875.

***
Forecast for the Upcoming Week:
Summing up the opinions of several dozen analysts from world leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be suggested:

– notwithstanding last week’s rise of the pair, 70% of experts continue to insist that the pair should anyway go down at least to the level of 1.0800. As for the indicators on H4 and D1, they have taken a neutral stance. However, the graphical analysis on H4 reckons that the pair, having moved down to the level of 1.0900, will reverse again to the north and will move towards the resistance of 1.1100. Around 30% of analysts agree to this scenario. At the same time, we should keep in mind that the upcoming week is busy in terms of significant economic events, including release of the United States Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision on Wednesday, November 2, and release of Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) on Friday, November 4. The upcoming USA presidential elections, scheduled for November 8, should also be taken into account. All these events can lead to great exchange rate fluctuations, which is fraught with not only large profit but also huge risks for traders;

– next week not only the US Fed, but also the Bank of England will announce its Interest Rate Decision (Thursday, November 3), however, the analysts don’t expect any surprises from it. As for their opinion on GBP/USD, around 70% of them point to the south, predicting the fall of the pair to the level of 1.2000, and maybe even 100 points lower. The indicators and the graphical analysis on D1 fully concur with this opinion. However, the latter deems it possible that before going down the pair can rise to the resistance of 1.2250. The next resistance will be at 1.2330.

– USD/JPY. For a fifth week in a row the experts have no consensus on the future of this pair: 45% vote for the pair’s rise to the area of 105.50–106.00, 25% - for its fall to the support of 102.80 and 30% - for a sideways trend. As for the indicators and the graphical analysis, they reckon that the pair will try to re-approach the resistance of 105.50, and then will literally nosedive – first to the support of 104.00, and then even lower – to the area of 102.40–102.80. But, as with both foregoing cases, here you should keep in mind the significant news from the USA, and also release of the Interest Rate Decisions of the Bank of Japan on Tuesday, November 1;

– as for the forecast for USD/CHF, around 70% of analysts believe that the pair should definitely return to the level of 1. 0000.The remaining 30% reckon that it hasn’t finished its temporary decline to the area of 0.9700–0.9800. The graphical analysis on H4, which believes that the decline can be even greater, also agrees with this scenario, and the pair will reach the bottom at the level of 0.9680. There is also a third opinion, according to which, due to the events mentioned above, in the near future the pair will just mirror EUR/USD acting, a negative correlation with which is most noticeable during the periods of heightened volatility.


Roman Butko, NordFX

Notice: These materials should not be deemed as a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets and they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and it can lead to loss of money deposited.


#forex #forex_forecast #eurusd #signals_forex #binary_options
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X DAY - Tuesday, November 8, 2016
JP Morgan analysts believe that the dollar will weaken regardless of the US electoral outcome. In the event of Trump's victory, NordFX analysts forecast that its fall may reach 10-15%. If, on the other hand, Hillary Clinton wins, the fluctuation of all indicators may reach ± ​​5%.
The upcoming presidential election on November 8 could significantly change the situation in the US economy and consequently lead to major fluctuations of the dollar against other world currencies. The electoral platforms of the two major candidates for the US presidency, Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump, promise major changes in trade policies, according to Bloomberg. To add to this, according to analysts from JP Morgan Chase (one of the largest brokers) a victory of any of these candidates may result at the very least in increased tension between Washington and its partners, if not in outright trade wars. This carries the risk of a reorientation of investors from the dollar to other currencies.
A similar view is shared by Deutsche Bank, as well as HSBC and Credit Suisse. According to one of the leading strategists of the Credit Suisse New York branch, S. Jalinoos, the dollar should start cheapening right after the election.
A statement on USDJPY has been made by Bank of America Merrill Lynch experts as well, who expect that the election of Donald Trump will cause the dollar to fall in price relative to the appreciation of the Japanese currency.
The situation for GBPUSD is more complicated: on the one hand, there are disturbances associated with the UK exit from the EU, and on the other there is an equally large dose of uncertainty associated with the presidential election in the United States. Morgan Stanley Research believe that the dollar may well give way to the pound and that the pair will go up.
"We are certain to have trade conflicts under the next president,” says John Normand of JP Morgan. “These will be major in the case of Trump's victory and moderate in the case of Clinton’s." The same opinion is shared by analysts of the international brokerage company NordFX. In their view, if Donald Trump becomes US president the dollar could fall against the euro by an excess of 1000 points.
"If Hillary Clinton wins,” says NordFX chief analyst John Gordon, “volatility is likely to be smaller and will not exceed ± 5%. But these five percent for the EURUSD will make about 500 points.”
“Let's take a look at what usually happens after elections,” continues John Gordon. “In 2000, the Republican George W. Bush won, resulting in the dollar going into a sharp nosedive and losing about 5,300 points against the euro over the course of the year. The next election took place in 2004, and Bush won again. It would seem that nothing should have changed but, on the contrary, the pair made a U-turn inspired by his new electoral campaign promises, and it only took two months for the US currency to rise by 2000 points. In the 2008 election, Democrat Barack Obama became President, which resulted in the trend changing again: the dollar dropped more than 2350 points in six weeks. The Obama re-election in 2012 brought one more turn and a bounce upwards of 1050 points in less than three months.”
“And note,” stresses the NordFX expert, “a bounce always takes place, regardless of who wins - the Republicans or the Democrats. I am confident that this election will not be an exception. Most likely, the post-election trend, as before, will last for 2-3 months - as long as investors do not completely figure out which of the electoral promises of the new President will be met, and which will merely remain words on paper. This is a very good period for traders, allowing one to earn good money.
At this moment, we can expect a powerful movement of not only currencies rates, but also of stock market indices and of US company shares, and these movements will begin almost immediately as soon as the first preliminary results of the vote count are made public. In this situation, traders should allocate their financial assets very wisely and should be alert, so as not to miss the utilise 100% of these new trade opportunities."

Forex Forecast for EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY and USDCHF for November 07 - 11, 2016

First, a review of last week’s forecast:
- Giving our forecast for EUR/USD, we warned that it will be the political rather than economic situation that would determine all dollar pair trends in the run up to the presidential elections in the United States. That is what has been happening. Any shift of the American electorate in favour of Donald Trump played against the dollar. As a result, surprisingly, the most accurate forecast was given not by experts, but... by graphical analysis, which predicted the growth of the pair to the resistance level of 1.1100, which was reached on Wednesday, November 2. Then, turning this resistance into a Pivot level, the pair moved to a sideways trend and finished the week at 1.1140;
- GBP/USD. The situation with this pair proved to be similar to what happened to EUR/USD. In this case an additional bullish hand was played by the UK High Court ruling, which said that Prime Minister Theresa May cannot start the process of the UK leaving the EU without a vote in Parliament. As a result, the pair broke all expected resistance levels and rose to the level of 1.2517;
- With regard to the forecast for USD/JPY, technical analysis also proved to be as accurate as can realistically be expected. As a reminder, indicator and graphical analysis suggested that the pair would again try to move closer to the resistance level of 105.50, after which it would literally collapse - first to the support level of 104.00 and then even lower - to the 102.40-102.80 zone. If we look at the chart, we see that this prediction came true by almost 100% - the pair started Monday by moving northwards, but after reaching 105.22 it turned around. On Tuesday it flew down, slowed down for a few hours in the 104.00 area and reached its low point at the level of 102.54 on Thursday. Then, after a small correction, the pair settled down and moved to a sideways trend, moving in the 102.82-103.35 channel;
- Graphical analysis turned out to be 100% correct in its forecast for USD/CHF as well. It clearly pointed out that the pair would reach the bottom at the level of 0.9680: at the end of the week-long session it obediently stopped with this precise value being displayed on the monitor.
***
Forecast for the Upcoming week:
Summing up the opinions of several dozen analysts from world leading banks and brokerage companies as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be suggested:
- In anticipation of the upcoming Presidential election in the United States on Tuesday November 8, it is a fruitless task to make any forecasts on dollar pairs. That is why more than 60% of the experts just shrug when speaking about the near future of EUR/USD. As for the indicators, they almost unanimously insist on the growth of the pair in agreement with those analysts who predict a fall of the dollar by more than 1000 points in the event Donald Trump wins the election. But, judging by the fact that 85% of experts suggest growth of the dollar in the medium-term, they are inclined to believe that Hillary Clinton will be elected new US President. In this case, according to them, the pair can go down about 500 points and reach the mark of 1.0600;
- The opinion of analysts on the future of GBP/USD is also quite vague. About 50% of them, together with indicators, look to the north, 35% look to the south and the remaining 15%, supported by graphical analysis on D1, look to the east. It is worth mentioning that there is no consensus in the medium term either – a certain clarity will only emerge following the results of the American election. However, there may be serious corrections of trends depending on the situation with the UK exit from the European Union;
- USD/JPY. The experts are split in their forecast exactly halfway, with one half of them expecting growth and the other a fall. The reasons for this are clear and have been described above. As for a longer term forecast, almost 70% of analysts believe the dollar will strengthen and the pair will grow at least to the 106.00-107.00 zone;
- And finally the last pair of our review - USD/CHF. Here the opinion of the experts is almost unanimous: more than 90% of them believe that the pair will certainly go back to 1.0000-1.0100 marks. Graphical analysis agrees with this opinion as well, naming 0.9820 as the first target.
In conclusion, let me mention the opinion of NordFX senior analyst John Gordon. "Analysis of previous presidential elections in the United States shows,” stresses the NordFX expert, “that a bounce always takes place, regardless of who wins, be it the Republicans or the Democrats. Most likely, the post-election trend, as before, will last for 2-3 months, ie for as long as investors take to figure out which out which of their electoral promises the new President will fulfil and which will merely remain words on paper. This is a very good period for traders, giving one the opportunity to earn good money. In this situation, traders should manage their financial assets very wisely and should remain alert, so as not to miss the chance to utilise 100% of these new trade opportunities."
Roman Butko, NordFX
Notice: These materials should not be deemed as a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets - they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and it can lead to loss of money deposited.
#forex #forex_forecast #eurusd #signals_forex #binary_options
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Forex Forecast for EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY and USDCHF for November 14 - 18, 2016

First, a review of last week’s forecast:
- In anticipation of the US Presidential election, most experts simply refused to make any predictions on USD pairs. However, in the medium-term forecast, expecting the victory of Hillary Clinton 85% of experts predicted growth in the dollar and a decline of the EUR/USD pair. As a reminder, during the entire second half of October, forecasts were based on the pair's progress to the level of 1.0800. Come November 8, Donald Trump becomes President of the United States and the pair quickly climbed 300 points to the level of 1.1300. Then, as if his rival won the election, it collapsed just as quickly, reaching the trough at 1.0830 on Friday;
- Similar forecasts and uncertainty were observed with respect to GBP/USD as well. As a result, in spite of the American election, the pair managed to hold out in the corridor of 1.2350-1.2550 for most of the week. Only at the end of the week, having broken through the upper boundary of the channel, it went on northward. As a result, whilst the election led to the dollar strengthening against the euro, it also led to it surrendering to the British pound;
- USD/JPY. Speaking about the future of this pair, 70% of analysts predicted growth of the pair to the 106.00-107.00 zone, which is what happened: it is in this range that the pair finished this hectic week;
- More than 90% of the experts believed that the USD/CHF pair should certainly go back to 1.0000-1.0100 marks. Graphical analysis agreed with this opinion as well, naming 0.9820 as the first target. This forecast can also be considered fulfilled: having survived the first shock of Trump's election, the pair returned to the set trend, reaching the resistance of 0.9820 by Thursday. It then broke through it to approach the level of 0.9900.
***
Forecast for the upcoming week:
Summing up the opinions of several dozen analysts from world leading banks and brokerage companies as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can suggest the following:
- It is clear that all indicators on H4 and D1 are looking southwards when predicting the future of EUR/USD. But most experts have an opposite opinion: about 70% of them believe that the pair should return to the level of 1.1000. Graphical analysis found a compromise between the computer and the human mind - it indicates an initial fall of the pair to the level of 1.0800, followed by a rise to 1.1055. After that, according to its forecast, the pair will go down again to the support level of 1.0850. As for analysts, when giving their medium-term forecast 70% of them named the zone of 1.0600-1.0750 as the trough;
- Analysts are split exactly halfway on the future of GBP/USD. 50% of them, in full agreement with the indicators, say that the pair will target the 1.3000 mark. The other half expects it to descend to the support in the area of ​​1.2380. As for the readings of graphical analysis, they suggest that the pair has reached its local maximum and is now expected to fall. The support levels are 1.2380 and 1.2150;
- Experts expect a decline for the pair USD/JPY as well. According to the vast majority of them (90%), the pair should go down to the zone of 104.00-104.50. However, developments of the political situation in the United States and the statements of the new President Elect will certainly influence local trends;
- And finally, the last pair of our review: USD/CHF. This time, experts have shown a striking unanimity - 100% of them have pointed to the north, calling the height of 0.9950 the immediate goal. However, graphical analysis on H4 says that before starting to climb, the pair may stay in the side channel 0.9810-0.9910 for some time.
Roman Butko, NordFX
Notice: These materials should not be considered a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets as they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and it can lead to loss of money deposited.
#forex #forex_forecast #eurusd #signals_forex #binary_options
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Forex Forecast for EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY and USDCHF for November 21-25, 2016.

First, a review of last week’s forecast:

- It is clear that the dynamics of the dollar exchange rates are now largely determined by the actions of the US President-Elect Donald Trump, which have thus far been driving a continuing strengthening of the American currency. As a reminder, in the medium term forecast the vast majority of experts (70%) predicted a decline in the EUR/USD pair to the area of 1.0600-1.0750. However, the reality has surpassed all expectations as the pair had already managed to reach these values by last week, stopping at around 1.0588 on Friday night;

- Regarding the forecast for GBP/USD, 50% of analysts with the support of graphical analysis thought that the pair had reached its local maximum at 1.2670. They therefore expected it to fall at the very least to the support level of 1.2380, or even lower. That was what happened: last week, the pair, having lost more than 300 points, reached its bottom at around 1.2300;

- USD/JPY: citing the opinion of experts about a possible decline of the pair to the 104.00-104.50 area, we immediately qualified the statement by saying that, as with the previous cases, the trend direction here would depend on what the future US President would say and do. As a result, contrary to the forecasts of analysts, the dollar managed to significantly strengthen against the yen - by the end of the week the pair was ready to take the height of 111.00. However, it never actually managed to complete this ascent, ending the session at 110.90;

- For several months, experts expected the return of USD/CHF to the 1.0000-1.0100 range. This opinion was almost unanimous: 90% to 100% of analysts agreed with this forecast, and it was finally realised this week: on Monday the pair reached the landmark 1.0000 level, turning it into a Pivot Point for three days before rushing upwards. It ended the week in the 1.0100 area.

***
Forecast for the upcoming week:
Summing up the opinions of several dozen analysts from world leading banks and brokerage companies as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can suggest the following:

- It is clear that all indicators on H4 and D1 are looking southwards when predicting the future of EUR/USD. At the same time, however, more than half of the oscillators indicate the overselling of the pair, which could imply a possible correction. 40% of experts and graphical analysis on H4 agree with this. They believe that before it continues to fall, the pair may first rise to the 1.0700-1.0800 area. As for the local low point, the most commonly cited level is the 2015 low of 1.0450. However, about 15% of analysts remark that we cannot exclude the possibility of full parity within the next few months (i.e. that the pair would settle at the 1.0000 mark);

- Similarly to the case of EUR/USD, the indicators predict a decline of the GBP/USD pair, with a quarter of them indicating an overselling. Experts also cannot agree in their forecasts: 40% of them maintain that the pair will fall, 40% think it will grow, and the remaining 20% foresee a sideways trend. If we add the indications of graphical analysis on H4 to the above, we can presume that the pair will potentially move laterally for a short while within the 1.2270-1.2440 channel, with the Pivot level being 1.2330. In the long-term, however, a majority of 60% of analysts predict that the pair will fall, naming 1.2100 and 1.1940 as support levels;

- USD/JPY: Despite last week's steady growth, almost 60% of experts continue to expect a decline of the pair, naming 107.50 and 105.50 as target levels. The observation that the pair has been overbought, as almost a third of the oscillators suggest, makes it possible to talk about a trend reversal. However, graphical analysis tells us that the pair may spend some time moving sideways within the boundaries of 108.55-112.00, having a Pivot level of 110.00;

- After USD/CHF reached its long-sought target of 1.0000-1.0100, the indicators started showing that this pair was overbought as well, suggesting, therefore, that it can be expected to fall to the level of 0.9900. The main resistance in this case is located at the level of 1.0135. 45% of experts and graphical analysis on H4 agree with this judgement. As for the remaining analysts, they hold the belief that the dollar's potential is far from exhausted: we should expect it to continue strengthening and striving to the heights of January 2016, which are located in the 1.0260 area.

Roman Butko, NordFX

Note: These materials should not be deemed as a recommendation for particular investments or as guidance for working on financial markets as they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to loss of money deposited.
#forex #forex_forecast #eurusd #signals_forex #binary_options
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Forex forecast for EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY and USDCHF 28 November - 02 December 2016.

First, a review of last week’s forecast:

- As a reminder, last week more than half of oscillators indicated the overselling of the EUR/USD pair, which gave a reason to talk about a temporary pause in the pair’s southward movement. And so it happened. However, this can hardly be called a correction. It will be more precise to talk about a transition to a sideways trend with a Pivot Point of 1.0585. The pair has not yet been able to reach its goal, the minimum of 2015 at 1.0450, and has finished the week in the same place where it began: in the area of the Pivot level;

- With regard to the forecast for GBP/USD, 40% of analysts were in favour of the pair’s growth, whilst 20% favoured a sideways channel. Graphical analysis indicated the levels of 1.2270 and 1.2440 as boundaries of such a channel. The pair has indeed failed to cross the lower boundary and on Monday leapt upwards by 200 points, turning the level of 1.2440 into a Pivot Point. It moved along it for all four remaining days;

- However, USD/JPY has surely disappointed those 60% experts who had expected its decline. It moved sideways until mid-Wednesday, fluctuating slightly, almost as if it was wondering what direction to choose. The news that came from the US dispelled its doubts, and the pair went up sharply, rising by nearly 300 points. In total, over the past three weeks, the yen lost more than 1000 points to the dollar;

- USD/CHF: the experts' opinions diverged regarding the behaviour of this pair: 55% voted in favour of its growth, 45% voted for its fall. As a result, as is often the case, the pair mirrored the behaviour of EUR/USD, having returned to Monday’s values ​​on Friday.

***
Forecast for the upcoming week:
Summing up the opinions of several dozen analysts from world leading banks and brokerage companies, as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be suggested:

- In their forecast for EUR/USD, all the indicators split themselves into two groups: the predictions on H4 foretell a sideways trend, whilst D1 clearly indicates a southward one. The opinion of the latter is supported by the vast majority (70%) of analysts, who identify the levels of 1.0500 and 1.0460 as potential support levels. The remaining 30% of experts believe that the pair will still rebound up to the 1.0650-1.0700 area. A compromise solution is offered by graphical analysis which draws a sideways channel with a quite wide range of 1.0500-1.0720. It should be kept in mind that on Friday 2 December the US employment data change (NFP) will be published, which is usually accompanied by significant dollar pairs spikes;

- Forecasts for GBP/USD suggest a lateral movement of this pair with a predominance of bullish trend. Such statements are based both on the readings of the indicators (65% are for growth, 35% have taken a neutral position), and on the opinion of analysts (35% are for growth, 35% predict a decline, 30% remain neutral). As for graphical analysis on D1, it suggests that the pair has reached its local maximum, and is now expected to decline first to the level of 1.2070, and then even lower to the support of 1.1945. The nearest resistance is in 1.2495-1.2515 zone; the next resistance levels are 1.2560 and 1.2675;

- USD/JPY: The forecast for this pair is almost completely identical to the one given for the previous week. Indicators clearly show the pair's growth, with half of the oscillators indicating that the pair is overbought. 55% of experts continue to expect a decline of the pair. This opinion is shared by graphical analysis on H4 as well, which points to respective support levels at 111.35, 110.80 and 109.80. As for the resistance levels, W1 and D1 clearly show that the pair has reached the corridor where it was moving in February-March 2016. Its upper boundary is within the 113.80-114.85 range, whilst the lower one, 110.80, coincides with the readings of graphical analysis;

- USD/CHF: It is clear that almost 100% of indicators look upward. The analysts’ opinions are the following: 45% predict growth, 30% a decline, and 25% a lateral trend. The latter opinion is also supported by graphical analysis, which points to a sideways movement in the 1.0100-1.01900 channel. The next resistance is at 1.0200 and the support levels are at 1.0060 and 1.0000. At the same time, we can reasonably assume a high chance that this week, just as in the previous one, the pair’s behaviour will once again constitute a mirror image of that of EUR/USD.

Roman Butko, NordFX

Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets; they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and it can lead to loss of money deposited.

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Forex Forecast for EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY and USDCHF for 05 - 09 December 2016

First, a review of last week’s forecast:
- With a few minor allowances, last week's forecast for EUR/USD can be considered fulfilled. As a reminder, the indicators on H4 predicted a sideways trend, one third of the experts expected the pair to rebound into the 1.0650-1.0700 area, and the remainder referred to the level of 1.0500 as a support level. Graphical analysis pointed to the sideways channel in the 1.0500-1.0720 range. The pair did, in fact, end up spending the whole week traveling eastwards. However, the pair never actually managed to reach the aforementioned support level: this week’s low-point was 50 points higher at 1.0551. However, it entered the resistance zone three times, reaching the level of 1.0690 on Friday;
- The forecast for GBP/USD was talking about a lateral movement of this pair with a dominant bullish trend. However, it turned out that the "dominant" did not do the bulls justice as a descriptor. From Monday to Wednesday the pair, as expected, was moving sideways, oscillating in the 1.2385-1.2530 range. After that, however the bulls, regaining their strength, made a great stride northwards, and in a matter of hours won 200 points from the bears. As a result, the pair finished the week at the level of 1.2730;
- Giving the outlook for USD/JPY, we noted that the pair had reached the corridor where it was moving in February-March 2016. Its upper boundary was within 113.80-114.85, whilst the lower boundary was at 110.80. At the same time, resting on the assumption that the pair was overbought, 55% of the experts expected a decline of the pair at least to the level of 111.35. That is exactly what happened. On Monday, the pair went down precisely to the aforementioned support, then turned around and went to the upper boundary of the corridor, stopping at the height of 114.82. Then it rebounded and completed the week’s session in the 113.50 area;
- USD/CHF. Here, as it often happens, graphical analysis proved to be almost 100 percent accurate, pointing to a sideways trend within the 1.0100-1.0190 range. In fact, the pair kept within the 1.0070-1.0200 range, meaning that the forecast error did not exceed the typical margin of 25-30 points.
***
Forecast for the upcoming week:
Summing up the opinions of several dozen analysts from world leading banks and brokerage companies, as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be suggested:

- Predicting the future of EUR/USD, the indicators on H4 actively recommend its purchase. D1 indicators, on the other hand, have taken a neutral position. 65% of analysts tend to the view that the pair will again test the December 2015 low at 1.0510 and will possibly descend to the March 2015 low of 1.0460. As for graphical analysis, it clarifies that a significant upward rebound to the resistance in the 1.0900 zone may follow. It should be noted that at the time of this forecast’s writing the results of the referendum in Italy are still unknown. It is only natural to assume that these results can make significant adjustments to the determination of euro currency pair rates;
- It is absolutely clear that when predicting the future of GBP/USD almost all indicators point to the growth of the pair, with only a fifth of the oscillators saying that it is overbought. However, the opinion of the majority of experts (65%) and graphical analysis on D1 is diametrically opposite. According to their forecast, the pair must first descend to the level of 1.2510 and then proceed to go even lower to the support at 1.2385 and 1.2300. The resistance will be in the 1.2865-1.3015 zone;
- USD/JPY. Just as in the GBP/USD case, the indicators suggest purchasing the pair and the majority of experts (55%) recommend selling it. Graphical analysis seems to provide a compromise view: according to its readings, the pair will continue to fluctuate within the boundaries of the February-March 2016 corridor. In other words, it will first rise again to the upper border of 114.85 and then fall to the level of 110.80;
- Now onto USD/CHF. Here, 70% of experts, graphical analysis, and 80% of indicators on H4 vote for the fall of the pair at least to the level of 1.0000, or indeed even lower to the 0.9900 vicinity. An alternative point of view is expressed by the remaining 30% of analysts and the indicators on D1: according to them the pair will continue to stay in the side channel in the range 1.0070-1.0200 for some time.
Roman Butko, NordFX
Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#forex #forex_forecast #eurusd #signals_forex #binary_options http://nordfx.com/
http://nordfx.com/