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Yuan 2020: Buy or Sell?

A recent report by the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication (SWIFT) says that China’s national currency got firmly established in the top 5 of the most used currencies of the world’s economy. Moreover, the share of yuan payments globally has been rising sharply and exceeded 2 percent. Even more impressive is the value of yuan transactions in international trade – one of these days it will surpass 10 percent.

Over the past five years, the yuan has turned into a major regional currency, primarily due to China’s trade integration with the main developing markets. In East Asia, there’s actually a bloc of countries that have pegged their national currencies to the yuan more than to the US dollar. They include Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, Taiwan, Thailand, the Philippines and South Korea.

The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) forecasts that by 2020 China will become the world’s second largest economy and Chinese population’s purchasing power will basically catch up with that of the United States.

HSBC experts echo the EIU opinion, albeit with an important reservation – The yuan is set to become a major world currency quite soon. However, it doesn’t mean that the yuan will replace the US dollar as a dominant reserve currency. Instead, it will help to create a more comprehensive system of reserve currencies, with the dollar, the euro and the yuan playing their respective part.

Pundits from the Peterson Institute for International Economics (Washington, USA), one of the most renowned think tanks focused on international economics, say that the yuan would need 10 to 15 years to turn into a full-fledged reserve currency alongside the US dollar. Towards this end, China has to carry out a number of reforms and first of all open up the foreign and finance sectors of its economy.

Standard Chartered finance gurus differ on this and believe that by 2020 China won’t just catch up with the US economy but overtake it.

NordFX leading analyst John Gordon weighs in, “With this said, the key question is whether China’s government would want to deal with all the issues pertaining to turning the yuan into a global currency. On the one hand, China is obviously interested in becoming less dependent on the dollar but, on the other hand, it can be achieved only by loosening restrictions on its foreign exchange and capital markets at the very least. The fixed exchange rate shields the yuan from external speculative attacks. What will happen if this protection goes down and the yuan trades freely? Would China really want to see this rather risky process through?”

It’s no secret that from the very start of his first presidential term Barack Obama tried to put pressure on the Chinese government to quit devaluing the yuan rate artificially. But if the yuan is traded freely, Chinese products will get much more expensive, which, in turn, will hurt their competitiveness abroad and substantially change China’s export-orientated economy. Will Chinese leadership venture on this path?

“At NordFX, we closely watch everything related to financial markets, – continues John Gordon. – Judging by the latest rhetoric, Chinese authorities sound very decisive. It would suffice to recall that Yi Gang, Director of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange and Deputy Governor of the People's Bank of China, announced that China had already started talks with the IMF about including the yuan into the global reserve currency basket in the near future.”

According to this high-ranking official, the yuan meets all IMF requirements at this time. Hence, it appears that the issue has to do more with politics rather than economy.

As far as the Forex market is concerned, the main factor here is exchange rate fluctuations. Debating a five-year investment horizon for the yuan, many analysts predict it would rise by 15-17 percent. However, Yi Gang’s interview with Bloomberg in Beijing highlights two important things. First and undeniable is that the Chinese currency has been very stable over the last few years, and the other and thought-provoking is the assurance that the yuan will remain as stable in the future.

What’s also noteworthy is three main directions of China’s policy singled out in a Financial Times article:
- China tends to purchase fewer US Treasurys;
- China broadens its overseas expansion program;
- promotion of the yuan as a global currency is encouraged as it gradually sets China free from the dollar.

The Financial Times article seems to imply that the era of boundless privileges for the USA as the emitter of the main global currency is coming to an end. It is going to be replaced by a dual currency world – the US dollar and the yuan. However, due to the fact the yuan exchange rate was, is and will be fixed by the Chinese government for a while, the profitability of long-term yuan investments is rather questionable. Nonetheless, considering limited and controlled volatility, short-term speculations may actually appeal to traders.

Generalized Forex Forecast for 6-10 July 2015

First, a few words about last week’s forecast:
- the predictions for EUR/USD turned out to be correct – a further sideways trend with an advantage for the bears that were expected to push the pair down to the 1.1035 support level. Even a formidable gap over the weekend didn’t get in the way. After the gap, the pair quickly recovered its initial standing and started to follow the forecast – it descended to a 1.1032 support level under bearish pressure and then, confirming the prediction about the sideways trend, slowly continued upward to month old rates;
- as for GBP/USD, the analysts put their foot into it this time. For the first half of the week, as predicted, the pair tried to stay in the sideways corridor but then rushed downwards, finishing at a strong support level around 1.5550;
- the experts and the indicators agreed that the bulls would have the upper hand with USD/JPY and would push it upwards. It would have happened but for the gap on the weekend. In fact, the bulls had to clear up the consequences of that fall and succeeded, for the record. Already by mid-week, the pair returned to the sideways corridor it had stayed in since the beginning of June;
- USD/CHF finished the week exactly at the predicted level of 0.9400, albeit with some delay.

Forecast for the upcoming week.
One can be certain that this week the results of the Greek referendum would have the final say on currency fluctuations. For this reason, it would stand to reason to focus on the opinions of analysts from world leading banks and broker companies rather than indicator readings this time round:
- 64% of the reviewed experts don’t foresee a bright future for the euro. They believe that EUR/USD should fall by 100-200 points at least. Only 18% of the analysts claim that the euro would rise to 1.1250. Interestingly enough, they include an expert from Greece. But even his short-term optimism is overshadowed by the long-term forecast that that by the end of the summer the pair should get to a 1.0500-1.0700 level;
- the opinions of the analysts about GBP/USD have split almost equally – 44% argue for its fall, 44% for its rise and 12% remain undecided. According to graphical analysis, the pair should descend to 1.5430-1.5500 by the middle of the week and then return to the 1.5550-1.5616 range;
- the experts, the technical indicators and graphical analysis stay unanimous that the Pivot Point for USD/JPY should be at 124.00, meaning that the pair is on the threshold of an upward leap to 125.00. Support can be at 122.00;
- the USD/CHF pair is expected to continue to fall but this time to 0.9330 and possibly even lower to 0.9280.

In conclusion, it’s worth mentioning again that the accuracy of this forecast largely depends on a rather small country called Greece. Therefore, it would make sense to not only wait for the referendum outcome but also for ensuing reactions on financial markets.

Roman Butko, NordFX

Generalized Forex Forecast for 13-17 July 2015

Let’s start with a review of last week’s forecast:
- regarding EUR/USD, 64% of the analysts expected the pair to fall by at least 100-200 points while 18% of the analysts claimed that the euro would rise to 1.1250. Following the news from Greece, both forecasts were fulfilled – the week started with a gap of 140 points, on Tuesday the drop made the mentioned 200 points, then the pair started to go up and reached 1.1215 by the end of the week;
- the predictions for GBP/USD were also correct. According to graphical analysis, the pair was supposed to go down to 1.5430-1.5500 mid-week and then return to the 1.5550-1.5616 marks. All of that happened indeed – GBP/USD descended to 1.5430 on Tuesday, reached its low of 1.5330 on Wednesday and then soared up to 1.5555;
- the experts, the technical indicators and the graphical analysis readings were only partly right about USD/JPY. Their forecast about the 122.00 support level held up for the first half of the week, after which the pair had a dive to 120.45. Then it made a U-turn, rushed upwards and ended up at the level of the beginning of the week, i.e. 122.75;
- the USD/CHF pair was expected to fall to 0.9330, and it did happen. After putting up resistance for a while, the pair crashed down at the end of the week. It was able to stay at the 0.9330 target jusе for one minute.

Forecast for this week. Summing up the opinions of 35 analysts from world leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based various methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be suggested:
- just like last week, fluctuations on the currency market will largely depend on the events in Greece. At the same time, most experts (62%) and indicators (53%) predict that the EUR/USD pair will rise and move to around 1.1365. Graphical analysis, in turn, indicates a possible sideways trend with support at 1.1000 and resistance at 1.1215;
- as for GBP/USD, the opinions of the analysts (54% vs 46%) and indicator readings (H4 for a rise, D1 for a fall) diverge. Graphical analysis promises a repeat of last week’s scenario – the pair falling to around 1.5350 and then rising to resistance at 1.5555. In case of a breakthrough, the target will be 1.5930;
- the experts, the technical indicators and graphical analysis are unanimous about USD/JPY returning to around 123.50. However, at the start of the week, a short-term fall to the support level of 122.00 can’t be ruled out;
- the opinions about USD/CHF are split, though the majority of the analysts (64%) believe that last Friday’s finishing level of 0.9380 will become the main resistance, off which the pair will be bouncing down towards 0.9330 or even lower to 0.9250. Graphical analysis, however, puts forward an alternative scenario with 0.9380 as support. The start of week is likely to reveal which of the two scenarios will actually play out.

Roman Butko, NordFX

Generalized Forex Forecast for 20-24 July 2015

The accuracy of last week’s forecast was significantly influenced by statistical reports and speeches by high-ranking officials, with the following outcomes:
- the support level for EUR/USD was set at 1.1000, and the pair tried to break through it for the first half of the week. It eventually happened on seemingly less important news from the USA, and by Friday the pair reached last May’s low;
- GBP/USD was expected to fall to around 1.5350, then rise and possibly break through the resistance level of 1.5555. The pair did fall, although not as much as predicted – to 1.5450. After that, following the speech by the head of the Bank of England, GBP/USD soared, broke through 1.5555 and turned this level into support;
- the forecast for USD/JPY can be considered 100% accurate. As put forward, the pair went down to the support level of 122.00 for a short while and then moved into the earlier mentioned zone with the Pivot Point at 123.50;
- there were two alternative scenarios for USD/CHF’s direction, and the start of the week was supposed to show which of them would play out. That was the case – it was clear already on Monday that the pair would follow the indications of graphical analysis and go up, making 0.9380 its initial support level.

Forecast for the coming week. Generalizing the opinions of 35 analysts from leading banks and broker companies, as well as forecasts based on a wide variety of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be said:
- the EUR/USD pair appears to be in a unique situation – 100% of the experts predict its rise and 100% of the indicators predict its fall. However, both suggest only minor fluctuations, which seems to be due to the lack of any major news in the upcoming week. Support is likely to be at 1.0750-1.0800 while resistance – at 1.1110. Graphical analysis confirms this, showing a sideways trend with some advantage for the bulls;
- GBP/USD is also expected to be in a sideways trend with the Pivot Point at 1.5615, support around 1.5550 and resistance at 1.5760. All of the experts and an ascending corridor, clearly visible on Н4, suggest that the pair should reach this level within the first half of the week. According to graphical analysis on H1, there may be a short-term drop to the support level before the pair rises;
- last week USD/JPY reached its 2007 high. Both experts and indicators are of the opinion that, with support at 123.75, the pair will continue to move upwards to 126.00 for some time. The next support level will be at 123.00;
- the USD/CHF pair is widely believed to continue to rise to 0.9600 and further to 0.9700. This week the main support will be around 0.9520.

Roman Butko, NordFX

Still double checking about all the details here and see if all the details are good to go here.

Generalized Forex Forecast for 27-31 July 2015

First, a few words about the forecast for the previous week:
- the EUR/USD pair was predicted to be in a sideways trend with bulls prevailing and to move from support at 1.0750-1.0800 to resistance at 1.1110, which actually happened. Despite the pair being just short of the top boundary of the designated corridor, the forecast stood overall;
- the GBP/USD pair somewhat disappointed the analysts. The forecast was a sideways trend with support at 1.5555, which the pair tried to break during the first half of the week. On Thursday, it finally managed to do that and, as a result, fell to its 2-weeks old support around 1.5470;
- as predicted, USD/JPY tried to continue its rise at the beginning of the week but, with the bullish influence weakened, the pair entered a sideways trend, moving in a very narrow corridor and relying on support at 123.75;
- the lack of news last week affected the USD/CHF pair – it was unable to reach the desired height of 0.9700 and on Thursday fell to the expected level of support around of 0.9520, rebounded off it and returned to the rates of the start of the week.

Forecast for the coming week.
Summing up the opinions of 35 analysts from world leading banks and broker companies, as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be said:
- a look at the H4 chart for EUR/USD would make it clear that the technical indicators will vote for the pair’s further rise. However, on D1 the picture is different – only 52% of the indicators echo this, while 48% hold the opposite view. Furthermore, 85% of the experts also vote for the pair’s fall, with the target as a drop to at least of 1.0850 or even further to 1.0800. Graphical analysis predicts a sideways trend in the range of 1.0900-1.1015 in the first half of the week and a rise to 1.1115 in case the resistance level gets broken through;
- according to 80% of the analysts, GBP/USD is likely to fall further and transition to 1.5335-1.5450, with 75% of the indicators supporting human reasoning. However, graphical analysis shows that the pair will fall only to 1.5400, after which it will continue to move up in an ascending corridor visible on D1;
- the analysts believe that USD/JPY won’t abandon its attempts to go up to at least 125.00. Both technical and graphical analysis readings agree with this general trend. Support will be around 123.65, with the next level at 122.50;
- as for the USD/CHF pair, 65% of the analysts expect it to rise to 0.9700. The indicators also confirm that the pair will try to finish what it failed to do last week. Graphical analysis on D1 paints this picture – first, a fall to support at 0.9520, followed by a rise to the target height of 0.9700, and then… a crash to a 0.9325 support level. The H1 and H4 timeframes spell such a crash much sooner.

Roman Butko, NordFX

Generalized Forex Forecast for 3-7 August 2015

First, a review of the past week:
- the forecast for EUR/USD based on graphical analysis turned out to be nearly perfect – a sideways trend in the range of 1.0900-1.1015 and a rise to 1.1115 if the pair broke through resistance. Last week’s chart displays all of that – the sideways trend, the break through resistance and the pair’s rise to 1.1115, with a support level of 1.0900;
- graphical analysis was also correct in regards to GBP/USD. It indicated that the pair would move in an ascending corridor visible on D1. This is precisely what happened – all week long the pair climbed up slowly, sticking to the bottom boundary of the corridor;
- the analysts and technical analysis were unanimous about USD/JPY – the pair was supposed to continue its effort to reach 125.00. It did try but failed to get over strong resistance at 124.50 once again;
- graphical analysis was close to perfection in its predictions for USD/CHF as well. The D1 scenario included a fall to support at 0.9520, followed by a rise to the target level of 0.9700 and a further crash to support at 0.9325. It all happened, though the crash was less dramatic – to 0.9550.

Forecast for the coming week. Generalizing the opinions of 35 analysts from the world leading banks and broker companies, as well as forecasts based on various methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be put forward:
- it’s rather difficult to sum up the analysts’ views on EUR/USD but giving it a shot, it can be said that the pair’s Pivot Point will be at 1.0970. The pair will be oscillating around this line in a 1.0820-1.1115 range. The indicators also show neutral behavior for the pair while there’s no clarity with graphical analysis. Hopefully, the start of the week will shed more light on this;
- all of the analysts predict that GBP/USD will be in a sideways trend with prevailing bullish tendencies and support at 1.5520. A rise is foretold by 74% of the indicators, which is confirmed by graphical analysis. According to it, there may be a slight fall initially, after which the pair will be pushing off support at 1.5510, go up to 1.5830 and return to the support level. However, the return may happen 10-14 August instead of this week;
- as for USD/JPY, only 11% of the experts believe that the pair will finally reach 125.00, with the rest talking about a drop to around 123.00. Graphical analysis proposes the following scenario: first down to 123.40, then a rise to at least 124.40, followed by a sharp fall to a 122.00 support level. Only the technical indicators on H4 and D1 show that the pair will start moving upwards right away on Monday;
- the analysts are quite vague about USD/CHF, unlike the indicators that give a clear and almost unanimous (78%) forecast of a rise to a 0.9730-0.9750 range. Support will be at 0.9510.

Roman Butko, NordFX

Forex Forecast for 10-14 August 2015

First, a few words about the forecast for the previous week:
- the predictions for EUR/USD panned out. According to the forecast, the pair was to maintain a sideways trend, oscillating around the 1.0970 Pivot Point. Support was set around 1.0820. Throughout the week, the bears repeatedly pressed the pair down to that level but gave up after a few failed attempts to break through it. So the pair finished the week at a 1.0960-1.0970 Pivot Point;
- the sideways trend predicted for GBP/USD lasted only until Thursday. By the end of the week, the pair managed to break through the support around 1.5510-1.5520 and fell briefly, hitting the bottom at 1.5425;
- the indicators and 11% of the experts were correct about USD/JPY. The former predicted that the pair would start going up right away on Monday while the latter claimed that the pair would reach 125.00 as a result of such movement. Then, according to graphical analysis, the pair was supposed to crash sharply, and it did on Friday on the news from the USA, reaching a strong support level at 124.15;
- almost all the indicators predicted that USD/CHF would rise to around 0.9730-0.9750, and the pair not only made it to that level but actually surpassed it by 100 points.

Forecast for the upcoming week.
Summarizing the opinions of 35 analysts from the world leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on a large variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be said:
- regarding EUR/USD, 36% of the experts believe that the pair will drop to 1.0800 while another 45% say that the pair will break this barrier and go further down to 1.0650-1.0700 support. The indicators on D1 concur. The remaining 19% of the experts and the indicators on H4 insist on a further short-term upward trend to 1.1000-1.1050, after which the direction of the pair’s movement should change;
- most analysts and the indicators predict that GBP/USD will fall further and transition into a 1.5340-1.5400 zone. At the same time, while in agreement with this, graphical analysis elaborates that before falling, GBP/USD will stay in a 1.5460-1.5540 sideways corridor for some time and try to break through resistance in order to reach 1.5800. Even if it happens, the bulls shouldn’t celebrate as the pair will go down sharply in 2-3 days anyway;
- the USD/JPY pair is very likely to try to reach its June high and even surpass it slightly by reaching 126.00. After this, according to graphical analysis, the pair will be moving sideways within a 124.15-125.80 range and step up efforts to go down to a 122.50 support level;
- the experts, the indicators and graphical analysis agree that USD/CHF will enter a sideways trend with a 0.9840 Pivot Point. The bulls, on the other hand, will not cease their attempts to reach a 1.0000 hallmark, even though the main resistance level for this week will be 0.9900. Support will be at 0.9800 and 0.9710.

Roman Butko, NordFX

Generalized Forex Forecast for 17-21 August 2015

First, a few words about the forecast for the previous week:
- most analysts predicted that EUR/USD would drop, and only 19% of them mentioned a continuing upward trend. Experience has shown that the majority opinion isn’t always right – on Monday, the pair started to rise sharply, broke through resistance at 1.1050 and settled down at July’s high of 1.1210;
- the situation with GBP/USD was similar. The forecast closest to reality was given only by graphical analysis – contrary to the analysts, it predicted a sideways trend with support at 1.5460 and a drive to break through resistance at 1.5540. This eventually happened, and the resistance level turned into support;
- as expected, USD/JPY attempted to reach June’s high right away but only managed to conquer a 125.25 height. Then, in full accordance with the indications of graphical analysis, the pair tumbled down and entered a sideways trend with support around 124.15;
- overall, the forecast for USD/CHF can be counted as fulfilled – a sideways trend with a 0.9840 Pivot Point, resistance at 0.9900 and support at 0.9800. The pair moved within this range for the first half of the week, then dropped to the second support around 0.9710 and continued its sideways movement.

Forecast for the coming week.
Generalizing the opinions of 35 analysts from world leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on a large variety of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be suggested:
- regarding EUR/USD, 23% of the analysts support a continuation of the upward trend with the target of 1.1280, which is echoed by 56% of the indicators. But 23% of the analysts believe that the pair should descend while 46% of them indicate a sideways trend with a Pivot Point at 1.1110. At the same time, the indicators and graphical analysis point to a possible fall to support at 1.1035 early in the week. The next support will be around 1.0960;
- most analysts predict GBP/USD to fall to 1.5550. With this, the indicators and graphical analysis suggest that the pair should first reach 1.5690. The inclined line of support for such rise is clearly visible on the H1 and H4 charts. Graphical analysis on D1 indicates that within the next two weeks the pair will make a few attempts to break support at 1.5550 and, if successful, it will fall to 1.5200. After that, there will be a rebound to 1.5650;
- there’s basically unanimity regarding USD/JPY – sideways movement in a 123.75-125.30 corridor with a Pivot Point at 124.60. At the same time, graphical analysis on D1 indicates that one of the pair’s attempts to reach a 126.00 height may be successful. This should happen at the very end of August;
- the USD/CHF pair is very likely to continue its upward trend which started in the last decade of June. This ascending corridor is best visible on H4. The pair is currently near its lower boundary of 0.9710, off which it’s expected to bounce up towards 0.9900. After that, USD/CHF may enter a sideways trend with support around 0.9500, as was the case in March-April of this year.

Roman Butko, NordFX

Forex Forecast for 24-28 August 2015

Let’s review the forecast for the previous week:
- the EUR/USD pair was predicted to go down to the 1.1035 support at the start of the week, which happened. The pair fell to the said level 18 August. Next day, after a rebound, the pair rose to the set target of 1.1280 where it stayed most of Friday;
- the forecast for GBP/USD also stood. First, the pair reached 1.5690 and then sharply descended to around 1.5550 (1.5560 to be precise). On Tuesday, the predicted bounce towards the top boundary of the ascending trend (1.5690) took place, and the pair finished the week at that very level;
- the sideways trend predicted for USD/JPY lasted only for the first half of the week. However, the USA and China supported the bears, and the pair ended up 250 pips below the level of the start of the week;
- there was a similar situation with USD/CHF. On Wednesday, the bears simply derailed the pair, and only an extremely strong support level of 0.9480 was able to stop that dramatic fall. The pair has been trying to break through this level since spring.

Forecast for the coming week.
Summarizing the opinions of 35 analysts from leading banks and brokerages as well as forecasts based on various methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be proposed:
- most analysts believe that once EUR/USD reaches a strong resistance level of 1.1460, it will remain in a sideways trend with support at 1.1150 for some time. An alternative view suggests that EUR/USD will fall to 1.0840 after the current correction. As for the indicators, H1, H4 and D1 all point exclusively upwards. Even W1 shows a sideways trend as a compromise. Graphical analysis on H1, however, insists on the pair’s decline to at least 1.1290 at the start of the week;
- for the GBP/USD pair, 80% of the experts and 85% of the indicators predict a further up trend with a 1.5800 target at the very least. This forecast is supported by graphical analysis on Н4. The H1 timeframe, however, indicates a continuation of the short-term sideways trend within a 1.5650-1.5715 range at the beginning of the week. In case of a downward breakthrough, the key support should be at 1.5550;
- as for USD/JPY, 78% of the experts agree that the pair’s fall will end around 122.00, followed by a bounce all the way to resistance at 124.60. Should the pair break through the 122.00 support level, it can easily go down to 120.20. Graphical analysis seems to indicate a very similar scenario – a short-term descent to around 120.40-121.20, followed by a rebound to 124.60;
- regarding USD/CHF, both experts and graphical analysis propose that the pair’s rise will start from 0.9400 and continue to a 0.9700-0.9750 range. At the same time, graphical analysis doesn’t rule out that the ascent will begin right away on Monday. As for a longer-term forecast for the coming months, USD/CHF may fall to 0.9100, reverse and reach the 1.0000 hallmark after all.

Roman Butko, NordFX