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Turkey Jobless Rate At 19-month High




Turkey's unemployment rate grew for a fifth straight month to its highest level in over one-and-a-half years, figures from the Turkish Statistical Institute showed on Monday.


The jobless rate climbed to 11.4 percent from 11.1 percent in August. The latest figure was the highest since March 2017, when the rate was 11.7 percent.


The number of unemployed grew to 3.75 million persons from 3.67 million in the previous month. Employment fell to 29.01 million from 29.32 million.


The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate edged up to 11.3 percent from 11.2 percent.


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Franc Mixed Ahead Of SECO Economic Forecasts





Switzerland's State Secretariat for Economic Affairs is set to publish its quarterly economic forecasts at 1:45 am ET Tuesday. Ahead of the data, the franc traded mixed against its major counterparts. While the franc held steady against the yen, it fell against the greenback and the pound. Against the euro, it rose.


The franc was worth 113.37 against the yen, 1.1268 against the euro, 1.2541 against the pound and 0.9933 against the greenback as of 1:40 am ET.


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Euro Little Changed After German PPI





Following the release of German producer prices for November at 2:00 am ET Wednesday, the euro changed little against its major counterparts.


The euro was trading at 127.99 against the yen, 1.1299 against the franc, 0.8995 against the pound and 1.1385 against the greenback around 2:03 am ET.


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Australia Unemployment Rate Climbs To 5.1% In November





The jobless rate in Australia came in at a seasonally adjusted 5.1 percent in November, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said on Thursday.


That exceeded expectations for 5.0 percent, which would have been unchanged from the October reading.


The Australian economy added 37,000 jobs to 12,694,300 last month - blowing away expectations for an increase of 20,000 jobs following the gain of 32,800 in the previous month.


Full-time employment decreased 6,400 to 8,684,600 and part-time employment increased 43,400 to 4,009,600.


Unemployment increased 12,500 to 683,100. Male unemployment increased 11,500 persons and female unemployment increased 1,000 persons.


The participation rate was 65.7 percent, beating forecasts for 65.6 percent - which would have been unchanged from a month earlier.


Monthly hours worked in all jobs decreased 3.3 million hours to 1,759.5 million hours.


The monthly trend underemployment rate increased less than 0.1 pts to 8.4 percent.


The monthly trend underutilization rate remained steady at 13.5 percent. The monthly seasonally adjusted underemployment rate increased 0.2 pts to 8.5 percent.


The monthly seasonally adjusted underutilization rate increased 0.2 pts to 13.6 percent.


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Euro Mixed Ahead Of German Import Price Index, GfK Survey





German import price index for November and GfK consumer sentiment index for January are scheduled for release at 2:00 am ET Friday. Ahead of these data, the euro traded mixed against its major counterparts. While the euro rose against the greenback and the yen, it held steady against the franc. Against the pound, it retreated.


The euro was worth 127.59 against the yen, 0.9043 against the pound, 1.1455 against the greenback and 1.1308 against the franc as of 1:55 am ET.


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New Zealand December Food Prices Rise Seasonally Adjusted 0.5%





Food prices in New Zealand advanced a seasonally adjusted 0.5 percent on month in December, Statistics New Zealand said on Tuesday.


Unadjusted, food prices were down 0.2 percent last month.


In December, fruit and vegetable prices fell 1.1 percent (down 0.6 percent after seasonal adjustment) on month; meat, poultry, and fish prices rose 0.2 percent; grocery food prices rose 0.1 percent (up 0.5 percent after seasonal adjustment); non-alcoholic beverage prices fell 2.6 percent; and restaurant meals and ready-to-eat food prices rose 0.2 percent.


On a yearly basis, food prices were up 1.0 percent in December.


In December, fruit and vegetable prices decreased 6.1 percent on year; meat, poultry, and fish prices increased 3.8 percent; grocery food prices increased 1.4 percent; non-alcoholic beverage prices decreased 0.2 percent; and restaurant meals and ready-to-eat food prices increased 2.9 percent.


"Overall, getting your five-plus a day servings of fruit and vegetables was cheaper in 2018," consumer prices manager Geraldine Duoba said. "Bad weather in 2017 reduced the supply of many vegetables, pushing up their prices. Growing conditions were mostly more favorable during 2018, boosting supply and lowering prices."


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Dutch Retail Sales Growth At 7-Month High





Dutch retail sales grew the most in seven months during November, mainly driven by non-food sales, figures from the Central Bureau of Statistics showed on Tuesday.


Retail sales rose a working-day adjusted 4.1 percent year-on-year following a 3.3 percent increase in October.


The pace of growth was the fastest since April, when sales rose 5.8 percent.


Food sales rose 2.5 percent and non-food sales increased 3.8 percent, largely led by increased demand for consumer electronics, shoes and leather goods.


Online sales surged nearly 20 percent in November.


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British authorities hold power, Nomura sells EUR / GBP





There is a possibility that British Prime Minister Theresa May will resign within a few days after a devastating vote. Still, Nomura does not believe in tough Brexit, waiting for the stabilization of the political situation in the country and the growth rate of sterling. Thus, currency strategists explained the opening of a short position in EUR / GBP pair from 0.8880.


London representatives of the bank reported that the position of British Prime Minister Theresa May looks quite constructive. Her desire to lengthen the term of Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty and the intention to begin inter-party negotiations on the country's withdrawal from the group will most likely allow the British government to retain power.


If a vote of no confidence is announced to the government, the pound may drop by 3%.


The bank estimates that next week traders will focus on what Ms. May can offer as a backup plan.


Many political analysts believe that the British Prime Minister will once again "stand on his feet." May lost in the House of Commons, but "there is no immediate threat to her position." Theresa May will remain in power, as the Democratic Unionist Party and the Conservatives, who voted against her unpopular EU exit deal, will support her.


Note that Ms. May herself contacted, saying that the British government is already busy searching for an acceptable Brexit plan, which would receive the support of parliamentarians.


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Oil reserves in the US for the week decreased by 0.6%, stronger than forecast





According to the Energy Information Administration of the Ministry of Energy, commercial oil reserves in the US (excluding strategic reserves) declined by 2.7 million barrels, or 0.6%, to 437.1 million barrels. Analysts predicted a decline in stocks of only 1.32 million barrels, to 438.38 million barrels.


Oil production in the United States increased by 200 thousand barrels up to 11.9 million barrels per day.


Oil reserves at the country's largest terminal in Cushing decreased by 0.8 million barrels to 41.5 million barrels. Gasoline stocks also showed an increase of 3% (+7.5 million barrels), to 255.6 million barrels. Distillate stocks rose by 2.1% (+3 million barrels), to 143 million barrels.


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China's growth will slow in 2019 and threatens the financial world


China's economy is expected to continue to slow down this year particularly on domestic demand and exports affected by US tariffs. Beijing will most likely have to deploy additional incentive measures.





According to forecasts, China's economic growth will slow to 6.3 percent this year and will be the weakest in 29 years. A significant slowdown in growth in China has already been observed. The resumption of negotiations between the United States and China has increased optimism that Washington may agree to suspend the planned tariff increase, which was originally scheduled to take effect this month. However, a comprehensive agreement to end the dispute seems unlikely, given the number of highly controversial and politically sensitive issues. Even if both sides can conclude a long-term trade deal, it will provide only minor relief to the Chinese economy if Beijing cannot increase domestic investment and demand.


Sources said that China plans to lower its target for economic growth between 6 to 6.5 percent this year. Weak industrial growth and lower consumer spending reduce company profits. Moreover, it also discourages new investment and increases the risk of high job losses. Since earlier growth measures had little impact, we expect Beijing to deploy more incentives in the coming months to prevent a sharp slowdown. More large-scale tax cuts are expected, along with measures to increase consumer demand for products such as household appliances and cars. Both fiscal and monetary policies eased over the past few months and this should begin to spread to the real economy by the second half of this year.





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