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ForexAnalysis · #1 30-10-2008, 01:34 PM

Daily Forex Trading Analysis

Today’s US Dollar Trading

• USD ends lower after starting weaker in Asia overnight
• Fed cuts rates as expected but only 50 BP
• Equities firm but two-way lending pressure to the majors.

Overnight Preview

• Look for the USD to trade sideways
• Should be quiet ahead of US data in the morning

Looking Ahead to Thursday
All times EASTERN (-4 GMT)
• 8:30am USD Advance GDP q/q
• 8:30am USD Advance GDP Price Index q/q
• 8:30am USD FOMC Member Kroszner Speaks
• 8:30am USD Unemployment Claims
• 10:35am USD Natural Gas Storage

Summary
The USD ended the day weaker across the board but intraday volatility and whipsaw kept traders on their toes; most forex traders noting that large order to sell USD were moving through the markets and thin conditions exaggerated the moves. Most desks report that stops and aggressive long-liquidation hit most pairs to drive prices lower across the board; USD/CAD took a major hit dropping over 400 points for a low print at 1.2124 before a bit of short-covering brought the rate back to the 1.2200 handle. Conditions were thin as expected and some traders report that firmer oil prices help support the Loonie and EURO today. EURO almost traded 1.3000 today with a high print at 1.2993 before dropping back as volatility dropped the rate back under the 1.2800 handle briefly. Traders note that fears of a global slowdown plus intervention to slow down the rise of the Yen helped underpin the rate but all eyes were on the US FOMC rate announcement today. As expected the Fed cut rates but the markets were expecting more than a 50 BP cut today; some desks report that the USD was “disappointed” that the cut wasn’t larger but fed watchers note this leaves room for the Fed to cut more later if needed and helps the recovery in equities. Although the DJIA has had a two-way session and will close with only slight gains; after yesterdays massive move the market likely needs to pause for a day or two and get more information before extending the recovery if that is in the works. In my view, the Majors are beginning to show signs that the bottom is in near-term but the volatile nature and thin conditions in recent trade likely mean we will cover a lot of the same ground twice. I would look for a pullback in EURO and GBP to buy and certainly sell rallies in the USD pairs. For the day, GBP performed the best crossing the 1.6400 handle and closing firm on the day. Traders note that liquidation of Yen cross-trades likely supporting most pairs leaving the USD in a corrective mode to end the week. Look for a quiet overnight session ahead of US GDP data in the morning. Most traders are expecting a “recession-like” number so expect more downside from the USD to end the week.

GBP/USD Daily

Resistance 3: 1.6650
Resistance 2: 1.6580
Resistance 1: 1.6500
Latest New York: 1.6400
Support 1: 1.5400
Support 2: 1.5250
Support 3: ?

Comments
Upside finds stops, volatility decreases a bit as today as market extends range in good two-way trade. Traders note stops and unwinding of cross-spreads supporting the rate. Follow-on selling finds bids at prior low. Bounce off the lows early in the week leaves a healthy bid wick suggesting some upside coming. Traders note liquidity is still thin. Rate at new resistance level but ranges appears wider. Traders note quality bids on the dip suggesting a bottom is in finally but expect volatility. Aggressive traders can buy anytime on weakness but expect more whippy action. Two-way action likely to continue. Confirmed sovereign interest on the dip as semi-officials seen on dips in both EURO and GBP recently; lately middle-east names. Traders report cross-spreading for Sterling/JPY lifting the rate.
Data due Thursday: All times EASTERN (-4 GMT)
3:00am GBP Nationwide HPI m/m
8:01pm GBP GfK Consumer Confidence

EURO/USD Daily

Resistance 3: 1.3100
Resistance 2: 1.3050
Resistance 1: 1.300/10
Latest New York: 1.2957
Support 1: 1.2330
Support 2: ?
Support 3: ?

Comments
Rate begins to rally as ranges extend a bit to the upside; hook reversal showing from the toolbox suggests aggressive traders can buy the rate on dips. Rate possibly getting spillover effect from GBP. Overnight equities stronger also helping to lift the rate a bit. Support also from cross-spreaders as they unwind Yen. Official interest noted traders say. Rate is an absolute screaming buy in my view—I can’t see further weakness being ignored by the buyers; conditions are almost right to buy on the net pullback. Oil pressure likely spills over into pricing and if oil rallies it might take EURO with it. Traders note stops building above the market along with offers. Expect more two-way action with upside bias; traders note the rate is finding profit-taking bids on dips so far despite the uncertainty in the market.
Data due Thursday: All times EASTERN (-4 GMT)
4:55am EUR German Unemployment Change
6:00am EUR Consumer Confidence

Join us for the Afternoon US Dollar Wrap-Up daily at 3:15 pm Central/Chicago time (GMT -6)

Analysis Provided by: Forexpros.com - Written by Jason Alan Jankovsky

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