Australia recently recorded its 104th consecutive quarter of growth without a recession, an achievement which breaks the record set by the Netherlands. It prompted Australia’s federal Treasurer Scott Morrison to claim that the economy was in “surprisingly good shape”. His statement is reminiscent of that old joke. How can you tell if a politician is lying? His lips are moving.
Australia’s economy is not in good shape. Its growth has been built on demand for commodities like coal and steel from China and investment in an over-inflated property market that has been fuelled by years of cheap credit. These dual dependencies are about to be brutally exposed

The exact timing and full impact of Australia’s economic tailspin is unknown. However, a precise date and exact knowledge of its magnitude are unnecessary in order to take advantage of the collapse as a trader. The circumstances that make an economic crash inevitable are already in place and it is far better to be five months early rather than five minutes late for an opportunity like this.


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