Thread: FXB Blog - Forex Articles

Don’t bank on the banks
As earnings season edges closer, investors are looking over the banking sector’s biggest names to assess their potential.


JPMorgan (JPM) and Citigroup (C) release their figures first, followed by Wells Fargo (WFC) and Bank of America (BAC) then Goldman Sachs (GS) and Morgan Stanley (MS).


US banks have benefited recently from a perceived likelihood of interest rate increases from the US Federal Reserve. However, much of these banks’ future performance will depend on the tax cuts that US President Donald Trump proposed recently, and the ability of his administration to get them through Congress.


If passed, net income of the big six banks could rise $6.4 billion with Wells Fargo, Bank of America and JPMorgan the biggest beneficiaries, according to a recent Bloomberg report.


However, Trump’s administration has been frustrated by Congress’ unwillingness to back the president on a number of policies that he has wanted to pass since coming into power.


And Morgan Stanley’s chief US equity strategist, Mike Wilson, claims that S&P 500 companies will not hit their 2018 estimates without them.


JPMorgan chief executive Jamie Dimon predicted a 20% year-on-year decline in the bank’s trading revenues. However, analysts are expecting JPMorgan to report EPS (earnings per share) of $1.66, an increase from the $1.58 recorded in the same period last year despite revenues falling year-on-year to reach $25.3bn.


Citigroup’s chief financial officer offered a similar outlook revealing that total market revenues are down 15% in the third quarter. However, Citigroup EPS are forecast to be $1.30, six cents higher than the same quarter earnings posted last year.


Wells Fargo’s problems are self-inflicted as they are struggling to shrug off the battering their reputation took as a result of numerous recent scandals. Wells Fargo may be legendary investor Warren Buffet’s favourite stock but earnings are expected to be less than 1% up on last year.


Bank of America warned earlier this month that trading revenue in the third quarter is expected to be down 20% and that this is may have a negative effect on its quarterly earnings report.


Goldman Sachs produced record revenues in the first three months of the year and maintained a strong performance throughout the first six months. Goldman Sachs co-president Harvey Schwartz is predicting similar figures for the third quarter. Despite this the bank seem to have missed out on the recent big bank rally with its share price up just 1%. The EPS forecast is $4.25 down on last year’s $4.88.


Morgan Stanley’s share price has increased more than 16% this year. Analysts forecast EPS of $0.84, up exactly $0.04 from 2014’s $0.8 EPS.


For more advice on the banking sector and how to capitalise on share price movements talk to the experts at FXB Trading.

Prime time to trade Netflix


If you’re already a Netflix (NFLX) subscriber you probably don’t need too much convincing about how good it is and will appreciate why analysts are predicting thatits share price is set to rise even higher, despite the fact that it has already grown 59% this year as it teases the $200 per share mark.

You will notice from the chart that Netflix share price has a tendency to reach a peak as quarterly earnings figures are announced followed by a drop before picking up on its overall upward trend.


If you’re not a Netflix subscriber then you’re one of the reasons why these analysts expect its share price to keep on rising – they expect that you soon will be. Streaming is the present and the future.


It’s a service that meets the entertainment needs of our increasingly demanding lives and once you’ve subscribed it’s hard to live without.


Think of it as having unlimited access to one of those old video stores that you used to rent DVDs from. Only with Netflix you never need to leave your home to get your viewing entertainment and you watch what you want, when you want and as many times as you want.


Opt for the premium service and you can also view the content simultaneously from another screen, tablet or smartphone and enjoy your favourite show while other members of your family watch what they want.


And most important of all, Netflix offers some of the best shows and movies around in an app that’s very easy to use. So far, they’ve produced hits like “House of Cards”, “Orange is the New Black”, “Narcos”, “Peaky Blinders” and “The Killing”.


Last week Netflix announced a price rise which immediately boosted stock prices. And they are not worried about losing subscribers because it’s still value for money. By comparison, the monthly subscription for the premium service is about the same as it costs one person to go to the cinema.


Wall Street firm UBS has told its clients that Netflix will report a third-quarter subscriber growth, and this has been achieved without the addition of any compelling new content.


However, new content is being rolled out in the fourth quarter with the release of new seasons of “Stranger Things” and the “The Crown” – two of the network’s most popular shows.


Netflix recently made its first acquisition by buying Millarworld, a comic book publishing company that includes “Kingsman: The Secret Service” and “Wanted” among its titles which suggests further new original content should be expected.


Netflix has competition from rivals Hulu and Amazon (AMZN),and the potential entry of Disney (DIS) into the streaming market could disrupt their market share. Traders who have followed Netflix for a long time are also aware that the stock can be volatile. However, as long as it continues to produce its own steady stream of original content and remains price competitive it stands on firm ground.


For more advice on Netflixand how to capitalise on share price movements talk to the experts at FXB Trading.

Cryptocurrencies and gold: You need to take a position

Any trader looking to make money on the markets needs to invest time researching before taking a position.


If you do a search on cryptocurrencies it won’t be long before you’ll see an article that compares their merits against gold.


Should you invest your hard-earned money in gold or cryptocurrencies? They ask, and variations on that theme.


The number of these articles implies that they are somehow in competition with each other.


But it’s a phoney war, as they both have a different role to play in the world of finance and in your portfolio.


One of the reasons gold has stood the test of time is the stability it offers against the unpredictability of currencies and the sudden collapses that have taken place throughout history that can wipe out fortunes in an instant.


Gold is the perfect way to hedge against risk, impervious to natural, financial or political disasters.


Cryptocurrencies also offer a viable alternative to traditional currencies because they are decentralised, meaning no central authority can take it away from you.


But they differ in tangibility. Gold has been around forever and relied upon for centuries. Cryptocurrencies have no history, they are so new people are still waking up to them and their possibilities.


The sense of value that comes in physically holding gold can’t be replicated by cryptocurrencies. They don’t ‘feel’ as safe as gold because they rely on an internet connection, they can’t be seen, they can’t be held.


But in reality, very few people reading this will have actually bought anything with gold. The likelihood is that most never will, but there is a strong possibility that some will make a transaction with a form of cryptocurrency in the future.


Their full role or use hasn’t been fully explored or understood which has led to sceptics expressing caution. This month Ray Dalio of Bridgewater Associates gave an interview to CNBC where he expressed his concern that Bitcoin (one of the leading cryptocurrencies) is a speculative market that was a bubble.


JPMorgan chief Jamie Dimon went even further, describing it as a fraud and warning that he’d fire any trader he caught buying or selling it.


But Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are necessary because people are losing trust in money, and while gold offers the sense of security people are looking for it lacks genuine usability.


And, if central banks start to invest in Bitcoin and other digital currencies it will increase their legitimacy to a wider number people in a short period of time.


Gold will be around for the next hundred years and beyond. However, it’s difficult to predict how long cryptocurrencies will be around. So, as a store of value, gold holds sway.


But gold’s value won’t increase dramatically in the next 2-3 years or beyond. Cryptocurrencies have and will continue to gain value.


So rather than seeing gold and cryptocurrencies as an either/or situation, it makes more sense to find a place for both in your portfolio when you trade them on FXB Trading and focus on finding a balance between the level personal goals and exposure and the level of acceptable risk.


They both provide a great opportunity to enhance your earning potential.

How to choose technology and industrial stocks

The common denominator for everyone who invests in stocks is to make predictions on the price evolution in order to capitalise on market movements and consequently make money. But how they go about it is dependent on how risk averse they are, and the time frame over which they want to realise profits.


Investing in the stock market is both an intellectual challenge and a reflection of your own character. Before you decide which stocks to pick you need to understand what kind of investor you are.


Growth investors tend to focus on a company’s potential for future profits, and whose earnings are rising the fastest. Since growth-oriented investors are interested in big future earnings, they are often willing to pay a high price for a stock relative to what it earns right now. The metric used to value stocks here is the price-to-earnings ratio (commonly referred to as the P/E).


Value investors hone in on the current value of a company’s assets (factoring in its debts), and look for stocks that are cheap compared to those assets. Optimistic forecasts for profits are less important for them so they end up buying stocks with lower P/E ratios.


Taking the value approach sounds like a more conservative approach, but there is the risk that these stocks go out of style for long periods of time.


What may have initially looked like a bargain may turn out to a bad investment which other investors avoided because they identified serious problems with the business.


That’s why solid research is critical when buying stocks, and the most common advice you’ll read about investing in stocks is to diversify.


Investing in stocks in a business sector about which you already have knowledge will usually result in better results than taking a punt on company based on a tip you’ve read about, but about which you know next to nothing.


The industrial sector is filled with companies whose names are familiar and whose products you may well own. They’re in construction, manufacturing, agriculture and transportation and include aerospace, defence and industrial machinery.


When picking a stock in this sector look for a company with a history of sustained profitability. If it has come through a recession and maintained profitability that’s a big plus.


Study the behaviour of the Board of Directors. If they’ve been able (and willing) to return excess capital to owners through dividends and share repurchases then they are worth considering.


Also, look out for companies with a competitive advantage, it usually means it’s harder for their competition to attack their market share.


For many the technology sector is a huge investment opportunity. It is the largest single segment of the market, eclipsing both the financial and industrial sector. But it is also the toughest to predict with any degree of long term certainty because it is the most highly competitive, where technological breakthroughs can render a product redundant and cause a stock to plummet.


Today’s game-changing innovation can quickly become yesterday’s obsolescence. It wasn’t so long ago that 640K of RAM was considered leading edge for personal computers and mobile phones the size of bricks were only seen in the hands of city slickers.


Since being founded in 1975 Microsoft has been written off as a force on numerous occasions. But a combination of diversification and technological advancement has seen it continue to dominate the market. Similarly, Apple’s obituary was penned in the 1990s, but they returned with a product that has arguably had the biggest effect on our lives in recent years.


Many investors simply avoid technology stocks entirely. The unpredictability makes it too risky a proposition. However, this cuts them off from one of the most dynamic engines to modern economies.


Compromise is the key, and finding a balance in your stock ownership to meet your needs.


Once you’ve picked your list of companies you’ll need their latest performance figures before making a decision on which to invest. Every major corporation is obliged by law to publicly declare their accounts – the information provided in their balance sheets and profit and loss accounts will provide critical information on whether it is the right time to invest in them.


To help your research there’s an excellent tool on FXB Trading which will help you find out the publication dates for this critical data (https://fxbtrading.com/ex-dividends-dates).


The ideal situation is to amass a collection of businesses that produce sufficient dividends to use to enjoy life. Some stocks you will buy at one price and quickly sell at another, in the hope of realising a decent profit. These will more often, but not always, be from the technology sector. Others are better owned for years as the underlying earnings per share continue to grow even while the stock price itself is volatile. Stocks like these are more often in the industrial sector, but again, they can be found elsewhere.


Avoiding a commitment to one single industry or company ensures that the risk is spread and that in the long-term your portfolio is able to ride the inevitable waves of volatility while still remaining a solid investment.


For advice on how to take advantage of price movements in technology and industrial shares, or on how to trade shares or currencies in general, talk to the experts at FXB Trading. Our platform makes it easy to start earning a second income with only a small investment in time and funds needed.


The FXB Trading team are on hand to teach its members any aspect of trading that they are interested in, and reveal how they make their living trading the world’s markets.

Did the markets miss what happened in Vegas?


It’s the morning after the Vegas shooting. Over 50 innocent lives lost in another act of random violence that has shocked every decent person to their core.


Everyone except the markets, it seems, despite it being the deadliest shooting in modern US history.


Predictably, gun stocks have soared while the value of MGM shares (the company that own the hotel chain that was the scene of the massacre) have plummeted.


But for Wall Street and the other markets it’s almost like it never happened.


But imagine yourself, if you can, in America’s playground today. What would you be doing?


How many people are out and about enjoying what makes Vegas what it is?


How many have decided to end their visit early and go home?


How many others have decided to cancel their trip to Sin City?


How much money that would have been spent in Vegas today and in the coming weeks is going to stay at home. Probably billions, but that disturbance to the economy is being treated like a scraped knee.


In Catalunya, violence during the referendum for independence from Spain saw 850 people injured. It also had a direct effect on the value of the Euro. It’s likely to have an ongoing influence on Euro/Dollar trading as the aftermath and implications of the Catalan vote are factored in.


It could be argued that the two events shouldn’t be compared. It’s a valid argument until the memory is cast back to how the markets reacted to the 9/11 attacks.


Every event that has a direct effect on the flow of a significant amount of money has an effect on the markets. It’s like taking some of the oxygen out of the air – it’s going to get harder to breathe.


Vegas is one of the US’s biggest tourist destinations. Over 250,000 people work in hotels, restaurants, bars and casinos in the area. An additional 100,000 jobs rely on tourism by providing services to the industry.


And yet CNBC decided a history of gun stocks value rising after shootings is the most significant aspect of the massacre to focus on.


The Wall Street Journal didn’t mention it at all on the front page of their website, but found space for effect of hurricane Maria on insurance.


CNN lead with the charitable donations big business were offering the grieving.


Las Vegas is going to be affected by this shooting because it relies on tourist arrivals. Last year 43 million people visited the city and they spent $35.5 billion. $1.4 billion of that is collected by state and local government in gaming and rooming taxes every year. But Reuters’ main finance story on the shooting was a video interview of New York University hospitality professor, Richie Karaburun, saying that there would be no impact on international travel to the city and only a very slight impact on the number of visitors who will go this weekend to Vegas.


Sometimes the news will help a trader make trades, on others, like today it doesn’t.


But you can be sure that the experts at FXB Trading have already factored in the effect of the tragic event that took place in Las Vegas on Sunday evening into their immediate trading strategy.


Seasoned traders don’t need a news report to tell them which way the markets are going to go, they create their own analysis and draw their own conclusions to events in order to stay profitable.


For advice on how to take advantage of price movements in shares, or on how to trade shares or currencies in general, talk to the experts at FXB Trading. Our platform makes it easy to start earning a second income with only a small investment in time and funds needed.


The FXB Trading team are on hand to teach its members any aspect of trading that they are interested in, and reveal how they make their living trading the world’s markets.

Traders cashing in on PayPal success


In his note to clients Faucette noted that the market may have been overly concerned about a potentially negative impact of renegotiation of its contract with eBay, and that PayPal is maintaining its massive acceptance as an e-commerce website over other digital wallets and that it is expected to benefit significantly from e-commerce tailwinds.


It looks like a great time for traders to start getting friendly with PayPal (PYPL) shares after Morgan Stanley’s James Faucette upped his price target to 76 from 62 along with a number of other analysts who are equally enthusiastic about the online payment service provider.

The above chart plots the increase in share value which has grown steadily from the beginning the year, and which is expected to continue after the third quarter earnings report is released.


In his note to clients Faucette noted that the market may have been overly concerned about a potentially negative impact of renegotiation of its contract with eBay, and that PayPal is maintaining its massive acceptance as an e-commerce website over other digital wallets and that it is expected to benefit significantly from e-commerce tailwinds.


What PayPal has over its competitors is consumer trust. It feels like it has been around for a long time, and that’s a priceless commodity in the e-commerce age.


Since its spin-off from former parent company eBay in 2015 PayPal has expanded into a payments service provider, incorporating mobile payments into its operations. It has also reaped the benefits of giving consumers more options at checkout by using credit cards following its online checkout deals with Visa and Mastercard in 2016.


Bernstein’s Lisa Ellis sees PayPal grabbing an even greater portion of the market over the next three years and her positive prognosis has been echoed by analysts at BTIG, Merrill Lynch and Barclays.


One area where more growth is possible for PayPal is by forming partnerships with retailers who are looking for ways to better compete with Amazon.


Deutsche Bank have described PayPal’s social payment app Venmo as its “crown jewel” which they believe will accelerate revenue growth in the coming months and years.


Buckingham Research initiated Paypal’s stock at buy, proclaiming that “nowhere are the prospects higher” in the payments arena – a ringing endorsement.


Many experts also see the contract renegotiation with eBay in 2020 as unlikely to have any significant impact on PayPal’s earnings. A continuation of their ongoing relationship as eBay’s preferred payment provider is highly likely as both companies benefit from each other, and even if the terms are less favourable, the American P2P market is predicted to triple in size by then which suggests PayPal will become far less reliant on eBay.


PayPal’s third quarter earnings report is just around the corner, making this a great opportunity for traders to take a position. This is no flash in the pan. PayPal has reported strong double-digit top-line growth for several years now, with a slight blip in earnings reported in the third quarter of 2015.


For advice on how to take advantage of PayPal’s share price movement, or on how to trade shares in general, talk to the experts at FXB Trading. Our platform makes it easy to start earning a second income with only a small investment in time and funds needed.


The FXB Trading team are on hand to teach its members any aspect of trading that they are interested in, and reveal how they make their living trading the world’s markets.

Buckle up the Tesla ride is going to be bumpy


This looks likethe time for traders to bet against Tesla (TSLA) shares in the short term as the market reacts to reports that Model 3 electric vehicle (EV) deliveries are going to be delayed with news stories about escalating production costs, production line issues and lay-offs throwing doubt on the company’s ability to turn a significant profit on its new model.

The chart above shows that after steep rise of 68% throughout the year the share price is showing signs of volatility.


Barclays were among the first to advise their clients to short Tesla with their analyst Brian Johnson suggesting a $210 price target – well below the $340 consensus on Wall Street.


Barclays feel Tesla’s November 19 announcement about truck production will be decisive in swaying investor confidence in the company.


Tesla are projecting production targets of several million per year in the near future as well as significant progress in other business opportunities like battery storage.


On the back of these projections some analysts have been uber-bullish about Tesla with Morgan Stanley’s Adam Jonas – who is widely followed on Wall Street – raising his 12-month price target from $317 to $379.


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Patience may pay off for General Electric traders

Many analysts expect General Electric (GE) to exceed their profit expectations when they post their third quarter earnings report on October 20, as it has done in eight of the last nine quarters. However, there is also a high expectation that its share price will fall as it has done for the past seven quarters after earnings results are released.


Fears over a dividend cut have eased since last week – which would have led to an investor exodus and a serious drop in share value – but there still seems to be a lot of work to do for recently appointed CEO John Flannery who is overseeing restructuring and reorganising efforts.


“A dividend cut could crush the stock as retail investors flee, but maintaining it gives GE little or no excess cash to grow,” Jeffrey Sprague, an analyst at Vertical Research Partners, said last week. “GE has continued to shrink the company but it has not proportionally shrunk the dividend.”


Moody’s Investors Service credit analyst Rene Lipsch told Reuters that GE’s options would narrow next year when it no longer receives billions from asset sales at GE Capital. Adding that, long term, the dividend “depends on Flannery’s ability to increase cash flow from the businesses.”


Flannery’s appointment has been followed by the announcements that its CFO was leaving the company along with news that two vice chairs were retiring which have been taken as a bad sign by analysts.


JPMorgan are one that hasn’t been impressed by the new appointments or restructuring at GE.


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Boeing share price soaring, but turbulence lies ahead

Boeing’s (BA) share price has risen an impressive 66% compared to this time last year, boosted by enthusiasm in the airline and defence markets. Increased travelling has had a positive effect on airline traffic, while rising international tensions have prompted countries to increase spending on defence.


But there is turbulence ahead for Boeing in the shape of increased competition in its biggest operating segment, airline business, which has yielded $65 billion of the company’s $95 billion total revenue over the last two years.


While this is unlikely to send Boeing’s share price into a tailspin, it might be expected to move sideways for the foreseeable future.


Airbus, Boeing’s main rival in the airline business, have traditionally made bigger planes and hadn’t been able to benefit from the recent downsizing trend in the airline industry and increased demand for smaller, more fuel-efficient planes.


However, now Airbus has taken a majority stake in Bombadier’s C series jet programme, and in an instant, has added a high-performing, smaller sized aeroplane to its range without incurring any acquisition costs.


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Virtual trading and the global economy

We have seen the rise of the virtual world in the twenty first century, which is a world that exists entirely on the internet. The currency that is used is known as bitcoin, but it does not possess any physical form. Bitcoin has now become a widely used currency, especially in China, the economic powerhouse. However, the lack of physical form makes bitcoin completely different to what money should be.


A long time ago, the value of money was exactly what it was made of. Gold coins were made, and their value depended on the amount of gold in circulation. Nowadays, most money is printed on paper, which does not have that much value. Therefore, the government can print as much money as it wants as long as it has the cheap materials needed to print the money.


Bitcoin is the next step in this worrying trend regarding the creation money. Bitcoins have no physical form, and they cost almost nothing to create. However, using bitcoin is very convenient as online transactions can be carried out using a currency which is suitable for expediting simple financial transactions.


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