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EUR/USD Technical Overview & Daily Chart

After a strong bullish moment for the euro, the price movement has lulled, though we predict it would recover.

Today for our analysis we would look into the current state of the EUR/USD currency pair.

In recent weeks the euro has gradually strengthened against the weakened American dollar. This is largely due to good economic data from Europe, on the one hand, and political instability in the United States, on the other. However, this week we saw some short-term losses for the EUR; still, it didn’t drop too much and was able to find a stable support level above 1.17, which is not bad at all.

The Euro still has the potential to resume its growth to the level of 1.18 that is so coveted by investors, but this might take some time, so we need to be patient.

We currently have the deciding pivot point at 1.1724. If the EUR/USD drops below it, we should keep our eyes on the nearby support levels at 1.1712, 1.1704, and 1.1692. In case the price moves beyond the pivot point, we can use the nearby resistance levels at 1.1732, 1.1744, and 1.1752 as guidance.

As of the moment of this article’s publication the EUR/USD is trading near the pivot point at around 1.1726. The technical indicators are unanimous in recommending a strong sell.

We have some fundamental releases from both the European Union and the United States today. In Europe we expect data on the French industrial production, as well as the trade balance of Italy. From the US we are waiting for the balance of the federal budget, the core PPI, the reserves of natural gas, unemployment, and other economic data. Because of these releases some moderate volatility can be expected in the pair today.


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The US vs. North Korea

The markets are shaken amid the rising tensions between the United States and North Korea.

While this week has been more or less quiet in terms of actual economic events affecting the financial markets, it was quite the opposite in terms of politics: this week US President Donald Trump made several controversial comments that sparked a discussion on whether the United States would be going to war with North Korea.

Needless to say, such major fundamental events always have an effect on the markets. In this particular case it was Asian stocks (particularly in South Korea, which is dangerously close to a potential war zone) that dropped significantly – now they seem more insecure than ever, and investors are directing their attention to other safe-haven instruments such as gold, the Swiss franc, and the Japanese yen.

The currency of Korea, the won, also suffered losses against the dollar, dropping to its lowest this month as a result of the growing tensions in the region.

Australian markets are also somewhat affected, while the state of the markets in Japan is unclear since the country was celebrating a holiday and the market was not open. The American stock market also suffered amid the news, as did the stock markets in London, Paris, and Frankfurt.

So, what happened exactly?

North Korea, which has been more active in its testing of military weapons over the past few years, announced its intentions to fire missiles into Guam, which is officially a US-controlled territory. It is important to note that the Korean war never officially ended, so at least on paper relations between the United States and North Korea are not good.

In recent months tensions with North Korea came to light also because the communist state released a prisoner who was an American citizen, who reached the US in a terrible physical state. The young man showed signs of extensive brain damage; his condition was so bad that it completely baffled American doctors, and he soon died. This story rattled the West and caused people to speculate that North Korea is up to something.

Instead of addressing North Korea’s plans of attack through the accepted diplomatic channels, Trump took to Twitter to talk about retaliation, and then reaffirmed in an interview that he is ready to go to war if North Korea does attack any American territories.

This newly-added level of serious political insecurity rattled the global financial markets. The dollar marked new decreases against the yen. In addition, the yen is gaining on the USD due to issues with the American treasury and a possible default coming in the next two to three months.

Clearly this is a complex issue. So far neither country has attacked, but considering that President Trump and Supreme Leader Kim Jong-un have got to be the two most unpredictable leaders in the world right now, tensions are definitely growing steadily. Make sure you watch out for any related news and see how the markets are responding as more information is flowing in.
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GBP/AUD Technical Outlook & H4 Chart

The bears are back this week to make new lows.

After the GBP/AUD recorded its highest level this year at 1.7647 in May, it turned back to decline by more than 1350 pips and it’s trading now at 1.6480. Today the Australian Dollar rose in the beginning of the week because of the tension between North Korea and the United States, in addition to China's foreign ministry saying there is no future in a China-U.S. trade war and adding that issues of trade and North Korea are not connected. The ministry also said that China pays great attention to protecting its intellectual property rights and says the essence of U.S.-China trade is mutually beneficial and a win-win.

The GBP/AUD currency pair is trading inside a downside price channel which may lead the pair to new lows this week. The pair’s trading between support and resistance areas representative at the trend lines and it’s expected that the pair will break the downside trend line to decline further. The moving average is trading above the prices which supports the negative vision, while the Stochastic indicator hasn't shown us the sell signal yet.

The Next Few Days

After we learned the outlook for the pair is down, we can take sell positions at the resistance levels, which means we can take sell positions now at the current level 1.6480, sell again if it reaches 1.6560, and place a third sell position at 1.6640, keeping our target for all of them at 1.6310.

This week the market has some hot news from the UK like the Average Earnings Index and the retail sales. In addition, we expect the Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes for the Australian bank and the Unemployment Rate.

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EUR/SGD: Fundamental Review & Forecast

We have an extremely rapid upward trend but it seems like the peak has been reached.

It is difficult to imagine a more rapid upward trend than we can see on the EUR/SGD chart. The Euro strengthened against many currencies, but this did not lead to such a significant increase relative to another currency. At the moment it is likely that the price has reached a peak, especially amid disappointing statistics from the Eurozone. This week the market received data that indicates slower economic growth in the EU. Germany's GDP in the 2nd quarter amounted to only 0.8% yoy, while the market expected a GDP growth of 1.9%. The volumes of industrial manufacturing in the Eurozone fell in June by 0.6%, although this is in line with expectations. The eurozone's GDP is only 0.6% in Q2, which is also in line with the expectation of investors.

Thus, the Euro doesn't have enough stimulus for growth. The Singapore dollar gets the opportunity to consolidate at least at the current levels and prevent a further falling in price. During the last five months the SGD has changed in price from 1.4845 EUR up to EUR 1.602. It should be noted that the Singapore dollar is now at the level of November 2015. This is another reason why we say that the peak has been reached.

Next week the Singapore dollar can be supported due to the release of new statistics about industrial production volumes for July and the consumer prices index. The latest data on the economy of Singapore is showing a pretty good economic situation: retail sales in June grew by 1.9% and continue to grow for the fourth consecutive month.
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USD/CHF Technical Analysis & Daily Chart

We forecast a bullish movement for the pair in the recent future.

Today we would focus our analysis on the USD/CHF currency pair. The price recently managed to reach areas above 0.9639, and we expect this bullish momentum to continue, possibly as fr as 0.9800.

After trading between 0.9639-0.9600 for several days (which are the 61.8% and 50% Fibonacci levels), the pair overcame this fluctuation and reached a new high at 0.9733. The old resistance at 0.9639 turned into a support level, while the pair acquired a new resistance at 0.9763 (which also helps to form a double top pattern on the chart).

Now the price of the USD/CHF can be seen oscillating between 0.9693 and 0.9763. It is demonstrating a markedly bullish character; the RSI indicator also agrees that the pair is located in a bullish trend.

This is why we expect that the USD/CHF would be able to break its nearby resistance level at 0.9763 and continue moving upward. Our next resistance today is located at 0.9800 and might also be tested, if the first one is successfully overcome. As long as the pair is able to stay above its older channel at 0.9639-0.9600, then expect further growth.

At the moment of this article’s publication the pair is trading around 0.9650 and most trading indicators show a strong sell suggestion.
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CAD/JPY: fundamental review and forecast


Positive economic data from Japan significantly impacted the rates. Seems like formation of the new upward trend.

The rates continue in the frames of the upward trend, but we can see on the chart formation of a weak downtrend. Formation of a new trend is based on the decreasing of oil prices and worsening of trade relations between the United States and Canada.
This week the Japanese yen continued to strengthen due to the positive data on the economy. The country's GDP unexpectedly grew in the 2nd quarter by 1%, while it was expected growth in just 0.6%. Such a growth is the most rapid growth in the Japan's economy since more than 2 years. we hadn't seen the same significant growth since the 1st quarter of 2015. In annual terms, GDP growth was +4%, exceeding forecasts in 1.5%. It should also be noted that Japan's GDP grew for the sixth quarter in a row. Consumer spending indicator increased by 0.9% in Q2, exceeding the expected level in almost 2 times. And the volume of industrial production in June rose by 2.2% amid expectations of 1.6%.

Thus, amid extremely positive statistics from Japan, it was very hard for canadian dollar to resist the yen. Strengthening of JPY would be even more rapid, but it was prevented by a factor of geopolitical tensions between the USA and North Korea, although the situation has been normalized to the usual level these week.

Today the market is waiting for information from Canada's index of consumer prices in July, but likely it's not necessary to expect for significant strengthening of the CAD, given that oil is decreasing again amid information about achieving of the maximum levels of shale oil extraction in the USA over the past 2 years. Crude oil stocks fell significantly this week, but the increase in oil production will lead to rapid recovery of oil reserves. In addition, analysts have lowered their forecasts about demand of oil in China. It should be noted that If China started a massive shift to electric transportation, in accordance with the global trend, it would negatively impact the demand for oil in this country in the future.

Oscillators MACD, Stochastics give contrary signals. In this situation, the most optimal would be to open the short deals upon medium term trading. For those who use short term strategies it's possible to open the deals to BUY, in accordance with Stochastics' signal making a profit on the price correction.
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Weekly Market Overview

An update on the Euro and the American dollar in light of recent events.

This week our gaze draws back to Europe. In our previous look at the euro we talked about how much it has strengthened this year, based on positive economic reports and favorable election outcomes. Let’s take a look at the situation in Europe now.

The euro has been the shining star of Forex trading this year, gaining a remarkable 11.5% on the USD so far in 2017. In recent weeks investors’ appetites towards the euro increased amid an expectation that the European Central Bank will change its monetary policy toward a less dovish approach that supports an even stronger euro. Some analysts have even suggested that we may see a parity between the EUR and the British pound in the coming months. However, ECB chief Mario Draghi has not given any real indication that he plans to cut the stimulus program anytime soon.

Now the euro is easing a little bit against the dollar as analysts prepare for the upcoming Jackson Hole conference on August 24-26, where Draghi will speak. The small drops in the price of the euro are likely a result of investors’ impatience regarding the ECB decision on monetary policy.

On Wednesday the euro dropped from its 2015 height level and went 2% down to 1.1691 USD and 1.13960 CHF.

Furthermore, the euro was able to gain on the dollar because of the political turmoil in the United States. Recent tensions with North Korea, as well as a neo-nazi attack both rattled the United States over the past two weeks. However, things seem to be cooling down with North Korea, and the US released some favorable data on retail sales (up by 0.6 in July) which helped the USD find a more solid ground. If the economy fares well and inflation increases, investors would again look to the dollar as an attractive trading instrument and expect the Federal Reserve to increase interest rates again.

However, economic data from the United States has fluctuated throughout 2017. Inflation and wage growth haven’t been at the expected levels, and the Federal Reserve has been extremely careful about adjusting its policies. This is why right now another rate hike is unlikely. Even if rates are increased in the coming months, analysts don’t expect multiple hikes, as was initially planned.


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AUD/JPY Technical Outlook & H4 Chart

We have a bearish reversal underway or possibly a buying opportunity.

The AUD/JPY currency pair sold off heavily this month following the retesting of the new area of resistance between 89.00 and 89.30 which we referred to in our last report about the pair. Last week the pair made a top smaller than the previous one, which means we are in a downside wave. We have to be careful because we recognized a bottom higher than the previous one, so that we have two trend lines - one for the uptrend and a second one for the downtrend.

The pair has a support area at 85.70-85.90. The prices reached it last week, so we can expect an upside movement this week, in addition to the pair reaching the 50% from the rising wave from 81.65 to 89.29. We can predict the pair will begin another series of impulse waves.

The Next Few Days

After we analyzed the chart well we can discover that we would work on the breaking out of the pair. If the AUD/JPY breaks the downtrend we will buy the pair and keep our targets at 88.20 and 89.05. Conversely, if it breaks the uptrend we will sell the pair and keep the target at 84.62 (61.8% Fibonacci). Still, we predict the pair will break the downtrend and rise again, so we can take buy positions now with a small lot at the current level 86.15 and keep the T/P level at 86.85, then wait for the breaking out.

This week the markets don’t offer any hot news from Australia or Japan but you have to be careful about any uncalendared news that can change the market direction.

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NZD/JPY: Short Review and Forecast
The downward trend was formed a month ago and continues amid positive economic news from Japan. The NZD is under the pressure of decreased prices for food and raw materials.

The rates of the NZD/JPY since the beginning of the month are in the frames of the downward trend formed just a month ago. Despite the recent positive data about economy of New Zealand, where we can see a Federal budget surplus by 1.5 billion NZD, the New Zealand currency fell against major currencies. At the same time, it should be noted that the NZD did not have enough incentives for growth amid the absence of news about the economy. In addition, the NZD was under the pressure of the decreased prices for raw materials and food, which reached annual minimums this week. The price for wheat fell from $560 down to $403. At the same time the JPY had many stimuli to strengthen.

The PMI index of business activity in August was 52.8 against the expected level of 52.3. The volume of imports and exports grew less than the expected - 16.3% versus 13.4%, respectively, and in the long term increased the pressure on the trade balance. However, in July the trade surplus in Japan narrowed by 17%, though it's 418 billion yen, exceeding the expectations of investors. A week earlier the yen strengthened due to the unexpected GDP growth by 1% and an increase in consumer spending which was almost twice higher than the market expectation. Therefore, the Japanese economy now looks better for investors.

Tomorrow the NZD may get a chance to strengthen, if new data about the trade balance of New Zealand pleases investors. At the moment, oscillators (MACD, Stochastics, RSI) unanimously point to the rates in the oversold zone. The deals to BUY would be the most effective in this situation. There's a possibility to make a profit on the expected price correction.

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The Dollar Moving Down

Amid the latest economic reports, the American currency is losing positions against all major currencies.

The dollar fell sharply against all major currencies after the labor market data release in the US, which was worse than expected. As reported by the US Department of Labor, last month 156,000 jobs were created, which is below the projected 180,000. The indicator for July was revised downwards from 209,000 to 189,000. The unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, instead of the previously forecasted 4.3%. All of this indicates a worsening of the situation on the labor market. The report also shows the average hourly rate grew by 0.1% in August, compared to the expected growth of 0.2%. One of the main indicators of inflation, the Core PCE, has decreased to 1.4%, while at the beginning of the year it was above 1.8%. Such statistics practically leaves no chance for another increase in the discount rate this year.

Federal Reserve representatives have expressed their concerns about the low dynamics of consumer prices over the recent months and its impact on the future monetary policy of the US Central Bank. Soon after the US statistics release, information from the ECB suddenly appeared. Sources in the European Central Bank, quoted by Bloomberg, declared that the plan for ending the quantitative easing program could be ready no earlier than December. "The politicians of the European Central Bank may not be ready to curtail the quantitative easing program until December," the sources said.

After the release of US statistics, the EUR/USD rose 0.5% to 1.1970, approaching a two-and-a-half-year high on Tuesday (1.2069), but after a verbal intervention by the ECB, it returned to 1.1900. Earlier the euro surrendered its position after reports about the increasing number of ECB officials who are concerned about the recent strengthening of the European currency.

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