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USD/MXN: Fundamental Review & Forecast

The MXN has achieved its April 2016 level, while the USD is losing positions due to the failure of the health care reform.

The rates of the USD/MXN pair continue in the frames of the downtrend which has lasted for more than six months, when the Mexican peso fell as a result of the presidential elections in the USA and D. Trump's anti-immigration protectionist policies openly directed against Mexico. Despite several factors against the Mexican peso, such as perspectives for lowering oil prices and the worsened relations between the U.S. and Mexico, the peso managed to recover its lost positions.


This week the MXN reached the level from April 2016 amid the rising oil prices and the failure of the health care reform in the United States. This points to the inefficiency and weakness of Donald Trump's administration. The failure of the health care reform threatens the further policies of Donald Trump and decreases his popularity in the United States. The US dollar was also negatively impacted by the cautious rhetoric of Yellen about a further tightening the FED policy. Also, amid disappointing data about inflation and retail sales, investors began to doubt whether we would see a further increasing of the interest rate this year.

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The Euro Back to 2015 Highs

The euro continues to take on the USD in a confident bullish movement.

This week we turn our eyes to Europe once more. The economic climate in the European Union seems to be quite heated these days: many reports coming from all around the eurozone are flooding in, and investors are paying close attention to the euro, particularly in the context of the much weaker dollar we’ve been seeing these days.

Earlier today the European Central Bank’s Survey of Professional Forecasters was published. The survey, which is quite important to the ECB and whose results always figure into the decision-making process of the ECB, showed that while there is stable economic growth and a decrease in the unemployment rate, the inflation rate still remains relatively low. As we’ve mentioned before on our blog, the ECB is currently in the midst of a massive stimulus program whose goal is to boost inflation to a healthy level. It appears this level still hasn’t been achieved, despite investors’ hopes that the ECB might be satisfied with the current progress and start turning towards more hawkish policies.


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USD/JPY Technical Overview ahead of the Fed Rate

The USD/JPY pair returned back to the channel and we expect further lows.

Last week the US Dollar was weaker against most of the majors, especially since there were few economic calendar events from the USA and investors focused instead on Washington’s rising political tensions. However, this week is different and trading will depend on fundamentals with the release of consumer confidence, the Fed’s July rate statement, and the preliminary second quarter gross domestic product (GDP).

The USD/JPY currency pair returned back to the price channel again after breaking it upward. We took a buy position and our first target was at 114.32 - the prices already hit it and returned again, then the pair broke the moving average last Friday. It has a key support area at 110.23, 50 pips down. The MACD indicator gave us the sell signal after the columns appeared below the zero level. It’s expected that the Fed will keep the interest rate unchanged this month and won’t increase it, so we predict the pair will decline further.

The Next Few Days

After we saw the prices back inside the channel again we can sell the pair from the current levels at 110.75 and keep our first target at 110.23, with a second one at 108.34 at this year’s low. Nevertheless, if the prices return back to 112.00 again we will change our vision to be bullish.

This week is overwhelming with much hot news from the United States which hold the potential to cause high volatility on the market: the CB Consumer Confidence, the FOMC statement, and the GDP for the second quarter.

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XAU/USD: Short Review and Forecast
The market has been extremely volatile the last few months. Investors are waiting for the results of the FED meeting. The GOLD has good chances to increase in price if the FED doesn't change the rate.

The Gold has been extremely volatile for the last few months. On the H4 chart we can see a large number of different micro trends that continually replace each other every month. This has created uncertainty on the market. Volatility is higher than ever: in just three months, the price varied in the range of 1216-1294 dollars. Overall, the trend looks flat, but with a huge range.


This week, the price achieved a monthly maximum, but decreased a bit because investors are awaiting the results from the Federal Reserve meeting held today. The Fed meeting will show if the interest rate is going to be increased or not. Investors suppose that interest rates are unlikely to be increased before December. Inflation in the United States was lower than expected for the fourth month in a row. Other economic indicators also do not impress the market. The Gold also has been rising in price due to the failure of the health care reform and the weakening of the USD.

Given that the Federal Reserve rate hike is unlikely in the near future, we expect a further increasing of Gold value, after the price correction. This also confirmed by the Stochastic oscillator, which indicates that the current rates are in the oversold zone. A further increase of the Gold's value will lead to the formation of a steady uptrend. Therefore, the deals to BUY can be considered as the most effective.

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CL/WTI: Short Review & Middle Term Forecast

After the depressed period we have an upward trend again and preconditions for further growth, given the long-term perspectives for increasing demand.

Between May and the end of June the market was depressed. Oil fell in price from $51 to $42. It seemed that the falling of oil prices is unstoppable. The oversupply of crude oil, the increase of oil extraction volumes even amid OPEC countries and the growth of oil reserves in the United States created a desperate situation, whereby market participants were unable to control the market and achieve a balance between demand and supply.

However, in July oil began to recover due to the reduction of oil stocks in the United States and the reduction of drilling activity. In addition, the oil recovered in price amid the long-term forecasts which show perspectives for growth in the demand for oil, although some analysts disagree with that. Nevertheless, given the recent data such as the index of business activity in China from Caixin, which marks the increasing of business activity, there are good preconditions for an increasing demand for raw materials in China. The decreasing in oil reserves in the United States will ease the pressure on the oil market for the next few months.

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In the near future the market will focus on the upcoming OPEC meeting, which will take place on August 7-8. The volatility over the past few months has remained very high, but it's decreasing. We can expect for sure a continuation of the rates in the frames of the current uptrend. After the price correction, prices may recover to the level of 50-51 dollars. The Stochastic oscillator also indicates a good time to open the deals to BUY on the trend.
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British Struggles

The fallout from Brexit is a deteriorating economic climate in the UK, and the British pound shows it.

Despite the unexpected strength of economic growth in Europe, the struggles of the United Kingdom continue. After the devastating losses incurred immediately before and after the Brexit referendum vote last summer and the disastrous elections results earlier this year, Britain and its currency still find themselves in a tight spot.

Yesterday we heard from the Bank of England, who this time announced that they are taking a more pessimistic prognosis of the UK’s economy and downgraded their forecasts for economic growth for 2017 and 2018 for the second time this summer. As a result, the British pound sterling suffered losses versus the American dollar of almost 1%.

The Bank of England’s stance is likely rooted in the disappointing wages. Since the pound slumped, goods imported to the United Kingdom naturally cost more for Brits, essentially driving their purchasing power lower. The BoE expects this problem to worsen in the future and is somewhat apprehensive regarding wage growth.

Bank of England governor Mark Carney expressed a concern for businesses who find it additionally difficult to invest amid the political struggle inside of the United Kingdom and the problematic negotiations with the European Union regarding Brexit.

The United Kingdom is currently lagging behind its European counterparts, and Carney expects an even slower economic growth. Needless to say, the bank chose not to increase interest rates yet, in hopes of stimulating the economy.

Despite the political discord within the United Kingdom due to Theresa May’s party failing to achieve a definitive majority in the preliminary parliamentary elections she called and the lack of strong British leadership that resulted from that, the UK has proceeded with the EU negotiations. However, even though negotiators have met several times now, not much has been decided, especially since the EU is putting pressure on the UK to meet its critical demands regarding immigration and payment.

Overall, the situation seems really unclear right now. British politicians are not helping much, as they provide contradictory statements from time to time, indicating the British government is not on the same page. The British pound has already dropped 13% since the Brexit vote, and due to the lack of proper leadership and the absence of clarity regarding the negotiations with the European Union we expect the GBP to continue its decrease versus major currencies.

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GBP/USD Technical Analysis & Daily Chart

After a series of sideways movements, we believe the GBP/USD would finally rebound from the support and turn bullish.

Today for our analysis we would look into the GBP/USD currency pair, which was moving sideways for some time but started going down after the American market open.

At this point the GBP/USD is headed for a steady decrease and would soon touch an area when we can start buying it safely. Of course, we should pay attention to key levels and use the support at 1.3006, which coincides with several Fibonacci factors, as guidance for our buy positions. For the upper limit of the reverse movement after touching the support, we need to focus on the resistance level at 1.3109.

In terms of technical indicators, we can very clearly see that the Stochastic one is playing with the support at 7.5%, which indicates that we would see a bullish turn soon, so we are expecting the price to rebound from the support up to the resistance we just mentioned above.

The most important thing about this pair today is that the level of 1.30 is a sort of a pivot point: if the pair drops below it, we should expect that the bears will dominate the market. However, as long as the GBP/USD rates remain above it, we can rely on the pair rebounding from the support and climbing up.

To sum up, we should place buy orders with a target of 1.3006 (our support level) and a take profit at 1.3109 (the resistance level). Just to be safe, we should also indicate our stop-loss at 1.2954.


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NZD/USD: Fundamental Review & Forecast


The support line is moving down and the upward trend is weakening while the market is waiting for the RBNZ decision about the rate change and monetary policy.

Since May the rates of the NZD/USD had been in the frames of an upward trend which is based on the weakened U.S. dollar. Now the market is almost frozen while waiting for the RBNZ's interest rate decision and the monetary policy report of the Central Bank.


In the beginning of the month the NZD rate reached the level of May 2015, but then began decreasing to more reasonable levels because the value of the NZD seems overrated, given the worsening economic situation in the country and unconvincing economic statistics.

Overall, we can definitely say there is a lack of incentives for the NZD to strengthen. In addition, the RBNZ has repeatedly stated that they're not interested in a strong currency rate. Investors are confident that the RBNZ will leave interest rates unchanged. Therefore, the probability of a further decreasing of the NZD is very high. The only thing we can expect that can help the NZD to remain at the same high level would be a significant easing in the monetary policy of the RBNZ. We can even expect some price hikes during the period of news from the RBNZ tonight.

This is a rare case when we have to ignore all oscillators (Stochastic, MACD, RSI), which unanimously indicate a signal about the oversold zone and a good moment for the deals to BUY. Because of the given the fundamental factors, there is a high probability for a further decreasing of the NZD/USD rate to the level of 0.72 USD. The support line has already started to shift down, so the deals to SELL seem much more effective. Nevertheless, it is too early to speak about the trend reversal, but it's safe to talk about the weakening of the current uptrend.

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