Thread: Adamant Finance - Daily Analysis

Technical Outlook August 17, 2016



EURUSD





EUR/USD grew sharply during Asian session and established new two months’ highs during European session. This rise was evoked by the better than expected Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment data released yesterday. There was no opportunity to open long trades according to our recommendations as the price did not correct to the necessary area. US data was disappointing and we advise to wait until today’s FOMC meeting minutes.

The neutral trend is still in progress on the Weekly chart as the price is balancing around the MA55. Trend lines were broker through and if the price is able to holds its current positions, there is a possibility of growth towards 1,15000.

There is the uptrend on the Hourly chart as the MA-channel goes upwards and the price is above the MA55. We advise to consider long trades from the MA55 if the price goes back to the curve.



GBPUSD





There was an opportunity to enter short trades from the MA55 according to our recommendations. The price went down for about 300 points offering a possibility to move stop orders to the breakeven level. Those stops triggered and GBP/USD went upwards on better than expected UK CPI data and worse than forecasted US inflation statistics. Today we recommend paying attention to the US FOMC Meeting Minutes.

There is the downtrend on the Weekly chart as the price is below the MA55. GBP/USD is still developing the downside tendency.

There is the uptrend on the Hourly chart as the MA-channel goes upwards and the price is above the MA55. We advise to place long orders from the MA55 area.



AUDUSD





AUD/USD moved different directions during yesterday. Short trades failed to bring some profit. Today the currency pair tries to break through the trendline on the Hourly chart. We advise to avoid trading today and wait for today’s FOMC Meeting Minutes. WE expect the situation to be more clear after that release.

The uptrend is still progressing on the Weekly chart as the price is above the MA55. The currency pair reached the trendline and went down. We expect this dynamics to continue this week.

There is the uptrend on the Hourly chart as the MA-channel goes upwards although the price is below the MA55. We advise to avoid trading AUD/USD today.



USDCHF





USD/CHF traded according to the pattern for short positions from 0,97000/0,97100. It is time to take a pause in trading as investors wait for the FOMC Meeting Minutes release. If you have any open positions, it is the right time to close them.

The neutral trend is still in progress on the Weekly chart as the price is balancing around the MA55. USD/CHF traded according to our expectations last week. This week we expect the opposite fluctuations.

There is the downtrend on the Hourly chart as the MNA-channel looks downwards and the price is below the MA55. We recommend avoiding trading today.



Official website: http://www.adamantfinance.com




Gold/Silver Technical Outlook August 17, 2016



GOLD (XAUUSD)





XAU/USD Has some difficulties in breaking through the trendline on the Weekly chart. You may see that the price went back to its previous positions after yesterday’s upside momentum. There is a probability that today’s FOMC Meeting Minutes release will provoke XAU/USD growth.

The uptrend is in progress on the Weekly chart as the price is above the MA55. Another attempt to break through the trendline may succeed.

There is no trend on the Hourly chart as the MA-channel is horizontal and the price is close to the MA55. We advise to avoid trading today because of the FOMC Meeting Minutes release.



SILVER (XAGUSD)





XAG/USD failed to grow although US inflation data was worse than expected. We think that the market waits for today US FOMC Meeting Minutes release. Interest rates growth expectations remain unchanged at 50%.

There is the uptrend on the Weekly chart as the price is above the MA55. The precious metal trades within the 19,30-20,40 range. There is a probability that XAG/USD goes to the lower side of the range and breaks it through this week.

There is no trend on the Hourly chart as the MA-channel is horizontal and the price is close to the MA55. We advise to avoid trading today.



Official website: http://www.adamantfinance.com/

Technical Outlook August 18, 2016



EURUSD





EUR/USD traded in a tight range on the eve of the FOMC Meeting Minutes. The currency pair went down right after the release of the Minutes and reached the MA55, allowing to open long trades according to our recommendations. However, the investors changed their mind then as the Minutes did not give any hint on the probability of interest rates growth this year. Fed is going to assess economic growth and inflation to take further decisions. EUR/USD did about 500 pips as result of yesterday’s fluctuations. We advise to pay attention to the EU inflation data and ECB Meeting Minutes today.

There is no trend on the Weekly chart as the price is balancing around the MA55. Thend lines were broken through and if the price holds those levels there is a probability of growth towards 1,15000 in the upcoming weeks.

The uptrend is in progress on the Hourly chart as the MA-channel goes upwards and the price is above the MA55. We advise to open long trades from the MA55 today or hold yesterday’s long trades if you did not fix them.



GBPUSD





GBP/USD went down to the MA55 right after the FOMC Meeting Minutes release. There was a good opportunity to open long trades according to our recommendations. You could earn about 1000 pips. Today there is a probability of the currency pair growth to continue if UK Retail Sales data is better than expected. Otherwise, GBP/USD may decline sharply.

The downtrend is still in progress on the Weekly chart as the price is below the MA55. GBP/USD meet a strong resistance and the downside tendency may resume.

There is the uptrend on the Hourly chart as the MA-channel goes upwards and the price is above the MA55. We advise to open long trades from the MA55 area. Place stops below the MA55.



AUDUSD





AUD/USD declined yesterday but went upside today in the morning right after the Australia Labor Market data release. However, there is still no trend. AUD/USD is fluctuating in a wide range. We advise to avoid trading today.

There is the uptrend on the Weekly chart as the price is above the MA55. AUD/USD reached the main trendline and then reversed downwards. This dynamics may continue this week.

There is no trend on the Hourly chart as the MA-channel is horizontal although the price is above the MA55. We advise to avoid trading today.



USDCHF





USD/CHF declined yesterday in the final minutes of Wednesday. The currency pair is close to a very important weekly support (trendline). Here is the main reason why USD/CHF is not able to go down further. If USD losses significantly its positions, the currency pair may cross this support.

There is no trend on the Weekly chart as the price is fluctuating around the MA55. The situation completely met our expectations last week. We expect the situation to be opposite this week.

There is the downtrend on the Hourly chart as the MA-channel looks downwards and the price is below the MA55. We advise to avid trading today in the morning.



Official website: http://www.adamantfinance.com/




Gold/Silver Technical Outlook August 18, 2016



GOLD (XAUUSD)





XAU/USD traded in a tight range on the eve of the FOMC Meeting Minutes release. However, Gold resumed its growth right after the event and it may continue today as there are no signs of interest rates growth in the nearest future. Interest rates futures shows the decline of expectations in rates growth in September from 18 to 12%. This may indicate on further uptrend in XAU/USD.

There is the uptrend on the Weekly chart as the price is above the MA55. Another attempt to break through the trend line may be successful.

There is the uptrend on the Hourly chart as the MA-channel goes upwards and the price is above the MA55. WE advise to open long trades from the MA55 area. Place stops below the MA55.



SILVER (XAGUSD)





XAG/USD continued to trade with negative dynamics on the eve of the FOMC Meeting Minutes release. It change the direction right after the event. We expect the price to be in the positive area today. However, we recommend avoiding trading at the moment.

The uptrend is in progress on the Weekly chart as the price is above the MA55. XAG/USD is trading within the 19,30-20,40 range. We expect it to go down to the lower side of the range and to break it through this week.

There is no trend on the Hourly chart as the MA-channel is horizontal and the price is close to the MA55. We advise to avoid trading today.



Official website: http://www.adamantfinance.com/

Technical Outlook August 19, 2016



EURUSD





EUR/USD continued its positive dynamics regardless a weak Eurozone inflation data and ECB aspiration to monetary policy easing. The currency pair growth is influenced mostly by the weakness of the US dollar as the situation with interest rates rise in USA is unclear. The price did not reach the balance line and there was no opportunity to buy from the MA55. However, if you still hold your previous long trades, you could get some additional profit. Today we expect weak dynamics as there is no important data.

There is no trend on the Weekly chart as the price is balancing around the MA55. Trend lines were broken through and if the price holds on those levels, there is a probability of growth towards 1,15000 in the upcoming weeks.

The uptrend is in progress on the Hourly chart as the MA-channel goes upwards and the price is above the MA55. We expect some correction or flat trading today and advise to avoid trading.



GBPUSD





GBP/USD rallied on the better than expected UK Retail Sales data. There was no opportunity to buy from the MA55 as the price did not go there anymore. We expect weak dynamics today as there is no important data to be released.

There is the downtrend on the Weekly chart as the price is below the MA55. GBP/USD met a serious resistance and it may resume its downside tendency.

There is the uptrend on the Hourly chart as the MA-channel goes upwards and the price is above the MA55. We expect a correction or a flat trading today. It is better to avoid trading in this case.



AUDUSD





AUD/USD traded in both directions yesterday regardless the USD decline and Oil prices growth. The currency pair continues to trade within a very large range approaching a very important obstacle on the Weekly chart. AUD/USD declined to a lower side of the range today in the morning. We advise to avoid trading on Friday.

The uptrend is still in progress on the Weekly chart as the price is above the MA55. The currency pair reached the goal at the main trendline and then reversed. We expect this dynamics to continue this week.

There is no trend on the Hourly chart as the MA-channel is horizontal although the price is below the MA55. It is better to avoid trading on Friday.



USDCHF





USD/CHF declined in the last minutes of Thursday and crossed an important support line on the Weekly chart (it broke through the trendline). If the currency pair ends the week below the trendline, there is a probability of further decline during a couple of weeks.

There is no trend on the Hourly chart as the price is fluctuating around the MA55. We predicted fluctuations last week and we expect USD/CHF to move in the opposite direction this week.

There is the downtrend on the Hourly chart as the MA-channel looks downwards and the price is below the MA55. We advise to avoid trading today.



Gold/Silver Technical Outlook August 19, 2016



GOLD (XAUUSD)





XAU/USD traded in both directions and declined to the balance line allowing to open long trade according to our recommendation. The price then went up offering an opportunity to move stops to the breakeven level in order to protect your trades. However, stops triggered as the market was unable to move higher from the current levels. There is a probability of a negative dynamics as the price may decline after an unsuccessful attempt to go upwards.

There is the uptrend on the Weekly chart as the price is above the MA55. Another attempt to break through the trendline may be successful.

There is no trend on the Hourly chart as the MA-channel is horizontal and the price is close to the MA55. We advise to avoid trading today.



SILVER (XAGUSD)





Silver slides down. XAG/USD is unable to move higher. This may result in a descending dynamics in the nearest future. It is one of the market’s rule when the price is unable to grow, it starts to go down. We advise to avoid trading today.

There is the uptrend on the Weekly chart as the price is above the MA55. XAG/USD traded within the 19,30-20,40 range as we predicted previously. This week we expect the price to decline towards the lower side of the range with further breakthrough.

There is the downtrend on the Hourly chart as the MA-channel goes downwards and the price is below the MA55. We advise to avoid trading today.

Technical Outlook August 22, 2016



EURUSD





EUR/USD traded according to our expectations on Friday. There was a downside correction during Asian session and then a weak dynamics after an active growth on Thursday. We advise to pay attention to the Ifo Business Climate data and Janet Yellen speech at Jackson Hole Symposium. Those events will take place on Thursday and Friday. As for the first half of this week, we expect some further correction.

The uptrend is in progress on the Weekly chart as the price is above the MA55. New week promises to be corrective after a sharp momentum, that we have seen the last week. There is a high probability of getting 1,15000 in the next couple of weeks.

There is the uptrend on the Hourly chart as the MA-channel goes upwards and the price is below the MA55. There is a probability of reverse and we do not advise to open long trades. We recommend observing the trendline. If it is broken through, the reverse will be confirmed. Then, you may consider short trades.



GBPUSD





GBP/USD declined on Friday as result of announcements that UK is going to leave the European Union in the first half of 2017. The currency pair lost more than 1000 pips. This event was unexpected. The main statistics is to be released on Friday that is why we recommend paying attention to USD fluctuations.

There is the downtrend on the Weekly chart as the price is below the MA55. GBP/USD may decline below 1,30000 this week.

There is the uptrend on the Hourly chart as the MA-channel looks upwards, although the price is below the MA55. We expect GBP/USD to change the current tendency and we advise to avoid long trades. The breakthrough of the trendline tells us about a high probability of reverse as well as the current pattern. You may try short trades from the current levels or closer to the MA55.



AUDUSD





AUD/USD traded close to the lower side of the two-weeks range and there is a high probability of a breakthrough with further downside tendency. There is no important data to follow this week and we recommend paying attention to USD.

There is still the uptrend on the Weekly chart as the price is above the MA55. Second Doji on the Weekly chart tells us about a struggle for this resistance level. The price is unable to cross the resistance which may result in reverse of the tendency.

There is the downtrend on the Hourly chart as the Ma-channel goes downwards and the price is below the MA55. We advise to open short trades from 0,76000.



USDCHF





USD/CHF closed last week above the weekly trendline. The price is unable to cross this line and this may result in a change of the current tendency. We expect the currency pair to grow regardless the fact that USD/CHF is still in the downtrend.

There is no trend on the Weekly chart as the price is fluctuating around the MA55. USD/CHF closed above the trendline which may result in further growth of the currency pair.

There is the downtrend on the Hourly chart as the MA-channel looks downwards although the price is above the MA55. A sharp price growth may change the tendency. We advise to avoid short trades. We recommend also following the trendline. If it is broken through, the tendency will change and then you may try short trades.



Gold/Silver Technical Outlook August 22, 2016



GOLD (XAUUSD)





Gold was unable to renew highs and reversed downwards according to our expectations. A pattern fo further downside tendency is forming. The price went down today in the morning and this process may accelerate. The main event of the week to pay attention to is the Fed Head’s Yellen speech at Jackson Hole Symposium.

There is the uptrend on the Weekly chart as the price is above the MA55. Another attempt to break through the trendline failed. This may lead to further price decline.

There is the downtrend on the Hourly chart as the MA-channel goes downwards and the price is below the MA55. We advise to open short trades from 1338,00.



SILVER (XAGUSD)





XAG/USD accelerated its decline on Friday and opened with a gap today in the morning. We expected this situation. Unfortunately, there was no opportunity to open trades. It is too risky to enter the market at the moment.

There is the uptrend on the Weekly chart as the price is above the MA55. Silver declined to the lower side of the 19,30-20,40 range and crossed it today in the morning.

There is the downtrend on the Hourly chart as the MA-channel goes downwards and the price is below the MA55. XAG/USD is out of the MA-channel and we advise to avoid trading today.

Technical Outlook August 23, 2016



EURUSD





There was no breakthrough of the trendline yesterday. The tendency is neutral at the moment. Investors are waiting for the Fed Head’s speech or other important data which is to be released this week. It is possible that the currency pair will be in this neutral position for the whole week. Today some important data from Eurozone and USA is to be released. Those statistics may bring some action to trading.

There is the uptrend on the Weekly chart as the price is above the MA55. This week may be corrective after some sharp growth during the last 5 days. There is a high probability of EUR/USD to grow towards 1,15000.

There is no trend on the Hourly chart as the MA-channel is horizontal and the price is close to the MA55. We advise to avoid trading today.



GBPUSD





GBP/USD had some growth after the announcement that British government prepares some measures to support the construction sector. If you opened sort trades, they were unsuccessful. However, GBP/USD is trading just below the trendline and the MA-channel prepares to change its direction. If 1,30800 is broken through, there is a high possibility of further downtrend to develop.

There is the downtrend on the Weekly chart as the price is below the MA55. The currency pair may go down below 1,30000 this week.

There is no trend on the Hourly chart as the MA-channel is horizontal and the price is above the MA55. We expect the current tendency to change and we advise to avoid long trades. You may try to open short positions when the price crosses 1,30800. Place stops above the MA55.



AUDUSD





AUD/USD made a fake breakthrough of the trendline during Asian session. The short positions from 0,76000 were unsuccessful. However, stop orders were close and we advise to reenter the market when the price crosses 0,76000. There is no important data from Australia this week. It means that you have to pay attention to USA statistics and events.

There is still the uptrend on the Weekly chart as the price is above the MA55. Second Doji on the Weekly tells us that there is a struggle close to this resistance level. The price is unable to cross it. This fact may result in a change of the tendency.

There is the downtrend on the Hourly chart as the MA-channel goes downwards and the price is close to the MA55. WE advise to open short trades when the price crosses 0,76000.



USDCHF





The currency pair has changed its tendency on the Hourly chart. There was no opportunity to open long trades. Today you may try to buy regarding the probability of the trendline breakthrough. Place small stops.

There is no trend on the Weekly chart as the price is fluctuating around the MA55. USD/CHF closed last week above the trendline and the upside tendency may continue.

The uptrend is in progress on the Hourly chart as the MA-channel looks upwards and the price is above the MA55. We advise to open long trades from the MA55 area placing stops below this curve.




Gold/Silver Technical Outlook August 23, 2016



GOLD (XAUUSD)





There was an opportunity to open short trades from 1338,00 with stop above the MA55. You may try to protect your positions soon, moving stops to a breakeven level. If XAU/USD continues to decline today, you may get some good profit. There is also a probability, that the price will trade into a range before the Fed Head’s Yellen speech during Jackson Hole Symposium.

There is the uptrend on the Weekly chart as the price is above the MA55. Another attempt to break through the trendline failed and XAU/USD may decline.

There is the downtrend on the Hourly chart as the MA-channel goes downwards and the price is below the MA55. We advise to hold short trades from 1338,00. There is another opportunity to sell from 1338,00.



SILVER (XAGUSD)





XAG/USD traded in a tight range approaching the balance line. The price may go back to 19,50 and resume its decline then. Anyway, it is better to avoid trading at the moment.

There is the uptrend on the Weekly chart as the price is above the MA55. Silver went down to the lower side of the 19,30-20,40 area and crossed it today in the morning.

There is the downtrend on the Hourly chart as the MA-channel goes downwards and the price is below the MA55. The price is still far from the balance line and we advise to avoid trading.

Technical Outlook August 24, 2016



EURUSD





EUR/USD still holds neutral position. US New Home Sales data was rather strong and gave some support to USD. The currency pair tests the trendline at the moment on the Hourly chart. However, the breakthrough of the trendline during the Asian Session may be fake. We advise to pay attention to US Existing Home Sales data today as USD may be given some more support like it was yesterday.

The uptrend is in progress on the Weekly chart as the price is above the MA55. A correction is possible after some sharp momentum last week. There is a high probability of growth towards 1,15000 in the next couple of weeks.

There is no trend on the Hourly chart as the MA-channel is horizontal and the price is below the MA55. We advise to avoid trading today.



GBPUSD





GBP/USD continued its growth. There was no opportunity to open trades as the price did not reach the key level for short positions. The currency pair moves right below the trendline on the Hourly chart and we expect this dynamics to continue today as we see the uptrend. There is still some space for further growth towards 1,33000 regarding the Weekly chart.

There is the downtrend on the Weekly chart as the price is below the MA55. The currency pair may decline to 1,30000 this week.

The uptrend is in progress on the Hourly chart as the MA-channel goes upwards and the price is above the MA55. You may try long trades from 1,31500 today. Place stops below the MA55.



AUDUSD





There was no decline below 0,76000 to open short trades according to our recommendations. The trend is neutral at the moment. The situation may remain unclear until the Fed Head’s Yellen speech which is to take place on Friday. This event may determine further direction of fluctuations.

There is still the uptrend on the Weekly chart as the price is above the MA55. Second Doji on the Weekly chart tells us that there is a struggle close to the resistance level. The price is unable to cross this level which may result in a change of the current tendency.

There is no trend on the Hourly chart as the MA-channel is horizontal and the price is close to the MA55. We advise to avoid trading today.



USDCHF





USD/CHF broke through the trendline according to our expectations. You could open long trades from the MA55. Stop should be placed at 150 pips from the order as there is no sense to place it closer regarding this currency pair. This position could bring you some profit. You could move stops to a breakeven level and hold the trade.

There is no trend on the Weekly chart as the price is fluctuating around the MA55. USD/CHF closed above the trendline and the uptrend may continue.

There is the uptrend on the Hourly chart as the MA-channel looks upwards and the price is above the MA55. We advise to hold long trades.




Gold/Silver Technical Outlook August 24, 2016



GOLD (XAUUSD)





XAU/USD remains calm on the eve of the Fed Head’s Yellen speech which is to take place on Friday. Short trade from 1338,00 failed to bring profit and stops triggered (if you had placed it right above the MA55). Unfortunately, this downside tendency stopped. XAU/USD fluctuates in a range at the moment and we advise to avoid trading.

There is the uptrend on the Weekly chart as the price is above the MA55. Another attempt to break through the trendline failed. This may lead to a change in tendency.

There is the downtrend on the Hourly chart as the MA-channel goes dowawards and the price is close to the MA55. We advise to avoid trading today.



SILVER (XAGUSD)





XAG/USD almost reached the balance line and then moved downwards without making new weekly low. Today the price goes back in the upside direction without any desire to develop the tendency. It seems that we have a range in which the price will be during the next couple of days.

There is the uptrend on the Weekly chart as the price is above the MA55. XAG/USD went to the lower side of the 19,30-20,40 range and crossed it today in the morning.

There is the downtrend on the Hourly chart as the MA-channel goes downwards and the price is close to the MA55. We advise to avoid trading today.

Technical Outlook August 25, 2016



EURUSD





EUR/USD declined yesterday although GBP/USD grew and Australian dollar was in a range. WE advise to pay attention to Ifo German Business Climate data which is to be released today. This statistics may give some additional support to EUR. It is to say that EUR/USD decline was also a result of fixing long trades on the eve of today’s Fed Head’s Yellen speech. There is a probability of sharp moves during this event and we give no trading recommendations as it is better to open positions after the speech.

There is the uptrend on the Weekly chart as the price is above the MA55. As we have previously mentioned, EUR/USD is in correction at the moment after a sharp upside momentum last week. There is a high probability of further growth towards 1,15000 in the next couple of weeks.

The downtrend is in progress on the Hourly chart as the MA-channel goes downwards and the price is below the MA55. We advise to wait for the Yellen speech to end until taking any decision if the price comes closer to the balance line.



GBPUSD





GBP/USD continued its growth according to our expectations. There was no opportunity to open long trade as the price did not reach 1,31500. We expect the upside dynamics to end today as the correction pattern was formed on the chart in the morning. We advise to avoid trading GBP/USD today before the Yellen speech as any movement is possible.

There is the downtrend on the Weekly chart as the price is below the MA55. We expect GBP/USD to go down to 1,30000 this week.

The uptrend is in progress on the Hourly chart as the MA-channel goes upwards and the price is above the MA55. We advise to wait until the end of Yellen speech to take any decision. It is better to open trades if price moves closer to the balance line.



AUDUSD





AUD/USD is still trading close to the key area at 0,75850/76000. The currency pair waits for the Fed Head’s Yellen speech which is to take place today in the evening. Market participants will pay attention to the event hoping for some new hints on the probability of monetary policy changes in the nearest future.

There is the uptrend on the Weekly chart as the price is above the MA55. Second Doji on the Weekly chart indicated on a struggle close to the resistance level. The price is unable to cross the level and may reverse downside.

There is no trend on the Hourly chart as the MA-channel is horizontal and the price is close to the MA55. We advise to wait for the Fed Head’s speech which is to be held today. If there is any movement after the event, you may take trading decisions close to the balance line.



USDCHF





USD/CHF continued to grow. We advised to hold long trades and it was a good decision. Long positions were opened at 0,97000/97100. Price reached 0,97800 and even went higher yesterday. You could fix some profit. If you still have long trades, we advise to close them as today’s event may lead USD/CHF in any direction.

There is no trend on the Weekly chart as the price is fluctuating around the MA55. USD/CHF closed above the trendline and the currency pair may continue to grow.

There is the uptrend on the Hourly chart as the MA-channel looks upwards. The price is above the MA55. We advise to wait until the Fed Head’s speech ends in order to take any decision. You may try then to open trades from the balance line.




Gold/Silver Technical Outlook August 25, 2016



GOLD (XAUUSD)





Gold declined on the fears of market participants of the upcoming speech of the Fed’s Head. Investors fixed partially their positions on the eve of the event protecting themselves from the unpredictable fluctuations. Anything may happen during this speech. This will depend on what Janet Yellen is going to say about Fed’s future monetary policy changes.

There is the uptrend on the Weekly chart as the price is above the MA55. Another attempt to break through the trendline failed. This fact may lead to further decline as the price is unable to cross the important level.

There is the downtrend on the Hourly chart as the MA-channel goes downwards and the price is below the MA55. We advise to wait until Fed’s Head speech ends before taking any decision. There is a probability of high volatility. It is better to enter trades close to the balance line.



SILVER (XAGUSD)





XAG/USD broke through the lower side of the range on fears. Investors are afraid of the upcoming event and all trades were fixed.

There is the uptrend on the Weekly as the price is above the MA55. XAG/USD went down to the lower side of the19,30-20,40 range and crossed it finally today in the morning.

There is the downtrend on the Hourly chart as the MA-channel goes downwards and the price is below the MA55. We advise to wait until the end of today’s event in order to take any further decision. You may open trades if the price goes closer to the balance line.

Technical Outlook August 26, 2016



EURUSD





Yesterday’s EU and US data had almost no impact on EUR/USD. German Ifo Business Climate was worse than expected as the final figure declined to 106,2. As for US Durable Goods Orders, this macroeconomic indicator increased to 1,5% from 0,4% last time. However, market participants wait for Yellen’s speech that is to take place today (we expected it yesterday).

It means that there is a possibility of high volatility during the event. We give no recommendations as it is necessary to open trades right after the event.

The uptrend is in progress on the Weekly chart as the price is above the MA55. We have seen a correction this week after a sharp momentum. However, the probability of reaching 1,15000 in the next couple of weeks is still too high.

There is the downtrend on the Hourly chart as the MA-channel goes downwards and the price is close to the MA55. We recommend waiting for Yellen’s speech before taking any decision. If it results in a tendency, we advise to open trades as close to the balance line as possible.



GBPUSD





GBP/USD formed a downside correction according to our expectations. Yesterday’s pattern did its job. We expect any fluctuations during today’s Yellen speech. In addition, we advise to pay attention to UK Second Estimate GDP and US Prelim GDP for second quarter. Bloomberg experts forecast that UK data will remain unchanged. US Prelim GDP data may show minor decline to 1,1% from 1,2% previous estimate.

There is the downtrend on the Weekly chart as the price is below the MA55. The currency pair may decline below 1,30000 this week if Yellen’s speech impresses investors.

There is no trend on the Hourly chart as the MA-channel is horizontal and the price is close to the MA55. We advise to wait until the end of Yellen’s speech to take decision. In case of any movement, we recommend opening trades from the balance line (or close to the area).



AUDUSD





AUD/USD continued to fluctuate close to the key area at 0,75850/76000. Investors wait for the Yellen’s speech for further actions. The market participants will pay attention to what the Fed Head’s is about to say expecting for new hints on the probability of Interest Rates rise this year.

There is the uptrend on the Weekly chart as the price is above the MA55. Second Doji on the Weekly chart confirms a struggle close to the resistance level. The price is unable to cross the resistance and may change the direction to downwards.

There is no trend on the Hourly chart as the MA-channel is horizontal and the price is close to the MA55. We recommend waiting until the end of the Fed Head’s speech to take any decisions. If there is any movement, open trades close to the balance line.



USDCHF





USD/CHF has done another upside momentum. Yesterday’s high were renewed for a couple of pips. The decision to fix positions was taken in the right time. The growth is slowing down telling us that the tendency is running out. The currency pair may decline according to the technical analysis. However, today we advise to pay attention to fundamental factors (Janet Yellen’s speech).

There is no trend on the Weekly chart as the price is fluctuating around the MA55. USD/CHF closed above the trendline and may continue its growth.

There is the uptrend on the Hourly chart as the MA-channel looks upwards and the price is above the MA55. We advise to wait until the end of Yellen’s speech to take further decisions. If there is any movement, try to open trades close to the balance line.




Gold/Silver Technical Outlook August 26, 2016



GOLD (XAUUSD)





XAU/USD declined a little on Thursday waiting for the Fed Head’s speech. However, Yellen had no speech on yesterday. We advise to pay attention to this event today. If there is any hint on the probability of Interest Rates growth this year, USD may get some additional support. According to futures, this probability grew to 57%.

There is the uptrend on the Weekly chart as the price is above the MA55. Another attempt to break through the trendline failed. This may lead to further price decline.

There is the downtrend on the Hourly chart as the MA-channel goes downwards and the price is below the MA55. We recommend waiting until the end of Yellen’s speech to take any decision. If there is any movement, open trades as close to the balance line area as possible.



SILVER (XAGUSD)





XAG/USD held its positions at the same level awaiting for the Fed Head’s Yellen speech. The situation is the same and we advise to wait until the end of the event today.

There is the uptrend on the Weekly chart as the price is above the MA55. XAG/USD went down to the lower side of the 19,30-20,40 range and broke it through.

There is the downtrend on the Hourly chart as the MA-channel goes downwards and the price is below the MA55. We advise to wait until the end of today’s event and try to open trades as close to the balance line area as possible.

Technical Outlook August 29, 2016



EURUSD





Fed’s Head Janet Yellen gave some signals about the probability of interest rates rise this year. This resulted in a significant decline in EUR/USD. USD has got a significant support for the next couple of days. The market will follow carefully US data searching for confirmation of the probability of interest rates growth in the USA. We advise to pay attention to the US Labor Market data this week. It is to be released on Friday.

The uptrend is still in progress on the Weekly chart as the price is above the MA55. The pattern that we can see on this timeframe indicates on the probability of further downside movement. The growth towards 1,15000 is questionable at the moment.

There is the downtrend on the Hourly chart as the MA-channel goes downwards and the price is below the MA55. We advise to avoid trading as the price is close to the lower side of the MA-channel. We recommend waiting until the price goes back to the balance line on the Hourly chart.



GBPUSD





GBP/USD continued its downside dynamics after the Fed’s Head Yellen speech on Friday. MA-channel is tight as it was before the results of the Brexit Referendum. The volatility is low. USD have chances to continue its growth and we recommend looking for short trades.

There is the downtrend on the Weekly chart as the price is below the MA55. There was no decline below 1,30000. It may occur this week as USD has positive dynamics after Yellen’s speech.

There is the downtrend on the Hourly chart as the MA-channel goes downwards and the price is below the MA55. We advise to avoid trading as the price is close to the lower side of the MA-channel It is better to wait until the price is back to the balance line.



AUDUSD





AUD/USD moved downwards on Friday according to the Weekly chart and declined below 0,75850/76000 key area. We advise to search for short trades only and only after the price is back to the balance line. It is better to avoid trading at the moment.

There is the uptrend on the Weekly chart as the price is above the MA55. The currency pair went downwards according to our expectations. The target level for this decline is far from current quotes.

There is no trend on the Hourly chart as the MA-channel is horizontal and the price is close to the MA55. We advise to avoid trading at the moment as the price is close to the lower side of the MA-channel. It is better to wait until the price is back to the balance line.



USDCHF





USD/CHF resumed its growth after Yellen’s speech on Friday. The currency pair trades within a pattern on the Weekly chart and the growth may continue this week. We advise to avoid trading as the price is far from the balance line. Wait until it is back to the MA55 and then you may try opening long trades.

There is no trend on the Weekly chart as the price is fluctuating around the MA55. USD/CHF may rise towards 0,99500 this week.

There is the uptrend on the Hourly chart as the MA-channel looks upwards and the price is above the MA55. We advise to avoid trading as the price is close to the upper side of the MA-channel. Wait until the price is back to the balance line and then you may open long trades.




Gold/Silver Technical Outlook August 29, 2016



GOLD (XAUUSD)





The market participants took into consideration the Fed’s Head Yellen hints on the probability of the interest rates growth this year. Janet Yellen noticed in her speech on Friday, that there are important signals to raise interest rates in the nearest future. Those words gave additional support to the USD.

There is the uptrend on the Weekly chart as the price is above the MA55. Another attempt to break through the trendline was successful and lead to XAU/USD decline. We expect this dynamics to continue in the next five days.

There is the downtrend on the Hourly chart as the MA-channel goes downwards and the price is below the MA55. XAU/USD is still not so far from the balance line. We advise to wait until the price is back to the balance line area and then you may take any trading decision according to the situation.



SILVER (XAGUSD)





XAG/USD did not make new lows on Friday. However, the price did it today in the morning. You may try to open short trades if this break through is true. In order to have a proof of this break through, wait until European session. The price must not go back above 18,50.

There is the uptrend on the Weekly chart as the price is above the MA55. The price goes to the red trendline and may reach 17,50 in the nearest future.

There is the downtrend on the Hourly chart as the MA-channel goes downwards and the price is below the MA55. We advise to wait until the price is back to the MA55 area and then you may try to open short trades.

Technical Outlook August 30, 2016



EURUSD





EUR/USD continued its moderate decline. The main reason for the downtrend is the growth of expectations of the interest rates raise in the USA this year. Fed’s Head Yellen underlined the probability of the monetary policy tightening during 2016. Personal spending data remain within forecasts and had almost no impact on the currency pair. The price is still far from the balance line. We advise to avoid trading as it is too risky at the moment.

There is the uptrend on the Weekly chart as the price is above the MA55. There is a pattern indicating on the further EUR/USD decline. The growth towards 1,15000 is questionable at the moment. However, we cannot reject this opportunity in the future.

The downtrend is in progress on the Hourly chart as the MA-channel goes downwards and the price is below the MA55. We advise to wait until the price is back to the balance line (MA55 area) in order to open short traders. It is risky to open trades at the moment as correction is possible.



GBPUSD





Fed’s Head speech influenced GBP/USD during Monday’s sessions. Janet Yellen underlined that FOMC is ready to consider the possibility of interest rates raise during the upcoming meetings. Those hints were enough to give significant support to greenback against other major currencies. USD is on the rally until Friday at least, when the important US Labor Market data is to be released.

There is the downtrend on the Weekly chart as the price is below the MA55. The currency pair failed to decline below 1,30000 last week. However, we still consider such an opportunity in the nearest future.

The downtrend is progressing on the Hourly chart as the MA-channel goes downwards and the price is below the MA55. We advise to wait until the price is back to the balance line (MA55 area) in order to open short trades. It is too risky to sell at the moment as correction is possible.



AUDUSD





AUD/USD had some correction allowing to open short trades. If the price is back to the key 0,75850/0,76000 area, there will be a good opportunity to sell from there. The balance line is also in that area. It is better to wait until the correction is done in order to open trades.

There is the uptrend on the Weekly chart as the price is above the MA55. The currency pair went down according to our expectations targeting 0,71500.

There is the downtrend on the Hourly chart as the MA-channel goes downwards and the price is below the MA55. We advise to open short trades from 0,75850/0,76000 area, placing stops above the balance line (MA55 area).



USDCHF





USD/CHF makes no attempts to get back to the MA55 balance line. The uptrend is too strong and the currency pair can not even reach its balance area. We advise to avoid trading until USD/CHF is back to the balance line (MA55 area). The growth still has some space and reserves. However, it is too risky to enter long trades as the correction may occur at any time.

There is no trend on the Weekly chart as the price is fluctuating around the MA55. The price may grow towards 0,99500 this week.

There is the uptrend on the Hourly chart as the MA-channel looks upwards and the price is above the MA55. We advise to avoid trading at the moment as the price is close to the upper side of the MA-channel. It is better to wait until the price is back to the balance line.





Gold/Silver Technical Outlook August 30, 2016



GOLD (XAUUSD)





XAU/USD made a fake breakthrough of 1318,00 level and then moved higher. This fake breakthrough was done during Asian session. If it happens during Asian session, it is better to wait for confirmation during European session. However, we have seen no confirmation of the breakthrough. XAU/USD is in neutral position at the moment.

There is the uptrend on the Weekly chart as the price is above the MA55 Another attempt to break through the trend line failed and resulted in prices decline. We expect this dynamics to continue this week.

There is no clear trend on the Hourly chart as the MA-channel is horizontal and the price is above the MA55. We expect the tendency to change or to resume today.



SILVER (XAGUSD)





XAG/USD did no confirmation of the breakthrough and went back above 18,50. There was no opportunity to open short trades. The tendency has changed, regardless the USD growth. There is a probability of a new 18,40-18,90 range. The price may fluctuate within this range during the week.

There is the uptrend on the Weekly chart as the price is above the MA55. XAG/USD goes back towards the redline and the price may reach 17,50 in the nearest future.

The uptrend is in progress on the Hourly chart as the MA-channel goes upwards and the price is above the MA55. We advise to avoid trading at the moment as the situation is still unclear.