Thread: Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

GBP/JPY Technical Analysis: February 5, 2018

During the Friday trading session, the market was a “risk off” move following, which resulted in a rollover in the market. The latest high implies the trend to move upward in the long-term period.

The British pound rolled over against the Japanese yen and reached the new high, but has had difficulty in the latter part of the day. It breaks higher than the level of 155, which has been a significant level that would induce buyers to return. However, there is a tendency for a volatility in the market and traders should be ready for big moves. Later on, the pair is likely to move towards the level of 160 but it will take a few days or week to reach this point. The uptrend has been really strong which is why there will not be a massive correction but more of a pullback in the market.

The next target level would be at 163 but it might take some time to reach this level, although, it might take some time to reach this level. Moreover, pullbacks would also open opportunities for purchases which makes small deals to be the ideal strategy in this situation. Other than that, this market is sene to have a lot of noise, which is referred as the “Dragon” in the forex market. Risk sensitivity is still a big deal for this pair, especially for British pound which is gaining strength. It is better to make sure for the pair to rise in value before placing bets on it, although this pair is likely to compete in the market very well.


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EUR/GBP Technical Analysis: February 7, 2018

Volatility was predominant during the Tuesday trading session as the U.S. dollar dominates the market, which had an unfavorable effect on both currencies. The market shows the relative strength of the market.

It has been bullish during the Tuesday trading session as the British pound declined against the U.S. dollar. Nonetheless, the euro did not fall, as much as, the British pound. For now, the pair will be based on their relative strength but since the euro did not drop as low as the British pound, traders are anticipated to trade and push the pair higher. The market is close to the level of 0.89 which is a fair value in the consolidation area. The upward momentum implies the uptrend of the pair towards 0.90 level.

A massive resistance was seen at the area of 0.90 which has been the upper boundary in the past and it will be not easy to break this level. Although, there is a bit of noise found lower than the level of 0.8875 which proceeds to offer support in the market. I would suggest buying on the lows but it will be part by part instead of a big move. The pair will break out of the consolidation area and proceeds to move up towards the level of 0.95. Alternately, it is also possible to a have a new low which would send the market to reach the level of 0.86 based on the long-term charts.

USD/CAD Technical Analysis: February 12, 2018

The American dollar rallied versus other currencies around the globe, and the Loonie seems different. The USD/CAD rally due to declining prices of the oil. The Canadian dollar is commonly used by currency traders as a substitute for the oil markets which means that when the WTI Crude Oil drop, the Loonie will typically follow.

The US dollar attempts to create some stand to resume the bullish pressure, this could be done if the oil markets continue to remain weak. An unidentified employment figure will be released on Friday from Canada but failed to help things. Looking forward, the interest rates in the United States are rising which indicates a good sign for the currency. With this, the buying pressure is projected to continue, however, there is a tendency that the opposite thing may happen. We could consider this upon breaking down under the hammer formation last week. Basically, it is a breakdown beneath the 1.22 handle. In the past, there are a lot of short-term volatility in the USD/CAD which normally occur upon the intertwining of the two economies.

It should be noted that the United States and Canada are each other’s biggest trading partners which often grind each other. It can be assumed that this point can be defined as a “crucial inflection”, so it is advised to maintain a small position and add when the market establishes itself well.

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GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: February 19, 2018

The single European currency and the British pound shared the same fate on Friday, as it showed high volatility during the first half of the day due to the weakening of the US dollar. While in the afternoon, the strength of the American currency prevailed which helped regain the profits of the sterling of the past few days. It further helped the GBP/USD pair to end the weak in a sluggish approach which indicates correction in the following days.

The pound was secured because of the dollar instability and pushed the Cable pair to reach the 1.38 zone until the psychologically important level of 1.40. Briefly, the pair moved away from any danger for good and the pound bulls attempt to stabilize the momentum in continuing the upward movement in the near term.

As the decline of the dollar does not have enough economic data or fundamentals to support it, the rebound in the US currency did the same. This resulted in the downturn of the pound, pushing through the 1.41 mark and traded underneath the 1.40 area for a short period of time. Subsequently, the pair successfully closed the week above the 1.40 level. As of this writing, the Cable pair continued trading on top of that region and the price level is expected to remain on that point, relative to the bulls and bears. In case the pair remained steady above 1.40, the bulls will take control which would likely to be seen in the coming weeks.

Ultimately, there is no major news from the United Kingdom while there is a bank holiday in the United States today. It is safe to say that consolidation and ranging are possible while market players anticipate for bigger investors to show up its intentions and start to move in a certain trend in order to tag along. It is believed that the USD will gain strength in the medium term.


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EUR/GBP Technical Analysis: February 21, 2018

The single European currency paired with British pound had broken down during the course of Tuesday’s session. The EUR/GBP pair moved lower near the 0.88 mark which is a previous support and resistance. Hence, it should be expected that the market will have plenty of noise around that level.

Generally, the market will be noisy due to potential headline risk brought by the euro/pound pair in line with the negotiations of the European Union and the United Kingdom. Therefore, this problem might continue until the next couple of months that make trading tough over a long period of time.

Breaking down under the 0.88 region will allow the market to touch the 0.8740 zone. Otherwise, a rally from that point will push the market above the 0.8860 level or even to 0.90 eventually. This type of market requires players to take profits hurriedly for it’s nearly impossible to hover a trade in the longer-term, except when one is able to deal with wild swings for both profit and loss. Nevertheless, the general upward trend will resume since participants favor the EU stability against the uncertain future of the UK. It is possible to move on top of the 0.93 area.

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EUR/GBP Technical Analysis: February 26, 2018

The euro against the British pound broke lower than the Friday trading session and reach lower than the level of 0.88. There is a massive support around the area with a lot of noise in the long-term.

The presence of noise will most likely persist with the headlines as the result of negotiations between Brussels and London which is likely to influence the pair. At the same time, traders should anticipate for volatility. Looking at the weekly chart, the pair ranges 300-pips and it will remain for some time until there is a definite proposition for the negotiation. The market should anticipate for this to continue in a while.

Traders could utilize in accordance to the stochastic oscillator as they will be trading back and forth in short-term. There is also a probability for negativity with the level of 0.87 in the floor below. The closer this level can be reached, it is wise to buy in this market and will be the focus on this move. Traders could sell at some point and volatility is likely to persist unless it turns around higher than the level of 0.8840. Hereinafter, buying is possible and continues to be volatile. However, if you are not strong enough and focus on the consolidation of the area and a lot of opportunities to gain profit in a well-defined rectangle.


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EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: February 27, 2018

The euro against the U.S. dollar has been trading closely on either side at the level of 1.23 as the market presumes the pair to move further.

The EUR/USD pair is moving within a tight range in the past 24 hours which is already anticipated in Monday trading session. Low volatility is not surprising in the current market condition. Traders are likely to position themselves for this week on Mondays which causes low volatility.

Similarly, trading remained the same despite the speech of ECB President Draghi yesterday. The speech met the expectations with him saying positively on the growth of the economy in the eurozone. He is recognized to be dovish but the fact remains of the steady growth of the economy as reflected in the incoming data and remains positive in the past few months. This has preserved the euro to keep afloat in the past 24 hours although the movements have been very minimal.

The market is also anticipated to gain volatility and liquidity as the end of the month is approaching. At the same time, price fluctuations to be inundated by trade positioning and monthly end flow. Options are also about to expire in the upcoming days, which will keep the market busy on particular price range.

The market will probably focus on the dollar with the new Fed chief, Jerome Powell, to testify and engage the market waiting for signals on monetary policies and future rate hikes in the next few months. As for the economic data, both the durable goods data and the trade balance data from the U.S. will be published and if it did not meet expectations, the dollar is likely to roll downward.

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: March 6, 2018

The EUR/USD pair constantly trading in a strong manner as it moves away from the election results in Italy. The focus remains to be on the dollar weakening felt across the markets. It is somewhat surprising for those who expected that the Italian election will bring an impact towards the euro area but the results of further led concerns of the EU leaders.

Italy is the third biggest economy in the European region and the election results indicate the increasing anti-establishment votes. This event is common from all over the countries especially from the United States to Asia. Hence, this should be one of the main concerns of the Euro officials since this kind of trend may grow continually which could hurt the euro and its existence in the following years. However, this does not necessarily mean that the euro is free from any burden while traders appear to be happy about the maintained current situation. This the reason behind the move of the euro/dollar pair through the 1.2350 level as of this writing

Ultimately, there are no important economic news or data from the EU or the US for this day but this reflects some ranging and consolidation in the near-term. Also, the markets anticipate further set of data in the second half of the week from the United States, indicating a short-term trend for the greenbacks.

GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: March 7, 2018

The British pound resumes its uptrend amid the weakened dollar across all market in the past 24 hours. Although the increase was not as high as it can be, it was able to move steadily which has assisted the British currency to recover from its lows and have a steady uptrend over the past few days. These gave the investors more confidence during the said period of time.

Meanwhile, the sterling pound has been moving steadily and further boosted by the lack of economic data. The ongoing Brexit negotiation following the set plan also supports the pound. Euro leaders have been busy with their domestic concerns and at the same time, rumors and commentaries about them have also lessened At the same time, the Brexit negotiation has assisted the dollar to move steadily.

The dollar got behind against other currencies following the resignation of Trump’s economic advisor, John Cohn, which is not favorable for the president and his team as they have had some difficulties in handling situation in the past few months. On the other hand, this is advantageous for the dollar as the overall market which is the reason for the dollar’s decline during this period of time.

The market is getting ready for the slew of data in the upcoming days with a new month has begun. The ADP employment report expected to be released today will hint at the results of another incoming data of Friday. If the data came out weakly, this would further push the GBP/USD pair towards the area of 1.40.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: March 9, 2018

The euro paired with the dollar had whipsawed yesterday and pulled lower after the monetary policy meeting of the ECB. The focus of the meeting was back again about removing the easing bias. The European Central Bank (ECB) decided to kept the interest rates unchanged and further confirmed the timeline of the Quantitative Easing (QE) until the end of September. Moreover, the unemployment claims edged higher from its 48-year low over the past 24 hours. But the US labor market remained tight to support the American currency.

The EUR/USD pair moved downwards and formed a triple top followed by a head and shoulder reversal pattern. The resistance entered the 1.2446 region which is close to its March highs, while the support touched the 1.2308 level around the 10-day moving average. The momentum had a reversal and approached the negative territory. The MACD index showed a crossover sell signal as well as the fast stochastic indicator. As of this writing, the MACD histogram prints in the red with a descending sloping momentum which reflects lower prices.


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