Thread: Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: December 13, 2017

The EURUSD edged downwards as the German investor confidence came in weaker than predicted results, along with the robust figures of American inflation data that reinforced the US dollar and put pressure on the single European currency. Small business confidence in the United States also showed secured position combined with strong U.S. chain store sales.

Originally, the euro-dollar pair trailed lower on Tuesday and drove upwards to test the resistance at 1.1819 area near the 10-day moving average. The support of the pair touched the 1.1675 region around the ascending trend line. While prices generate a topping formation and market participant anticipates for the Fed decision as the central bank is highly expected to increase interest rates in the US by 25 basis points. The momentum became negative and the MACD indicator created a crossover sell signal. The moving average convergence divergence further prints in the red with a descending trajectory which implies for a lower exchange of rate.


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GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: December 18, 2017

The British pound trades in a strong manner since the day started even despite the lack of fundamental developments. Also, there are not much economic releases on Friday which allow the consolidation and ranging for the price action within that day. At the same time, there are reports about increasing support for the US tax reform bill during the American trading session, it further indicates that the bill is expected to be passed amid the course of the current week. Hence, this enables the US dollar to grow and pushed the GBP/USD pair downwards during Friday’s late session. When the bill is approved, the strength of the greenbacks is expected to resume in the near term, until the year ends. In turn, the Cable pair will continue to be under pressure throughout this period, however, the level of impact remains unclear.

On weekend, British Prime Minister Theresa May reiterated her determination to push through the Brexit process and she further stated her willingness to deal with it in the short term concerning the payment that the United Kingdom need to settle along with the possible trade access. These two factors are the most important elements to consider but the UK and the market seem worried about these. The process appears to be a little bit of delay but the encouraging speech delivered by PM May successfully give a slight raise to the sterling earlier this morning.

Ultimately, there is no major news from the US or the UK for the rest of the day while some consolidation and ranging are expected much for today. Moreover, volatility might get a slight boost upon the onset of the US session and further updates with regards the tax bill.


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GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: December 20, 2017

The GBP/USD currency pair was able to move ahead of the American dollar, as the USD lower in price amid smooth approval process of the tax bill. The passage was projected to support the dollar to increase, however, the effect was completely different. The market’s reaction remains uncertain not until the bill is already passed through in one of the US Houses and waiting for the Senate approval. However, there could be some delay due to procedural problems which could possibly place some pressure on the greenbacks that could further lead to uncertainty. As expected, the tax reform bill will be enacted by the Senate on a very tight margin and further requires the President’s signature to seal in the law. The whole scenario would likely be completed within this week, hence, the volatility in the USD should keep going until it happens.

The Brexit process does not have much improvement over this week and it is predicted to continue until New Year. Definitely, there will be some strong development in the process since the leaders on both sides clearly stated about the completion of a deal which may take a matter of time prior accomplishing the agreement. This notion seems to provide support for the pound in the past couple of weeks.

Ultimately, BOE Governor Mark Carney will have his speech but the impact to the market is predicted to be minimal. The market trend for today would likely be led by the USD and tax bill legislation. It is believed that the greens should gain more strength in the short and medium term in order to maintain the GBPUSD active.


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EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: December 21, 2017

The euro paired against the U.S. dollar still dominates the market as it positions strongly, although the volatile is starts to lessen come to the end of the week. The volatility would be much more minimize by the end of the week with the year about to end.

The U.S. tax reform bill was successfully passed that require Trump to seal it after which is anticipated soon. This is considered as an achievement for Trump as everyone in the team worked hard for this. It would also be beneficial for the large companies and gain more profit which would bring in more jobs in the U.S.

Trump has stabilized his position at the top which would now shift his attention to other bills such as the healthcare reform bill. However, the stock market and foreign exchange of the U.S. dollar did not have that much vigor, as the dollar is starting to decline recently compared to its position last week. It has been all over the market which supported the euro instead.

The EUR/USD pair was seen to touch on the 1.19 level but moved after into a consolidated yesterday. Trades are being traded just currently below the said level. When it comes to news, the final GDP data from the U.S. is anticipated today but there will be no other economic news to be published from the Eurozone. Hence, the trading range is presumed to tighten especially since the holidays are approaching.


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AUD/USD Technical Analysis: December 22, 2017

The Aussie dollar traded sideways initially amid Thursday’s trading session, however, it moved higher following a weaker numbers of American GDP. This further caused the greenbacks to decline while providing a slight increase towards the Australian dollar during the day.

Nevertheless, the AUD/USD pair trades in a low-volume at the margin during the day and traders are concerned to the approaching holidays in contrast to the currency markets.

It can be assumed that a break down under the 0.7625 area will push the market downwards reaching the 0.75 handle. It appears that the AUD will have some difficulty in moving higher to the upside, as a result, sellers manage to conduct a return. Perhaps, the market is easier to short at higher levels, but for now, it is suggested to stay on the sidelines until the volumes return.

There are some resistance barriers throughout the way which could make a difficult course to drive upwards. Hence, buying the commodity-linked pair seems to be under pressure. On the other hand, there’s no any shorting opportunity due to rally attempts by the market. The ability to roll over will push the market quickly, but it is impossible to see until after the New Year’s Day. Therefore, the market is expected to be difficult to deal with.

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: December 26, 2017

The euro against the U.S. dollar started with a tight trading week in a facile environment in consideration of the current market situation. Majority of traders are on a vacation this Christmas holiday season and the New Year whereas most of them would not working. This would result to lower volatility and liquidity that would limit the range of trading for this week.

There is also not much economic data on the calendar with fewer fundamentals in the next days to come. The steady dollar was supported by the tax reform bill, which was recently passed by the Senate and signed by the U.S. President. This would benefit m0st of the companies with lots of tax benefits which is as much as important to Trump and his team. At the same time, this is foreseen to improve the labor market and boost the economy in the succeeding years.

Hence, the dollar gained a short-term boost from the bill which will most likely be in effect for this week. The euro is being traded in a right range with minor consolidation in the past few months. Although, the fundamental new was not enough to successfully break the trading range.
It is yet to be discovered where the trend will range and if it is sufficient to sustain the pair within its range until January.

For today, there is not much economic news that is anticipated to be released from the eurozone or from the U.S. It is holidays in most part of Europe, which could result to tight trading range and consolidation throughout the day.


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GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: December 27, 2017

It was a holiday in the majority of the places in Europe, including the U.K. that makes it not surprising if the pound persisted to consolidate and traded within a tight range for the most part of trading yesterday. The GBP/USD pair falls within a tight range since there is few major economic news.

It will not be surprising to have lesser volatility and liquidity this holiday season. At the same time, there is not much placing of trades and more on profit-taking in the past week, which can be seen mostly in the smaller market such as bitcoin. Although, it was not that obvious for pound despite there is a bigger market that is why grabbing the opportunity of any selling of this pair prior to holidays is relevant.

Come the second week of January, both liquidity and volatility will most likely gain momentum. Until then, traders should get ready for choppiness within a range near the end of the year. The market has reopened following a long weekend yet, there is still fewer traders this week since most still wanted to extend their vacation until New Year. Hence, consolidation of the pair within a tight range will persist in the next few days.

When it comes to data the Conference board’s Consumer confidence data from the U.S. is anticipated to be released today but this would not bring much volatility in the market. There is no major economic news from the U.K. Thus, there will be low trading and slow movement in the market for the rest of the day.


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GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: December 28, 2017

The British pound against the U.S. dollar climbs higher in the past 24 hours due to the weakness of the dollar that boosts other currencies against the dollar. This is presumed to persist for short-term with the incoming long weekend as the New Year approaches which would cause a dull trading in the market. Continue reading at https://goo.gl/jwfU5K


USD/JPY Technical Analysis: December 28, 2017

It is suggested that the American should resume its rally versus the Japanese yen within a specified time and also in case of the bullish sentiment by stock markets. This usually pushes the markets towards a higher position. The USD/JPY and the S&P 500 had a special correlation which should be kept in mind. Continue reading at https://goo.gl/GGc2V6


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EUR/USD Technical Analysis: January 3, 2018

The Euro against the U.S. dollar climbed higher testing the resistance levels because of the exceedingly strong results of the manufacturing PMI following hints of the ECB meeting to end the quantitative easing in 2018. The European Central Bank has adjusted to the situation but with a steady inflation and progressive growth propelled the euro at a much higher rate.

The EUR/USD pair reached close to the September high at 1.2092 but was unsuccessful in breaking this rate. A strong euro has put pressure on the European stocks putting corporations into the lesser advantage against their competitors. The support level is found close to the 10-day Moving Average at 1.1920. The MACD histogram has been positive as it is printed in black with an upward sloping trajectory which could lead to a much higher Forex rate. The RSI indicator also gives an increasing positive momentum although the current rate is at 71. This is much higher than the overbought level of 70, which hints the possibility for a correction.


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NZD/USD Technical Analysis: January 8, 2018


The New Zealand dollar was able to break higher upon the opening session on Monday, however, took a reversal throughout the week to move lower and fill the gap. In line with this, a sufficient support was seen and bounced to the upside. The day closed with a slight formation of a hammer pattern, which implies that buyers will return to the market.


It is possible that the Kiwi dollar will resume driving near the top of the overall consolidation zone, marked on the chart around 0.75 area. The 0.68 region below is considered highly supportive and basically the “floor” in the NZD/USD pair.


It remains to be seen prior shorting this market despite the noticeable breakdown underneath the bottom of the hammer for the week appears to be negative. But 0.70 level seems to be supportive which requires some time before taking long positions.


In case that commodity markets would rally in general, the upward trend would likely to continue. However, the current situation is slightly overbought which could possibly be followed by a pullback that should only offer value going forward. This is because the American currency was very weak versus other currencies. The market remains to have plenty of noise but a significant amount of bullish pressure is expected in order to continue moving forward. The highs will be tested again and will eventually break out.


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