Thread: Fresh Forex forecast

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Daily Forex market review 5 August 2016



EUR/USD (Euro/dollar pair)
- If we see a total NPF figure above the 200 (two hundred thousand), that will be enough to strengthen the US currency. This result is very probable, because in July the number of applications for unemployment benefits fell to its lowest level since 1973 (nineteen seventy three), which means the downtrend.
- ADX indicator on the daily and the hourly charts shows the uptrend; whereas on the 4-hours chart it shows the downtrend.
- RSI on the daily, 4-hours and hourly charts shows the flat.
- Recommendation: trade inside the flat 1,1080-1,1180 (one ten eighty – one eleven eighty).
The next pair - GBP/USD (Pound/dollar)
- The Bank of England has cut the key rate by 0.25% (zero dot twenty five per cent) and enhanced its QE program. It intends to lower the rate again later this year. GDP forecasts for 2016 - 2018 years were revised in the negative direction, which means the downtrend.
- ADX indicator on the daily and 4-hours charts shows the flat; on the hourly chart it shows the downtrend.
- RSI on the daily, 4-hours and hourly charts shows the flat.
- There is a strong bearish candle formed on August 4, which means the downtrend.
- Recommendation: Open Sell trades at 1,3145 (one thirty one forty five) and take profit at 1,3065 (one thirty one sixty five).
And finally, USD/JPY (Dollar/Japanese Yen)
- Global stock markets are growing, which should lift the pair, but traders ignored positive background. It indicates presence of a large number of sellers in the market, which means the downtrend.
- ADX indicator on the daily and 4-hours charts shows the flat; whereas on the hourly chart it shows the downtrend.
- RSI on the daily, 4-hours and hourly charts shows the flat
- Recommendation: trade inside the flat 100,60-101,60 (one hundred dot sixty - one hundred and one sixty)
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Daily Forex market review 2 August 2016





EUR/USD (Euro/dollar pair)
- Yield of the 10-years' German bonds (paragon bonds for the euro zone) has dropped against US and UK bonds, which usually is a negative factor for euro, whether it is paired with dollar and pound . So, it is the downtrend.
- ADX indicator on the daily chart shows the uptrend; whereas on the 4-hours and hourly charts it is the downward trend.
- RSI indicator on the hourly chart is heavily oversold, so this is a signal of an upward correction.
- Recommendation: Open Sell trades at 1,1308 (one thirteen zero eight) and take profit at 1,1280 (one twelve eighty).
The next pair - GBP / USD (Pound/dollar)
- Yield of the 10-years' UK bonds is growing against US and German bonds. It makes investments in British assets more attractive. So, it is the uptrend.
- ADX indicator on the daily and the hourly charts shows the flat; whereas on the 4-hours chart, the trend is downward.
- RSI indicator shows the flat on the daily, 4-hours and hourly charts.
- Recommendation: trade inside the flat 1.3015 -1.3095 (one thirty fifteen - one thirty ninety five)
And finally, USD/JPY (Dollar/Japanese Yen)
- An outflow of capital from risky assets indicates a downtrend, because the capital will go to the yen as a funding currency Number One in the carry trade operations. So, it is the uptrend.
- ADX indicator on the daily and hourly charts shows the flat; whereas on the 4-hours chart, the trend is downward.
- RSI indicator on the daily and hourly charts shows the flat; on the 4-hours chart, the trend is down.
- Recommendation: trade inside the flat 100,20-101,20 (one hundred sharply dot twenty - one hundred and one dot twenty).
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Daily Forex market review 25 August 2016


Currency market review for August twenty fifth
EUR/USD (Euro/dollar pair)
Release by the IFO institute can be a little worse than it was expected. The reason is that PMI composite index by Markit institution was released below the median forecast. Sales in the commodity market usually support US dollar, becase the cost of commodities is denominated in US currency. Thus, the trend is downward.
- ADX indicator on the daily chart shows the uptrend; whereas on the 4-hour chart and hourly charts it shows the flat.
- RSI indicator on the daily, 4-hours and hourly charts shows the flat.
- Recommendation: trade inside the flat 1.1245 -1.1295 (one twelve forty five - one twelve ninety five) (which corresponds to the Bollinger bands range on the hourly chart)
The next pair - GBP / USD (Pound/dollar)
- On the one hand, yield of the 10-years UK bonds is growing against US and German bonds, which is positive for the pound. On the other hand, yesterday oil closed the day in the "red zone", and the negative trend is still relevant, which will put the pair GBP/USD under pressure. Thus, it is the flat.
- ADX indicator on the daily and hourly charts shows the flat; on the 4-hours chart it is the uptrend.
- RSI indicator on the daily, 4-hours and hourly charts shows the flat.
- Recommendation: trade inside the flat 1.3200 - 1.3265 (one thirty two double zero - one thirty two sixty five) (which corresponds to the Bollinger bands range on the hourly chart)
And finally, USD/JPY (Dollar/Japanese Yen)
- Growth of the index of fear VIX by 8.6% (eight dot six per cent) for the third trading day in a row signals a possible inflow of capital into safe assets, which usually the Japanese yen is related to. Thus, the trend is downward.
- Both indicators – ADX and RSI - show the flat on the daily, 4-hours and hourly charts.
- Recommendation: Open Sell trades at 100,55 (one hundred dot fifty five) and take profit at 100,15 (one hundred dot fifteen).
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Pay attention on time frame Н1, EURUSD: bearish local potential confirmed- active ADX favors sellers. We are waiting for break of support 1.1159 and attack of 1.1136.

Н1: at this local level, there is also a flat both shown by indicators and price chart. Support is even better shaped (1.3060) and there is a high probability that today sellers will not break this price. decline to 1.3060 and then rebound to 1.3090 . sell only after a possible upward correction to 1.3090

Today AUDUSD tend to be in the normal area daily, with an upper limit in the agreement area and the lower limit at 0.75321 0.74991, where the tendency is still down since yesterday with an upper limit at 0.75804, and if meliaht domination still held by the seller on a daily basis.

As long as the price is under the domination of selling the option sell still valid let alone daily average still under the domination seller, directions ma and price movements tend to be below the MA her, and motion back and forth dirange between the higher price 0.75321 and lower price 0.74991 nothing to do with the power price in MACD where its price is above the MA, and this trend is likely to be something of a buyer or their efforts to reverse the situation of the markets that had been controlled by the seller.

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