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Brazil Industrial Output (YoY) declined to -8.9% in July from previous -3.2%








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Sep 02,2015
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US nonfarm payrolls likely steady, ADP suggests - ING







FXStreet (Delhi) – Analysts at ING, expects that the US non-farm payrolls data is unlikely to show any significant deviation from its previous print as suggested by the outcome of recent ADP employment data.


Key Quotes


“With the ADP survey the only remotely accurate US non-farm payrolls directional indicator, the latest release might suggest that there is unlikely to be any significant deviation of Friday’s payrolls from the 215K figure printed last month.”


“The ADP employment total rose by 190K, up from a downward revised 177K in July (previously 185K). That said, a 13K monthly difference looks insignificant relative to the noise in this series, and a more reasonable description of the figures would be to say that there is no strong directional steer from the ADP this month.”


“One interpretation of this would be that the August payrolls figures will be close to the 215K result in July. But that would be to ignore the scope for occasional but sizeable divergences in these two series.”


“A better interpretation would be that anything is still possible from Friday’s labour report figures, and scope for market surprises in both directions remains, though the probabilities of this coming from the payrolls figure looks smaller at this stage.”









Sep 02,2015
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Global forex markets in quiet mode today - TDS






FXStreet (Delhi) – Analysts at TDS, notes that the global forex markets are quiet today as investors are slowly finding their way back from their summer holidays but participation remains minimal ahead of the major event risks tomorrow (ECB) and Friday (US employment).


Key Quotes


“Equity markets took a breather overnight after Tuesday’s renewed volatility dealt a fresh blow to broader sentiment. The major indices in Europe have traded back into positive territory after early declines. This follows a more mixed session in Asia overnight, but the declines are mild by recent standards.”


“The USD is firming modestly against most G10 counterparts but a lack of major European data releases has kept things on a quiet footing. The CAD is the main underperformer today, down 0.8% against the USD, as oil prices continue to retrace their sharp gains from last week. After a near-8% drop yesterday, front-month WTI futures are another 2.5% lower today.”


“AUDUSD is also lower (-0.5%) after a weaker-than-expected Q2 GDP report has helped send spot briefly below the 0.70 mark for the first time since 2009. The NOK is defying commodity price weakness with a small 0.2% gain while the SEK (+0.3%) is also modestly higher ahead of the Riksbank rate decision tomorrow. There we and the consensus expect an unchanged result, but a sizable minority of members (25%) of the Bloomberg forecast panel are looking for further rate cuts tomorrow.”


“Looking ahead to today’s session, we think the general tone is likely to remain relatively muted on average. Markets remain largely flow-driven, which leads us to remain cautious and reluctant to chase price action.”









Sep 02,2015
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EUR/USD around 1.1240 on US data






FXStreet (Edinburgh) - After bouncing off session troughs near 1.1220, EUR/USD has managed to advance towards the 1.1240/45 area so far.


EUR/USD indifferent to US releases


The pair paid little to none attention to US Factory Orders, expanding at a monthly pace of 0.4% vs. expectations for a 0.9% advance. Orders excluding the Transportation sector have contracted 0.6% inter-month, down from the previous 0.6% gain.


Today’s US docket passed largely unnoticed amongst traders, who remain more concentrated in tomorrow’s ECB meeting and Friday’s Payrolls (220K exp.).


EUR/USD key levels


At the moment the pair is losing 0.69% at 1.1235 with the immediate support at 1.1226 (low Sep.2) followed by 1.1207 (low Sep.1) and then 1.1170 (low Aug.31). On the other hand, a break above 1.1320 (high Sep.2) would open the door to 1.1333 (high Sep.1) and finally 1.1364 (high Aug.27).









Sep 02,2015
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Oil back below $45.00 after EIA inventory data






FXStreet (Córdoba) - Crude oil retraced completely its intraday advance and fell back below $45.00 a barrel after data showed US crude oil stocks increased more than expected last week.


Amid concerns of global supply glut, EIA data showed that despite US oil production dropped 1.3% to its lowest level since February, crude oil inventories increased by 4.667 million barrels in the week ended Aug 28, versus expectations of around 0.8 - 0.9 million barrels. On Tuesday, the American Petroleum Institute (API) said supplies rose 7.6 million barrels.


Crude oil retreated back to the $44.50 zone after data, having reached a high of $46.32/bbl earlier on the day.











Sep 02,2015
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Canada Labor Productivity (QoQ) meets forecasts (-0.6%)






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Sep 04,2015
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CAD: Economy turning towards revival led by export growth - Scotiabank








FXStreet (Delhi) – Analysts at Scotiabank feels that Canadian economy is taking a step towards economic revival as indicated by the robust export sector growth.

Key Quotes


“Export volumes climbed by 1% m/m. While the prior month’s gain was revised lower to post a gain of 3.6% m/m in June, which is over a percentage point less than originally thought, the fact that we got any growth in July is a plus off of what is still a strong June report.


“Import volumes climbed by 0.5% m/m in July and this signals stabilization in domestic demand.”


“If the data sticks in future revisions, then growth in Canadian export volumes is tracking at almost 12% for Q3 at an annualized and seasonally adjusted pace while import volumes are tracking a much softer gain that on net is driving a significant improvement in net trade as a contributor to GDP growth."


“Another encouraging point is that breadth was ok with some solid positives interspersed. In dollar terms, exports of industrial machinery, equipment and parts advanced by 5.5% m/m and are up 14.7% as cap-ex related exports are solid. Exports of consumer goods were also higher by 7.3% m/m. Exports of agricultural and fishing products were also up by 3.1% m/m.”

















Sep 04,2015
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USD/JPY wavers after US nonfarm payrolls








FXStreet (Córdoba) - USD/JPY oscillated sharply in the minutes that followed the release of the so-awaited US employment report, which showed US economy created fewer jobs than expected in August.


US nonfarm payrolls came in at 173K in August down from 245K the previous month and below the 220K expected. The unemployment rate edged down to 5.1% versus 5.2% expected.


USD/JPY reacted negatively and hit a low of 118.60 before quickly bouncing to 119.61 only to return to the 119.00 zone. At time of writing, the pair is trading at 119.07, still 0.81% below its opening price.













Sep 04,2015
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AUD/USD hits fresh 6-year lows after US NFP








FXStreet (Córdoba) - AUD/USD extended losses and scored fresh 6-year lows following the release of the US employment report as the greenback managed to benefit from it.


US nonfarm payrolls came in at 173K in August down from 245K the previous month and below the 220K expected. However, the unemployment rate edged down to 5.1% from 5.3% in July and against the 5.2% expected.


The nonfarm payroll report was the last major indicator before the Federal Reserve September 16-17 meeting, when some are still expecting the Fed to raise rates for first time since 2006.


AUD/USD moved down to a low of 0.6927, last seen March 2009, and it was last trading at 0.6945, 1.04% below its opening price and on track to post its fourth weekly loss in a row.













Sep 04,2015
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US NFP: Mixed bag with no impetus to Fed for lift-off - ING








FXStreet (Delhi) – Rob Carnell, Chief International Economist at ING, notes that the US labour report was a mixed back and was not sufficiently strong enough for the Fed to proceed with its September lift-off plans. There were no signs of surge in payrolls to back up falls in the unemployment rate and rising wages.


Key Quotes


“The softest part of the survey was the payrolls headline itself. At +173K, it is clearly at the lower end of recent trends, though there were decent upwards revisions to the previous two months, adding 44K to the running total, and this August number itself is prone to substantial upward revisions, so even this is not as bad as it looks.”


“But there were soft spots too. Manufacturing payrolls fell 17K on the month. Private employment creation was only 140K, and the numbers would have been much worse without an outsize 33K rise in government employment, driven by state and local government.”


“But there was, as is so often the case, a different story coming from the household survey, which showed the unemployment rate falling by more than expected to 5.1% - the lowest since April 2008. This was, however, mainly a function of a 41K fall in the labour force, and falling labour participation.”


“On top of this, wages growth was slightly stronger, at 0.3%mom, taking the annual rate of wage inflation up to 2.2%, with a rare upward revision to the July figures, which are also shown up at 2.2% YoY now.”


“This is still pretty weak though, and the Fed may like to see confirmation with a second decent rise in wages before concluding that something positive is really happening here.”













Sep 04,2015
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