ForexPros Daily Analysis March 30, 2011

Review The common currency opened lower on Monday as concerns over Portugal and regional electoral loss of German Chancellor Merkel’s Conservative party weighed on Euro. However, the currency pair found support at our entry long at 1.4031 as hawkish comments from Trichet and weak U.S. Personal income pushed the currency pair up to hit our first target at $1.4112 at 14:45 BST.

Strategy The Eurozone faces three more months of uncertainty over Portuguese politics and Irish banks as it struggles to contain a debt crisis. However, the common currency remains well supported in the near term with prospects of a rate hike by ECB next week. However, with geo-political tensions, Japanese nuclear crisis and growing prospects of an imminent Portuguese bailout, the dollar might attract flight to safety trades. Currency markets are bracing themselves for an interest rate hike by the ECB in order to tame inflation, which implied a resilient growth outlook in the bloc and was seen supporting the euro against the dollar. Today’s German CPI is likely to add to the strength in the Euro with consumer confidence from U.S. expected to disappoint in March after spectacular February figures. We continue to favour the upside for the common currency with $1.4085 being our entry long and $1.4149 being our first target for the day.

Alternative Scenario Negative sentiment about the Eurozone may push the common currency back below last week’s low at $1.4053, opening the way for a move to yesterday’s low at $1.4026.


Forex Trading analysis written by Raghee Horner for Forexpros.


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