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A Sharp Drop Leads to a Negative Session, the Euro Holds within its Wedge

dodjit — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 09:46:29 GMT

Investors became skeptic around high levels yesterday, sending the major stock indices into negative territory. Risk aversion already appeared at the start of the U.S session, as economic data showed that the employment situation wasn�t improving. Even though other leading indicators such as the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index, showed that certain parts of the economy are still improving, it wasn�t enough to prevent an equity drop.

Initial jobless claims weighed on investors at the start of the session, as the number showed that a further 3000 people had filed for unemployment benefits this week. Analysts were expecting only 502k, but the result came out at 505k. In addition, the leading index which measures the overall economic health, by combining 10 indicators such as building permits, new orders, money supply and average workweek, disappointed analysts, whom were expecting a 0.5% figure. The number came out at 0.3%

Stocks nose dived at the start of the session, led lower by the techs. Even though the major indices found support during the session, all the three indices closed in red. The S&P500 finished the session, with a loss of -1.34%, while the Nadaq closed down by 1.58%. By taking a glance at the chart below one can see that yesterday�s session, sent shivers down investor�s spines, especially as volume exploded higher.

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Inflationary pressures increase, Housing data disappoints

dodjit — Thu, 19 Nov 2009 14:18:57 GMT

It was the commodity market that took center stage yesterday as the Dollar dropped due to disappointing economic data from the U.S. Already during Asian hours the Dollar had lost its ground against counterparts, allowing Gold and Silver to climb to new levels. Gold the current leading commodity hit a new high for 2009, closing the session just under $1150. Silver, a commodity that has recently been lagging, soared higher throughout the session, but lost its steam as it ran into trend line resistance.

From a technical point of view, silver is now at the top of its trend line within its major uptrend. Even though indicators are still showing relative strength, current levels could act as resistance, especially if the broader market fails to continue higher.

Economic data helped to spark buying on the commodity market yesterday, as inflation numbers from the U.S showed that despite the slow recovery, prices are starting to increase. One must note that even though higher prices are often thought of as a good thing, especially when they rise due to healthy consumer consumption, rising prices along with low consumer consumption can often result in market fear, sending investors into safe-haven assets such as Gold, to hedge against inflation.

Consumer prices rose 0.3% in October with prices excluding food and energy rising 0.2%. In addition, the housing market continued to disappoint, releasing weaker than expected housing start and building permits. The numbers came out at 0.53M and 0.55M, respectively.

On the different currency pairs, Dollar counterparts managed to gain ground throughout the session, but failed to present any major moves. The GBP/USD presented an interesting session as the BOE released its minutes, showing that even though the members voted to leave rates at a low of 0.5%, not all the MPC members were in sync regarding future monetary actions. The minutes showed that policy makers are still debating whether the U.K�s economy will require further stimulus or not. Following the release, the markets took the news more than lightly and presented extreme volatility. The GBP/USD bounced back and forth by over 60 pips, before settling down to close with a minor loss.

The EUR/USD finished the session with a mild gain, while the Australian Dollar finished the session unchanged.

Read the full article at Dodjit.com

Dollar Falls on Fed Official's Rate Comments And The Wild Card Gold 19 Nov 2009

forexqs.blogspot.com — Thu, 19 Nov 2009 11:50:11 GMT

Dollar Falls on Fed Official's Rate Comments And The Wild Card Gold 19 Nov 2009
Thursday, 19 Nov 2009
Dollar Falls on Fed Official's Rate Comments

The EUR advanced on the U.S dollar Wednesday, but failed to reach the $1.50 mark as investors zeroed in on a Fed official's comment suggesting key interest rates could remain low until 2012. Federal Reserve officials were quoted saying that the Fed could keep short-term fed funds rates at near-zero until early 2012. The ultra-low rates weigh on the U.S dollar, as investors use the buck to fund investments in higher-yielding assets.

The Wild Card
Gold

Gold prices rose significantly in the last month and peaked at $1141.25 for an ounce. However, the daily chart's RSI is floating in an overbought territory suggesting that a recent upwards trend is loosing steam and a bearish correction is impending. This might be a good opportunity for forex traders to enter the trend at a very early stage.

http://forexqs.blogspot.com

Stocks Surged, But the Dollar Didn�t Show the Same Intraday Movement

dodjit — Tue, 17 Nov 2009 08:48:53 GMT

The week started on a positive note, as the major stock indices soared higher yesterday, accompanied by inclining volume. Even though economic data was mixed, and Bernanke tried to support the declining Dollar, investors looked past the data, extracting further profits from the recent rally.

The buying was broad based and was led by the Energy sector. Financials also helped to push the indices higher, closing with a gain of 2.29%. From a technical point of view the S&P500 managed to breach its prior high during yesterday�s session and joined the Nasdaq and the Dow Jones Industrial Average, by claiming a higher-high.

On the data front, Retail sales jumped by 1.4%, compared to an expected 1% figure, while the core figure came in under expectations. Furthermore the NY Empire State Manufacturing Index disappointed analysts, releasing a 23.50 result, compared to an expected 30.00. One must note that the NY Empire State Manufacturing Index measures the economic health of the manufacturing sector by a survey of approximately 200 manufacturers in the New York State.

Read the full article at our Trading Reports Section

Be Careful, This Rally is Now Running Only on Fumes

dodjit — Mon, 16 Nov 2009 17:19:37 GMT

The financial market has experienced one of its worst patches in over 70 years, as a housing crisis during 2007 led to a financial one, which then affected all economies from across the globe. While some are still comparing the current recession to previous ones, others are observing the market�s price movements, as 2009 has turned out to be an outstanding year for riskier assets, climbing to astonishing levels, only last seen prior to the economic downturn.

Stock indices have retraced to stable levels, while once known as �high yielding currencies�, have regained a fair portion of their 2008�s avalanche. The Aussie, for example, has jumped by over 50% since the start of 2009, as investors have taken advantage of the massive drop, seeking returns from high yielding assets.

By taking a glance at the chart below one can see that a sudden change in monetary actions, provided stability to high yielders at the start of the year. This was then followed by a massive rally as currencies such as the Aussie, yielding then a 2.5% rate, attracted cash that was sitting on the side lines.

Read the full article at http://bit.ly/1zoUHZ

Forex Video

The S&P Stumbles Around its prior highs, Euro Loses its Steam

dodjit — Fri, 13 Nov 2009 18:50:11 GMT

After presenting a dramatic rally, the S&P500 hit a wall of resistance yesterday, dropping further into its recent range. Better than expected jobless claims and good results from the giant Wal-Mart didn�t help the intraday session, as investors took money off the table around high levels.
According to yesterday�s reading, the U.S market showed minor improvement in the employment sector as weekly jobless claims rose by only 502k, compared to an expected 512k. The number was better than the previous week, which showed a rise of 514k. Even though the number sparked some optimism at the start of the session it wasn�t enough to hold the indices in positive territory, especially as last week�s unemployment figure hit a whopping 10.2%.
The S&P500 dropped and closed the session below 1090 after hitting previous resistance. For the critical levels including the Fibonacci levels, see yesterday�s market briefing; major weekly technical levels

The Euro Feels the Pressure

On the Forex market the Dollar index bounced higher, forming a double bottom around the 75 level. Even though most of the pairs didn�t present dramatic moves, the EUR/USD tumbled after touching its prior high.
The EUR/USD wiped out all of its weekly gains and closed the session on prior resistance, which is now acting as support. Economic data also didn�t help the Euro as Industrial production dropped by 0.3% after showing a prior 1.2% figure. The number was under expectations and weighed on bullish sentiment.
On the upside the ECB monthly bulletin showed positive numbers. The GDP figure was revised from -4.5% to -3.9%. Furthermore the report showed that growth is expected to be at 0.1% in 2010. Regarding inflation, the numbers should stay the same and are expected to come out around 1.2%,

From a technical point of view the EUR/USD has now dropped into a minor range of 1.4850-1.5050. While it is still too early to determine a double top scenario, further negative sessions from the U.S could weigh on the Euro and drive the pair to lower levels. One must note that the trend line will act as a critical support level, as in the past.

Read he full article at Dodjit.com

Tremors Around Current Technical Levels

dodjit — Wed, 11 Nov 2009 09:11:13 GMT

It was a quiet day on Wall Street yesterday as the major indices bounced back and forth across their opening market. Even though the indices received a boost at the start of the session, backed by Monday�s extreme intraday rally, they quickly lost their steam going forward. Furthermore, minor strength from the Dollar yesterday, sent stocks back to their starting mark as investors remained cautious going forward.

From a technical point of view, one must note that even though the Dow Jones has now broken its prior high, the S&P500 and Nasdaq are still trading around their previous peaks. The Dow finished the session with a gain of 0.2%, while the S&P closed in negative territory, with a loss of 0.14%.

According to the monthly blue chip survey, economists are still optimistic and reckon that the U.S economy is now on a healthy path back to economic growth. According to the survey the economic growth should increase by 2.7%, but unemployment will drag along and decrease at a very slow rate. Approximately 52% of the economists speculated that unemployment will decrease to 7%, only in 2013.

Financials lagged for most of the session, but failed to present a major drop due to AIG. According to Bloomberg, Moody�s said that the insurer will be able to repay most, or all of Treasury�s investment, if the financial markets continue to show stability.

The lagging sector of the day was the Industrial sector, finishing with a loss of -0.58%

Read the full article at Dodjit.com

A 15 Month Low for the Dollar, Stocks Climb to New Highs

dodjit — Tue, 10 Nov 2009 16:18:52 GMT

Wall Street presented a phenomenal session yesterday, closing with gains of approximately 2%. Even though some were skeptic about the intraday rally, due to recent economic data, investors pushed it aside, sending the major indices to new highs. The Dow Jones Industrial Average locked in further gains and closed at a 52 week high.

Yesterday�s session was influenced mainly by various statements and news of acquisitions by major leading companies. Google announced that it intends to expand its digital advertising empire to ****** ****** by acquiring AdMob, a ****** advertising start-up. According to the New York Times, AdMob is one of the top sellers of banner ads on ****** applications and web pages that can be retrieved from ****** ******.

The G20 also had an influence on the session, stating that they vote to leave interest rates at current low levels to further aid the wounded global economy. According to a released statement, G20 officials believe that the global economy is now starting to heal, but will require further government help. Officials also expressed their concerns about the employment situation. One must note that recent data from the U.S showed that unemployment had reached a whopping 10.2%.

From a technical point of view stocks climbed higher with the Dow Jones leading the way. The Index completed its prior low and climbed above its prior high. The Nasdaq gapped higher at the start of the session and is now trading just under its prior high.

Dow Jones Daily Chart

Read the full article at Dodjit.com

Unemployment Soars, the Dollar Falls, Investors are Still Optimistic

dodjit — Mon, 09 Nov 2009 18:00:49 GMT

Investor and traders were fairly optimistic last week as market participants pushed stocks and various currency pairs higher on beliefs that global growth has returned to the forefront. The broader market, S&P 500 Index, gained 3.2% for the week closing at 1069. The Dow Industrial Average regained ground above 10,000, showing investors that despite the unpleasant data stocks are holding up. The strong correlation between the dollar and the equity markets continued, and although gold pushed to new all time highs, the majority of the commodity complex lost ground during the week.

The markets started the week on a positive note as news in Asia, US and Europe showed that the manufacturing sector was improving. The readings in all the regions were better than expected and all signaled manufacturing expansion.

On Tuesday the markets continued to remain subdued even after the Reserve Bank of Australia raised its benchmark interest rate a quarter of a point signaling continued strong growth prospects in Australia. Central bank Governor Stevens said that �rates could continue to climb gradually�, words that signaled to the market that inflation was well contained.

On Thursday the markets received additional positive news from Europe which contributed the powerful rally in the equity markets. The European Commission released new forecasts that generally better than its previous releases. The EC now expects the euro zone economy to expand by 0.7% next year. This was a vast improvement, especially as officials previously thought that the region's economy would contract by 0.1%. One must note that the IMF is less sanguine and forecasts a 0.3% expansion next year, half of what the EC envisions. The EC places this year's contraction at -4%, while the IMF see it a tad deeper at -4.2%. The EC sees unemployment rising to 10.7% in 2010 and the IMF 10.9% in 2011.

Read the full article at Dodjit.com

Commodities fail to climb, Gold shows relative strength, Will $1100 act as resistance

dodjit — Mon, 09 Nov 2009 16:44:06 GMT

Friday�s unemployment rate in the U.S had a surprising subtle affect on the market as the number climbed to a 26 year high. The Bureau of Labor Statistics released a whopping 10.2% result, far worse than analyst�s expectations. In addition they showed a -190k NFP figure, compared to expectations of -175k. Even though the numbers strengthened President Barack Obama�s recent comments, stating that while there are significant signs of economic stability the unemployment situation could see higher levels.

Despite the terrible news, stocks held on to Thursday�s strength and closed the session with minor gains. The S&P500 finished the session with a 0.25% gain. Most investors realized that even though the number was a horrifying one, the data is classed as a lagging one, meaning that a rebound in employment will occur once the U.S starts to fully pick up.

On the commodity market Crude oil and Silver failed to present the same relative strength, compared to Gold. Crude oil dropped during Friday�s session and continued to slide towards its prior resistance level. When taking a glance at the Silver chart one can see that this precious metal also failed to bounce higher and is now showing minor signs of a lower high.

Gold, contrary to other metals is still presenting relative strength due to recent news headlines. According to Bloomberg news, India made one of the largest purchases last week, in over 30 years. One must note that even though India is known to be a large purchaser of Gold, primarily in the form of Jewelry, this time round analysts speculated that the buying was due to investment diversification.

From a technical point of view, Gold is now coming close to its upper trend line resistance, while certain indicators are pointing to negative divergence. Even though this pair could see higher levels, as investors remain confused about the economic future, and prefer to seek refuge in this commodity, the charts are pointing to a possible slight correction.

Will $1100 act as a resistance or will further divergence occur between these commodities as Gold continues higher?

Gold - Daily Chart

Read the full weekly report at Dodjit.com

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A Higher Low- This Was What We Were Looking For

dodjit — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 09:47:10 GMT

It was a dramatic day on the Forex market yesterday as traders were faced with two rate decisions and a massive turnaround on Wall Street.

The Bank of England took the stage first releasing a no- change status. Even though the bank held at its low of 0.5%, officials expanded their quantitative easing program by adding $25 billion. Bank officials stated that while the global economy is now facing a slow recovery, the BOE�s major concern is still economic growth. The bank stressed on that point mentioning that inflation isn�t their primary concern, especially as the numbers are at tolerate levels.

As always the ECB followed, with their decision and statement. This time round, Trichet was more lenient with his speech, expressing his optimism about the economic future. Trichet did express mild concerns about consumer spending and also stressed on the importance of a strong U.S Dollar. The bank held at 1% as the Euro-zone showed signs of a promising future.

On the Forex market the Dollar lost its ground as better than expected results from both the banks and a positive session on Wall-Street, sent investors into riskier assets. One must note that the Dollar�s decline was minor, as most investors were preparing for what is going to be a hectic Friday. See yesterday video report, for further information.

Dollar Index- Daily Chart

Read the full article at Dodjit.com

YH: Layer_c5

edter1122 — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 06:53:19 GMT

The Fed Disappoints Wall Street, the Dollar Didn�t Show Relative Strength

dodjit — Thu, 05 Nov 2009 10:04:49 GMT

It was an interest rate decision day yesterday, as the Fed released its statement mentioning that even though the economy is recuperating, there are still concerns regarding consumer consumption, which derives from the employment situation. The Fed left it rates at a range of 0-0.25%, stressing that it will leave its rates at their current low level for an extended period.

The markets took the news more than lightly, erasing their intraday gains, after bouncing higher at the start of the session. Even though additional fundamental data helped to spark buying throughout the session, including a better ADP result, of -203.00k, the market lost its steam during the session. One must note that the ADP result was better that last month�s result, but came out lower than expected.

After presenting some volatility the major indices began to decline, led lower by the financial sector. The fed also mentioned that while the overall market has improved the battered financial market didn�t show signs of improvement during October. The major indices closed mixed with the S&P500 holding on to positive territory. The Nasdaq closed the session lower, down by 0.09%.

From a technical point of view, the S&P500 is still holding above it prior low, but is yet to complete its current turnaround and form a higher low.

Read the full article at Dodjit.com