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Default Europe Roundup - British Manufacturers' Output Expectations Weakest Since 1980

Thursday, the scene remained relatively calm in the Eurozone. Outside the euro region, survey data showed that UK manufacturers' output expectations weakened to a level last seen in September 1980. Elsewhere, the Central Bank of Iceland lowered its policy rate for the first time since the crisis-hit country agreed a US$10 billion financial aid with the International Monetary Fund.

Eurozone

There remains room for the European Central Bank to make further interest rate cuts, Governing Council Member Guy Quaden said in an interview with Belgium's Trends-Tendances magazine. "Unlike other central banks we have not completely exhausted our margin for maneuver on interest rates," the policymaker said.

Italy's statistical office ISTAT announced that the total trade deficit stood at EUR 3.59 billion in January, widening from EUR 0.41 billion deficit in the previous month. Economists had predicted a deficit of EUR 2.48 billion.

The Netherlands Central Bureau of Statistics announced that the consumer confidence stood at minus 34 in March, down from minus 30 in February. Economists had predicted the index to decline to minus 32. The office also reported that the jobless rate stood at 4.1% in the December to February period, up from 3.9% recorded in the November to January period. Economists had expected the jobless rate to rise to 4%.

Ireland's Central Statistical Office said that the manufacturing price index rose 3.9% year-over-year in February, larger than the 3.2% rise recorded in the previous month.

The National Statistical Service of Greece said the jobless rate stood at 7.9% in the fourth quarter, up from 7.2% rise seen in the previous quarter. A year ago, the jobless rate was 8.1%.

The Statistical Service of the Republic of Cyprus said the country's gross domestic product or GDP in real terms rose at a pace of 3.7% in 2008, slower than a 4.4% increase in 2007. The agency also announced that the industrial turnover index rose 8.7% year-on-year in December, faster than a 3.2% rise seen in the previous month.

The Statistical Office of the Republic of Slovenia said the seasonally adjusted consumer confidence indicator rose one percentage point in March from February. This was mainly due to an increase in consumer's assessment about the possibility of saving in the next 12 months.

The National Bank of Belgium said in a report that the consumer confidence indicator stood at minus 24 in March, at the same level seen in the previous month. A year ago, the index was minus 3.

Rest of Europe

The latest monthly Industrial Trends survey of the Confederation of British Industry found that only 8% of UK firms expect their production volume to increase in coming three months, while 56% said they would fall. Thus, a resulting balance of minus 48% expects output volume to decline over the coming three months, slightly weaker than minus 44% recorded in the previous month. The survey revealed that around 51% of firms reported below normal export order book levels, which was the lowest since 1998. Nearly 10% of manufacturers intend to reduce domestic prices in the coming three months.

UK's gross mortgage lending declined 15% month-on-month to an estimated GBP 9.9 billion in February, the Council of Mortgage Lenders said. Compared to the previous year, it was a fall of 60% and the value was the lowest monthly lending since February 2001.

In the UK, the public sector net cash requirement was GBP 4.4 billion in February, higher than the net cash requirement of GBP 1.6 billion in the previous year, a report by the Office for National Statistics said. Economists expected a net cash requirement of GBP 4.5 billion.

The Bank of England said in a report that the money supply increased 18.8% year-over-year in February, larger than the 17.4% rise recorded in the previous month. On a monthly basis, money supply rose 1.4% in February, slower than the 2.4% rise in the preceding month. The money supply growth came in line with economists' expectation.

The Icelandic central bank cut its key interest rate by 100 basis points to 17% from a record high of 18%, where it had remained since October 2008. The Sedlabanki also announced that more steps would be put in place over the next few months for the restructuring of the country's crushed financial system.

Switzerland's economic expectations improved slightly in March from the previous month, results of the latest financial market test carried out by the Centre for European Economic Research, or ZEW, in cooperation with Credit Suisse revealed. The ZEW said its economic sentiment indicator marked a slight increase of 0.6 points to the minus 57.1 mark in March. The measure for current economic situation in Switzerland continued to worsen in March. The respective indicator shed 11.8 points to reach minus 57.1 mark.

The Federal Administration of Customs said the Swiss trade surplus in February declined to CHF 731 million from CHF 1.98 billion in January. Exports dropped 3.7% month-on-month in real terms, taking the annual fall to 16.3% in February. Switzerland's watch exports continued to drop for the fourth straight month in February as demand slows, the Federation of the Swiss Watch Industry FH said. The value of watch exports plunged 22.4% year-on-year in February to CHF 1.0 billion. This is the second consecutive fall of this magnitude and the fourth consecutive month of decline.

Statistics Sweden said the jobless rate increased by 1.9 percentage points to 8% in February from last year. Economists expected the rate to come in at 7.4%.

Hungary's Central Statistical Office announced that the average gross earnings increased 5.2% year-over-year in January, larger than the 4.6% rise recorded in the previous month. The average gross earnings growth came in line with economists' expectation.

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