May 28, 2007 - June 01, 2007

*View on USD/JPY: again at the long standing maximums*

*Weeks forecast for USD/JPY

*+384 pips* - this is the trades result for the last week


USD/JPY is shifting focus to the January-February 122.10/122.20 double top.

Last week was the fifth week of declines for the Yen, the longest since a 6-week trend in September-October 2005. Last Wednesday 121.90 high would mark minor resistance before 122.10 next resistance. The main support is still at the 120.50 level.

*Script 1 (40%): Side exchange fluctuations within the 121.00-122.20 area. *
Next week the course is possible to remain in the region achieved of 121-122 (testing the January's maximum at 122.20), afterwards the further direction will get obvious (either break out 122.20 up or decline to the bottom of the fluctuations range).

*Script 2 (30%): A downward trend to 119.50/120.00 to the March trend line testing. *

An upward trend line lies in the 120.00 level region. It is very possible the pair decline to it, afterwards either a new upward impulse with the 122.20 level achieving/breaking may occur or trend line break down with a further decline to 118.00 (115-116 in prospect).

*Script 3 (30%): An upward trend above 122.20. *

It must not be ruled out the January's top level 122.20 break up. It may be both a short term impulse with a decline following to 121.00 and the beginning of an upward trend to 125.00 level region.

*Resistances*

121.90 - the last week resistance (a new May's minimum).
122.10 - the upper margin of the upward fluctuations channel.
122.20 - January, 2007 maximum - yearly resistance.
125.00 - expected rise target level if 122.20 breaking out.

*Supports*

120.50/70 - the last two weeks support.
120.00 - March rising trend lines, key support.
117.60 - April, 2007 minimum, upper triangle line support as well.
115.20 - March, 2007 yearly minimum - yearly support.

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